Jennifer Williamson

Many peatlands in Europe and North America have been developed for agriculture for over a century, whilst in Southeast Asia development has largely occurred since 1990. Cultivation of drained peatlands now supports the livelihoods of large numbers of people, and the ongoing economic development of countries such as Indonesia and Malaysia. However, peat subsidence linked to plantation drainage represents both an environmental and a socio-economic challenge, associated with elevated CO2 emissions, impacts on adjacent forest habitat, and long-term changes in plantation drainability. Whilst the fundamental challenges presented by peat subsidence are broadly recognised, the long-term rates and the potential for mitigation or avoidance of subsidence remain uncertain. We analysed over 2000 site-years of subsidence measurements from 312 sites in Sumatra, Indonesia, collected under Acacia pulpwood plantation and adjacent native forest, representing the largest peat subsidence dataset published to date. Subsidence averaged 4.3 cm yr−1 in the Acacia plantations, and extended at least 300 m into adjacent forest. Mean water table depth (WTD) was the best predictor of subsidence rate in both plantation and forest areas. We did not find conclusive evidence that subsidence was intrinsically faster under Acacia plantation than under native forest or (by comparison with previous studies) oil palm plantations for the same level of drainage. Our results suggest that raising average WTDs to the Indonesian Government's 40 cm target could – if practically and economically viable means of achieving this can be developed – reduce current plantation subsidence rates by 25–30%. Whilst some degree of peat subsidence under any form of plantation management may be unavoidable, these reductions would – if achieved at scale – both increase the economic lifetime of the plantations, and simultaneously deliver reductions in CO2 emissions of national and global significance.

Global Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) measurements made over the past decades provide insights into the lateral extent of magmatic domains, and capture volcanic process on scales useful for volcano monitoring. Satellite-based SAR imagery has great potential for monitoring topographic change, the distribution of eruptive products and surface displacements (InSAR) at subaerial volcanoes. However, there are challenges in applying it routinely, as would be required for the reliable operational assessment of hazard. The deformation detectable depends upon satellite repeat time and swath widths, relative to the spatial and temporal scales of volcanological processes. We describe the characteristics of InSAR-measured volcano deformation over the past two decades, highlighting both the technique’s capabilities and its limitations as a monitoring tool. To achieve this, we draw on two global datasets of volcano deformation: the Smithsonian Institution Volcanoes of the World database and the Centre for the Observation and Modelling of Earthquakes, Volcanoes and Tectonics volcano deformation catalogue, as well as compiling some measurement characteristics and interpretations from the primary literature. We find that a higher proportion of InSAR observations capture non-eruptive and non-magmatic processes than those from ground-based instrument networks, and that both transient (< month) and long-duration (> 5 years) deformation episodes are under-represented. However, satellite radar is already used to assess the development of extended periods of unrest and long-lasting eruptions, and improved spatial resolution and coverage have resulted in the detection of previously unrecognised deformation at both ends of the spatial scale (~ 10 to > 1000 km2). ‘Baseline’ records of past InSAR measurements, including ‘null’ results, are fundamental for any future interpretation of interferograms in terms of hazard‚ both by providing information about past deformation at an individual volcano, and for assessing the characteristics of deformation that are likely to be detectable (and undetectable) using InSAR. More than half of all InSAR deformation signals attributed to magmatic processes have sources in the shallow crust (< 5 km depth). While the depth distribution of InSAR-derived deformation sources is affected by measurement limitations, their lateral distribution provides information about the extent of active magmatic domains. Deformation is common (24% of all potentially magmatic events) at loci ≥5 km away from the nearest active volcanic vent. This demonstrates that laterally extensive active magmatic domains are not exceptional, but can comprise the shallowest part of trans-crustal magmatic systems in a range of volcanic settings.

Abstract As climate change may modify the hydrological cycle significantly, understanding the impact on river flow is important because it affects long‐term water resources planning. Here, we describe a high‐resolution British assessment of changes in river flows in the 2050s under 11 different realisations of HadRM3. In winter, river flows may either increase or decrease, with a wide range of possible decreases in summer flow. These results should encourage adaptation that copes with a broad range of future hydrological conditions. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley &amp; Sons, Ltd.