Andy Young

A new approach to regionalization of conceptual rainfall‐runoff models is presented on the basis of ensemble modeling and model averaging. It is argued that in principle, this approach represents an improvement on the established procedure of regressing parameter values against numeric catchment descriptors. Using daily data from 127 catchments in the United Kingdom, alternative schemes for defining prior and posterior likelihoods of candidate models are tested in terms of accuracy of ungauged catchment predictions. A probability distributed model structure is used, and alternative parameter sets are identified using data from each of a number of gauged catchments. Using the models of the 10 gauged catchments most similar to the ungauged catchment provides generally the best results and performs significantly better than the regression method, especially for predicting low flows. The ensemble of candidate models provides an indication of uncertainty in ungauged catchment predictions, although this is not a robust estimate of possible flow ranges, and frequently fails to encompass flow peaks. Options for developing the new method to resolve these problems are discussed.

Abstract. The development of regionalised hydrological models or procedures for estimating flow duration statistics has been the subject of international research since the 1970s. Historically these models have been based on multivariate statistical models that relate flow statistics to the physical and climatic characteristics of a catchment. The a priori classification of catchments has often been a component of this analysis. This paper discusses the background to the development of such models, with particular emphasis on the United Kingdom; it describes a new region of influence approach to estimating flow duration statistics and compares the performance of this method with current multivariate regression based methods for estimating flow duration statistics within the United Kingdom. Keywords: hydrological models, regionalisation, river networks, water resources, flow duration curves, region of influence

Abstract As climate change may modify the hydrological cycle significantly, understanding the impact on river flow is important because it affects long‐term water resources planning. Here, we describe a high‐resolution British assessment of changes in river flows in the 2050s under 11 different realisations of HadRM3. In winter, river flows may either increase or decrease, with a wide range of possible decreases in summer flow. These results should encourage adaptation that copes with a broad range of future hydrological conditions. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.