Publishes on Global Cancer Incidence and Screening, Colorectal Cancer Screening and Detection, Endometrial and Cervical Cancer Treatments. 52 papers and 23.3k citations.
The annual SEER Cancer Statistics Review (CSR), containing the most recent incidence, mortality, prevalence, and survival statistics, is published by the Cancer Statistics Branch of the NCI. The scope and purpose of the CSR follow a report to the Senate Appropriations Committee (Breslow, 1988), which recommended that a broad profile of cancer be presented regularly to the American public. This CSR includes incidence, mortality, prevalence, and survival data from 1975 through 2003, the most recent year for which data are available.
Trends in incidence or mortality rates over a specified time interval are usually described by the conventional annual per cent change (cAPC), under the assumption of a constant rate of change. When this assumption does not hold over the entire time interval, the trend may be characterized using the annual per cent changes from segmented analysis (sAPCs). This approach assumes that the change in rates is constant over each time partition defined by the transition points, but varies among different time partitions. Different groups (e.g. racial subgroups), however, may have different transition points and thus different time partitions over which they have constant rates of change, making comparison of sAPCs problematic across groups over a common time interval of interest (e.g. the past 10 years). We propose a new measure, the average annual per cent change (AAPC), which uses sAPCs to summarize and compare trends for a specific time period. The advantage of the proposed AAPC is that it takes into account the trend transitions, whereas cAPC does not and can lead to erroneous conclusions. In addition, when the trend is constant over the entire time interval of interest, the AAPC has the advantage of reducing to both cAPC and sAPC. Moreover, because the estimated AAPC is based on the segmented analysis over the entire data series, any selected subinterval within a single time partition will yield the same AAPC estimate--that is it will be equal to the estimated sAPC for that time partition. The cAPC, however, is re-estimated using data only from that selected subinterval; thus, its estimate may be sensitive to the subinterval selected. The AAPC estimation has been incorporated into the segmented regression (free) software Joinpoint, which is used by many registries throughout the world for characterizing trends in cancer rates.
BACKGROUND: The American Cancer Society (ACS), the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), the National Cancer Institute (NCI), and the North American Association of Central Cancer Registries (NAACCR) collaborate annually to provide updated information regarding cancer occurrence and trends in the U.S. This year's report features a special section on cancer survival. METHODS: Information concerning cancer cases was obtained from the NCI, CDC, and NAACCR and information concerning recorded cancer deaths was obtained from the CDC. The authors evaluated trends in age-adjusted cancer incidence and death rates by regression models and described and compared survival rates over time and across racial/ethnic populations. RESULTS: Incidence rates for all cancers combined decreased from 1991 through 2001, but stabilized from 1995 through 2001 when adjusted for delay in reporting. The incidence rates for female lung cancer decreased (although not statistically significant for delay adjusted) and mortality leveled off for the first time after increasing for many decades. Colorectal cancer incidence rates also decreased. Death rates decreased for all cancers combined (1.1% per year since 1993) and for many of the top 15 cancers occurring in men and women. The 5-year relative survival rates improved for all cancers combined and for most, but not all, cancers over 2 diagnostic periods (1975-1979 and 1995-2000). However, cancer-specific survival rates were lower and the risk of dying from cancer, once diagnosed, was higher in most minority populations compared with the white population. The relative risk of death from all cancers combined in each racial and ethnic population compared with non-Hispanic white men and women ranged from 1.16 in Hispanic white men to 1.69 in American Indian/Alaska Native men, with the exception of Asian/Pacific Islander women, whose risk of 1.01 was similar to that of non-Hispanic white women. CONCLUSIONS: The continued measurable declines for overall cancer death rates and for many of the top 15 cancers, along with improved survival rates, reflect progress in the prevention, early detection, and treatment of cancer. However, racial and ethnic disparities in survival and the risk of death from cancer, and geographic variation in stage distributions suggest that not all segments of the U.S. population have benefited equally from such advances.
BACKGROUND AND METHODS: To clarify the determinants of contemporary trends in mortality from coronary heart disease (CHD), we conducted surveillance of hospital admissions for myocardial infarction and of in-hospital and out-of-hospital deaths due to CHD among 35-to-74-year-old residents of four communities of varying size in the United States (a total of 352,481 persons in 1994). Between 1987 and 1994, we estimate that there were 11,869 hospitalizations for myocardial infarction (on the basis of 8572 hospitalizations sampled) and 3407 fatal coronary events (3023 sampled). RESULTS: The largest average annual decrease in mortality due to CHD occurred among white men (change in mortality, -4.7 percent; 95 percent confidence interval, -2.2 to -7.1 percent), followed by white women (-4.5 percent; 95 percent confidence interval, -0.7 to -8.2 percent), black women (-4.1 percent; 95 percent confidence interval, -10.3 to +2.5 percent), and black men (-2.5 percent; 95 percent confidence interval, -6.9 to +2.2 percent). Overall, in-hospital mortality from CHD fell by 5.1 percent per year, whereas out-of-hospital mortality declined by 3.6 percent per year. There was no evidence of a decline in the incidence of hospitalization for a first myocardial infarction among either men or women; in fact, such hospital admissions increased by 7.4 percent per year (95 percent confidence interval for the change, +0.5 to +14.8 percent) among black women and 2.9 percent per year (95 percent confidence interval, -3.6 to +9.9 percent) among black men. Rates of recurrent myocardial infarction decreased, and survival after myocardial infarction improved. CONCLUSIONS: From 1987 to 1994, we observed a stable or slightly increasing incidence of hospitalization for myocardial infarction. Nevertheless, there were significant annual decreases in mortality from CHD. The decline in mortality in the four communities we studied may be due largely to improvements in the treatment and secondary prevention of myocardial infarction.