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Ahmed Afifi

University of Toledo Medical Center

ORCID: 0000-0002-4294-8217

Publishes on Congenital Heart Disease Studies, Cardiac Valve Diseases and Treatments, Venous Thromboembolism Diagnosis and Management. 143 papers and 2.1k citations.

143Publications
2.1kTotal Citations

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Global burden of 292 causes of death in 204 countries and territories and 660 subnational locations, 1990–2023: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2023
Mohsen Naghavi, Hmwe Hmwe Kyu, A Bhoomadevi et al.|The Lancet|2025
Cited by 222Open Access

BACKGROUND: Timely and comprehensive analyses of causes of death stratified by age, sex, and location are essential for shaping effective health policies aimed at reducing global mortality. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2023 provides cause-specific mortality estimates measured in counts, rates, and years of life lost (YLLs). GBD 2023 aimed to enhance our understanding of the relationship between age and cause of death by quantifying the probability of dying before age 70 years (70q0) and the mean age at death by cause and sex. This study enables comparisons of the impact of causes of death over time, offering a deeper understanding of how these causes affect global populations. METHODS: GBD 2023 produced estimates for 292 causes of death disaggregated by age-sex-location-year in 204 countries and territories and 660 subnational locations for each year from 1990 until 2023. We used a modelling tool developed for GBD, the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm), to estimate cause-specific death rates for most causes. We computed YLLs as the product of the number of deaths for each cause-age-sex-location-year and the standard life expectancy at each age. Probability of death was calculated as the chance of dying from a given cause in a specific age period, for a specific population. Mean age at death was calculated by first assigning the midpoint age of each age group for every death, followed by computing the mean of all midpoint ages across all deaths attributed to a given cause. We used GBD death estimates to calculate the observed mean age at death and to model the expected mean age across causes, sexes, years, and locations. The expected mean age reflects the expected mean age at death for individuals within a population, based on global mortality rates and the population's age structure. Comparatively, the observed mean age represents the actual mean age at death, influenced by all factors unique to a location-specific population, including its age structure. As part of the modelling process, uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated using the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles from a 250-draw distribution for each metric. Findings are reported as counts and age-standardised rates. Methodological improvements for cause-of-death estimates in GBD 2023 include a correction for the misclassification of deaths due to COVID-19, updates to the method used to estimate COVID-19, and updates to the CODEm modelling framework. This analysis used 55 761 data sources, including vital registration and verbal autopsy data as well as data from surveys, censuses, surveillance systems, and cancer registries, among others. For GBD 2023, there were 312 new country-years of vital registration cause-of-death data, 3 country-years of surveillance data, 51 country-years of verbal autopsy data, and 144 country-years of other data types that were added to those used in previous GBD rounds. FINDINGS: The initial years of the COVID-19 pandemic caused shifts in long-standing rankings of the leading causes of global deaths: it ranked as the number one age-standardised cause of death at Level 3 of the GBD cause classification hierarchy in 2021. By 2023, COVID-19 dropped to the 20th place among the leading global causes, returning the rankings of the leading two causes to those typical across the time series (ie, ischaemic heart disease and stroke). While ischaemic heart disease and stroke persist as leading causes of death, there has been progress in reducing their age-standardised mortality rates globally. Four other leading causes have also shown large declines in global age-standardised mortality rates across the study period: diarrhoeal diseases, tuberculosis, stomach cancer, and measles. Other causes of death showed disparate patterns between sexes, notably for deaths from conflict and terrorism in some locations. A large reduction in age-standardised rates of YLLs occurred for neonatal disorders. Despite this, neonatal disorders remained the leading cause of global YLLs over the period studied, except in 2021, when COVID-19 was temporarily the leading cause. Compared to 1990, there has been a considerable reduction in total YLLs in many vaccine-preventable diseases, most notably diphtheria, pertussis, tetanus, and measles. In addition, this study quantified the mean age at death for all-cause mortality and cause-specific mortality and found noticeable variation by sex and location. The global all-cause mean age at death increased from 46·8 years (95% UI 46·6-47·0) in 1990 to 63·4 years (63·1-63·7) in 2023. For males, mean age increased from 45·4 years (45·1-45·7) to 61·2 years (60·7-61·6), and for females it increased from 48·5 years (48·1-48·8) to 65·9 years (65·5-66·3), from 1990 to 2023. The highest all-cause mean age at death in 2023 was found in the high-income super-region, where the mean age for females reached 80·9 years (80·9-81·0) and for males 74·8 years (74·8-74·9). By comparison, the lowest all-cause mean age at death occurred in sub-Saharan Africa, where it was 38·0 years (37·5-38·4) for females and 35·6 years (35·2-35·9) for males in 2023. Lastly, our study found that all-cause 70q0 decreased across each GBD super-region and region from 2000 to 2023, although with large variability between them. For females, we found that 70q0 notably increased from drug use disorders and conflict and terrorism. Leading causes that increased 70q0 for males also included drug use disorders, as well as diabetes. In sub-Saharan Africa, there was an increase in 70q0 for many non-communicable diseases (NCDs). Additionally, the mean age at death from NCDs was lower than the expected mean age at death for this super-region. By comparison, there was an increase in 70q0 for drug use disorders in the high-income super-region, which also had an observed mean age at death lower than the expected value. INTERPRETATION: We examined global mortality patterns over the past three decades, highlighting-with enhanced estimation methods-the impacts of major events such as the COVID-19 pandemic, in addition to broader trends such as increasing NCDs in low-income regions that reflect ongoing shifts in the global epidemiological transition. This study also delves into premature mortality patterns, exploring the interplay between age and causes of death and deepening our understanding of where targeted resources could be applied to further reduce preventable sources of mortality. We provide essential insights into global and regional health disparities, identifying locations in need of targeted interventions to address both communicable and non-communicable diseases. There is an ever-present need for strengthened health-care systems that are resilient to future pandemics and the shifting burden of disease, particularly among ageing populations in regions with high mortality rates. Robust estimates of causes of death are increasingly essential to inform health priorities and guide efforts toward achieving global health equity. The need for global collaboration to reduce preventable mortality is more important than ever, as shifting burdens of disease are affecting all nations, albeit at different paces and scales. FUNDING: Gates Foundation.

Causes of death after breast cancer diagnosis: A US population‐based analysis
Cited by 210Open Access

BACKGROUND: The focus on noncancer causes of death in patients with breast cancer (BC) remains superficial. The objective of the current study was to assess and quantify causes of death after BC diagnosis. METHODS: In total, 754,270 women with BC in the United States who were diagnosed during 2000 through 2015 and retrieved from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) program were studied. Standardized mortality ratios (SMRs) for causes of death were calculated. RESULTS: Of the included patients, 183,002 (24.3%) died during the follow-up period. The greatest proportion of deaths (46.2%) occurred within 1 to 5 years after diagnosis. Most deaths occurred from BC itself or from other cancers, and the number of BC deaths decreased as more years passed after diagnosis. The most common noncancer causes of death within <10 years after diagnosis were heart diseases followed by cerebrovascular diseases. However, >10 years after diagnosis, the most common noncancer causes of death were heart diseases followed by Alzheimer disease. Patients had a statistically significant higher risk of death from chronic liver diseases within 5 to 10 years after diagnosis compared with the general population (SMR, 1.23; 95% CI, 1.09-1.38) and had statistically significant higher risks of death from Alzheimer disease (SMR, 1.21; 95% CI, 1.14-1.29) and from diseases of the heart (SMR, 1.06; 95% CI, 1.02-1.09) >10 years after diagnosis. CONCLUSIONS: Although BC remains the most common cause of death after BC diagnosis, other non-BC causes of death (mainly heart and cerebrovascular diseases) represent a significant number of deaths among patients with BC. These findings provide important insight into how BC survivors should be counselled regarding future health risks.

Causes of Death Among Patients With Metastatic Prostate Cancer in the US From 2000 to 2016
Cited by 116Open Access

Importance: Owing to improved survival among US patients with prostate cancer (PC), patients tend to live long enough after a PC diagnosis for non-cancer-related comorbidities to be associated with their overall survival. Although studies have investigated causes of death among patients with localized PC, data are lacking regarding causes of death among patients with metastatic PC. Objective: To assess causes of death among US patients with metastatic PC from 2000 to 2016. Design, Setting, and Participants: This retrospective cohort study used data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program database to analyze a sample of 26 168 US men who received a diagnosis of metastatic PC from January 1, 2000, to December 31, 2016. Data were analyzed from February 2 to July 28, 2020. Exposure: Diagnosis of metastatic PC. Main Outcomes and Measures: Standardized mortality ratios (SMRs) for different causes of death were calculated by dividing the observed number of deaths from each cause of death by the expected number of deaths in the age-matched US male population for the same period, adjusting for age and race/ethnicity. Results: Of 26 168 patients with metastatic PC included in the analysis, 48.9% were aged 50 to 70 years (mean age at diagnosis, 70.83 years); 74.5% were White individuals, and 72.7% received a diagnosis of stage M1b metastatic PC. A total of 16 732 patients (63.9%) died during the follow-up period. The mean age at death was 74.13 years. Most deaths (59.0%) occurred within the latency period of 2 years after diagnosis of metastatic PC, whereas 31.6% occurred 2 to 5 years after diagnosis and 9.4% occurred more than 5 years after diagnosis. Of the total deaths, 13 011 (77.8%) were from PC, 924 (5.5%) were from other cancers, and 2797 (16.7%) were from noncancer causes. During all latency periods, the most common noncancer causes of death were cardiovascular diseases (SMR, 1.34; 95% CI, 1.26-1.42), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (SMR, 1.19; 95% CI, 1.03-1.36), and cerebrovascular diseases (SMR, 1.31; 95% CI, 1.13-1.50). Conclusions and Relevance: In this cohort study, deaths from noncancer causes, including cardiovascular disease, constituted a substantial number of deaths among men with metastatic PC. Therapy and follow-up should be tailored to the needs of each patient with metastatic PC, and counseling regarding future health risks should be provided.

Perception and use of massive open online courses among medical students in a developing country: multicentre cross-sectional study
Cited by 80Open Access

OBJECTIVES: To assess the prevalence of awareness and use of massive open online courses (MOOCs) among medical undergraduates in Egypt as a developing country, as well as identifying the limitations and satisfaction of using these courses. DESIGN: A multicentre, cross-sectional study using a web-based, pilot-tested and self-administered questionnaire. SETTINGS: Ten out of 19 randomly selected medical schools in Egypt. PARTICIPANTS: 2700 undergraduate medical students were randomly selected, with an equal allocation of participants in each university and each study year. PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES: Primary outcome measures were the percentages of students who knew about MOOCs, students who enrolled and students who obtained a certificate. Secondary outcome measures included the limitations and satisfaction of using MOOCs through five-point Likert scale questions. RESULTS: Of 2527 eligible students, 2106 completed the questionnaire (response rate 83.3%). Of these students, 456 (21.7%) knew the term MOOCs or websites providing these courses. Out of the latter, 136 (29.8%) students had enrolled in at least one course, but only 25 (18.4%) had completed courses earning certificates. Clinical year students showed significantly higher rates of knowledge (p=0.009) and enrolment (p<0.001) than academic year students. The primary reasons for the failure of completion of courses included lack of time (105; 77.2%) and slow Internet speed (73; 53.7%). Regarding the 25 students who completed courses, 21 (84%) were satisfied with the overall experience. However, there was less satisfaction regarding student-instructor (8; 32%) and student-student (5; 20%) interactions. CONCLUSIONS: About one-fifth of Egyptian medical undergraduates have heard about MOOCs with only about 6.5% actively enrolled in courses. Students who actively participated showed a positive attitude towards the experience, but better time-management skills and faster Internet connection speeds are required. Further studies are needed to survey the enrolled students for a better understanding of their experience.