A.R Folsom

CONTEXT: Plasma fibrinogen levels may be associated with the risk of coronary heart disease (CHD) and stroke. OBJECTIVE: To assess the relationships of fibrinogen levels with risk of major vascular and with risk of nonvascular outcomes based on individual participant data. DATA SOURCES: Relevant studies were identified by computer-assisted searches, hand searches of reference lists, and personal communication with relevant investigators. STUDY SELECTION: All identified prospective studies were included with information available on baseline fibrinogen levels and details of subsequent major vascular morbidity and/or cause-specific mortality during at least 1 year of follow-up. Studies were excluded if they recruited participants on the basis of having had a previous history of cardiovascular disease; participants with known preexisting CHD or stroke were excluded. DATA EXTRACTION: Individual records were provided on each of 154,211 participants in 31 prospective studies. During 1.38 million person-years of follow-up, there were 6944 first nonfatal myocardial infarctions or stroke events and 13,210 deaths. Cause-specific mortality was generally available. Analyses involved proportional hazards modeling with adjustment for confounding by known cardiovascular risk factors and for regression dilution bias. DATA SYNTHESIS: Within each age group considered (40-59, 60-69, and > or =70 years), there was an approximately log-linear association with usual fibrinogen level for the risk of any CHD, any stroke, other vascular (eg, non-CHD, nonstroke) mortality, and nonvascular mortality. There was no evidence of a threshold within the range of usual fibrinogen level studied at any age. The age- and sex- adjusted hazard ratio per 1-g/L increase in usual fibrinogen level for CHD was 2.42 (95% confidence interval [CI], 2.24-2.60); stroke, 2.06 (95% CI, 1.83-2.33); other vascular mortality, 2.76 (95% CI, 2.28-3.35); and nonvascular mortality, 2.03 (95% CI, 1.90-2.18). The hazard ratios for CHD and stroke were reduced to about 1.8 after further adjustment for measured values of several established vascular risk factors. In a subset of 7011 participants with available C-reactive protein values, the findings for CHD were essentially unchanged following additional adjustment for C-reactive protein. The associations of fibrinogen level with CHD or stroke did not differ substantially according to sex, smoking, blood pressure, blood lipid levels, or several features of study design. CONCLUSIONS: In this large individual participant meta-analysis, moderately strong associations were found between usual plasma fibrinogen level and the risks of CHD, stroke, other vascular mortality, and nonvascular mortality in a wide range of circumstances in healthy middle-aged adults. Assessment of any causal relevance of elevated fibrinogen levels to disease requires additional research.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the risk of invasive breast cancer associated with total and beverage-specific alcohol consumption and to evaluate whether dietary and nondietary factors modify the association. DATA SOURCES: We included in these analyses 6 prospective studies that had at least 200 incident breast cancer cases, assessed long-term intake of food and nutrients, and used a validated diet assessment instrument. The studies were conducted in Canada, the Netherlands, Sweden, and the United States. Alcohol intake was estimated by food frequency questionnaires in each study. The studies included a total of 322647 women evaluated for up to 11 years, including 4335 participants with a diagnosis of incident invasive breast cancer. DATA EXTRACTION: Pooled analysis of primary data using analyses consistent with each study's original design and the random-effects model for the overall pooled analyses. DATA SYNTHESIS: For alcohol intakes less than 60 g/d (reported by >99% of participants), risk increased linearly with increasing intake; the pooled multivariate relative risk for an increment of 10 g/d of alcohol (about 0.75-1 drink) was 1.09 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.04-1.13; P for heterogeneity among studies, .71). The multivariate-adjusted relative risk for total alcohol intakes of 30 to less than 60 g/d (about 2-5 drinks) vs nondrinkers was 1.41 (95% CI, 1.18-1.69). Limited data suggested that alcohol intakes of at least 60 g/d were not associated with further increased risk. The specific type of alcoholic beverage did not strongly influence risk estimates. The association between alcohol intake and breast cancer was not modified by other factors. CONCLUSIONS: Alcohol consumption is associated with a linear increase in breast cancer incidence in women over the range of consumption reported by most women. Among women who consume alcohol regularly, reducing alcohol consumption is a potential means to reduce breast cancer risk.

OBJECTIVE: To perform serial neuropsychological assessments to detect vascular risk factors for cognitive decline in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities cohort, a large biracial, multisite, longitudinal investigation of initially middle-aged individuals. METHODS: The authors administered cognitive assessments to 10,963 individuals (8,729 white individuals and 2,234 black individuals) on two occasions separated by 6 years. Subjects ranged in age at the first assessment from 47 to 70 years. The cognitive assessments included the delayed word recall (DWR) test, a 10-word delayed free recall task in which the learning phase included sentence generation with the study words, the digit symbol subtest (DSS) of the Wechsler Adult Intelligence Scale-Revised and the first-letter word fluency (WF) test using letters F, A, and S. RESULTS: In multivariate analyses (controlling for demographic factors), the presence of diabetes at baseline was associated with greater decline in scores on both the DSS and WF (p < 0.05), and the presence of hypertension at baseline was associated with greater decline on the DSS alone (p < 0.05). The association of diabetes with cognitive decline persisted when analysis was restricted to the 47- to 57-year-old subgroup. Smoking status, carotid intima-media wall thickness, and hyperlipidemia at baseline were not associated with change in cognitive test scores. CONCLUSIONS: Hypertension and diabetes mellitus were positively associated with cognitive decline over 6 years in this late middle-aged population. Interventions aimed at hypertension or diabetes that begin before age 60 might lessen the burden of cognitive impairment in later life.

BACKGROUND AND METHODS: To clarify the determinants of contemporary trends in mortality from coronary heart disease (CHD), we conducted surveillance of hospital admissions for myocardial infarction and of in-hospital and out-of-hospital deaths due to CHD among 35-to-74-year-old residents of four communities of varying size in the United States (a total of 352,481 persons in 1994). Between 1987 and 1994, we estimate that there were 11,869 hospitalizations for myocardial infarction (on the basis of 8572 hospitalizations sampled) and 3407 fatal coronary events (3023 sampled). RESULTS: The largest average annual decrease in mortality due to CHD occurred among white men (change in mortality, -4.7 percent; 95 percent confidence interval, -2.2 to -7.1 percent), followed by white women (-4.5 percent; 95 percent confidence interval, -0.7 to -8.2 percent), black women (-4.1 percent; 95 percent confidence interval, -10.3 to +2.5 percent), and black men (-2.5 percent; 95 percent confidence interval, -6.9 to +2.2 percent). Overall, in-hospital mortality from CHD fell by 5.1 percent per year, whereas out-of-hospital mortality declined by 3.6 percent per year. There was no evidence of a decline in the incidence of hospitalization for a first myocardial infarction among either men or women; in fact, such hospital admissions increased by 7.4 percent per year (95 percent confidence interval for the change, +0.5 to +14.8 percent) among black women and 2.9 percent per year (95 percent confidence interval, -3.6 to +9.9 percent) among black men. Rates of recurrent myocardial infarction decreased, and survival after myocardial infarction improved. CONCLUSIONS: From 1987 to 1994, we observed a stable or slightly increasing incidence of hospitalization for myocardial infarction. Nevertheless, there were significant annual decreases in mortality from CHD. The decline in mortality in the four communities we studied may be due largely to improvements in the treatment and secondary prevention of myocardial infarction.