Jeremiah Stamler

OBJECTIVE: To assess predictors of CVD mortality among men with and without diabetes and to assess the independent effect of diabetes on the risk of CVD death. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: Participants in this cohort study were screened from 1973 to 1975; vital status has been ascertained over an average of 12 yr of follow-up (range 11-13 yr). Participants were 347,978 men aged 35-57 yr, screened in 20 centers for MRFIT. The outcome measure was CVD mortality. RESULTS: Among 5163 men who reported taking medication for diabetes, 1092 deaths (603 CVD deaths) occurred in an average of 12 yr of follow-up. Among 342,815 men not taking medication for diabetes, 20,867 deaths were identified, 8965 ascribed to CVD. Absolute risk of CVD death was much higher for diabetic than nondiabetic men of every age stratum, ethnic background, and risk factor level--overall three times higher, with adjustment for age, race, income, serum cholesterol level, sBP, and reported number of cigarettes/day (P < 0.0001). For men both with and without diabetes, serum cholesterol level, sBP, and cigarette smoking were significant predictors of CVD mortality. For diabetic men with higher values for each risk factor and their combinations, absolute risk of CVD death increased more steeply than for nondiabetic men, so that absolute excess risk for diabetic men was progressively greater than for nondiabetic men with higher risk factor levels. CONCLUSIONS: These findings emphasize the importance of rigorous sustained intervention in people with diabetes to control blood pressure, lower serum cholesterol, and abolish cigarette smoking, and the importance of considering nutritional-hygienic approaches on a mass scale to prevent diabetes.

BACKGROUND: End-stage renal disease in the United States creates a large burden for both individuals and society as a whole. Efforts to prevent the condition require an understanding of modifiable risk factors. METHODS: We assessed the development of end-stage renal disease through 1990 in 332,544 men, 35 to 57 years of age, who were screened between 1973 and 1975 for entry into the Multiple Risk Factor Intervention Trial (MRFIT). We used data from the national registry for treated end-stage renal disease of the Health Care Financing Administration and from records on death from renal disease from the National Death Index and the Social Security Administration. RESULTS: During an average of 16 years of follow-up, 814 subjects either died of end-stage renal disease or were treated for that condition (15.6 cases per 100,000 person-years of observation). A strong, graded relation between both systolic and diastolic blood pressure and end-stage renal disease was identified, independent of associations between the disease and age, race, income, use of medication for diabetes mellitus, history of myocardial infarction, serum cholesterol concentration, and cigarette smoking. As compared with men with an optimal level of blood pressure (systolic pressure < 120 mm Hg and diastolic pressure < 80 mm Hg), the relative risk of end-stage renal disease for those with stage 4 hypertension (systolic pressure > or = 210 mm Hg or diastolic pressure > or = 120 mm Hg) was 22.1 (P < 0.001). These relations were not due to end-stage renal disease that occurred soon after screening and, in the 12,866 screened men who entered the MRFIT study, were not changed by taking into account the base-line serum creatinine concentration and urinary protein excretion. The estimated risk of end-stage renal disease associated with elevations of systolic pressure was greater than that linked with elevations of diastolic pressure when both variables were considered together. CONCLUSIONS: Elevations of blood pressure are a strong independent risk factor for end-stage renal disease; interventions to prevent the disease need to emphasize the prevention and control of both high-normal and high blood pressure.

The 356 222 men aged 35 to 57 years, who were free of a history of hospitalization for myocardial infarction, screened by the Multiple Risk Factor Intervention Trial (MRFIT) in its recruitment effort, constitute the largest cohort with standardized serum cholesterol measurements and long-term mortality follow-up. For each five-year age group, the relationship between serum cholesterol and coronary heart disease (CHD) death rate was continuous, gradecf, and strong. For the entire group aged 35 to 57 years at entry, the age-adjusted risks of CHD death in cholesterol quintiles 2 through 5 (182 to 202, 203 to 220, 221 to 244, and ≥245 mg/dL [4.71 to 5.22, 5.25 to 5.69, 5.72 to 6.31, and ≥6.34 mmol/L]) relative to the lowest quintile were 1.29, 1.73, 2.21, and 3.42. Of all CHD deaths, 46% were estimated to be excess deaths attributable to serum cholesterol levels 180 mg/dL or greater (≥4.65 mmol/L), with almost half the excess deaths in serum cholesterol quintiles 2 through 4. The pattern of a continuous, graded, strong relationship between serum cholesterol and six-year age-adjusted CHD death rate prevailed for nonhypertensive nonsmokers, nonhypertensive smokers, hypertensive nonsmokers, and hypertensive smokers. These data of high precision show that the relationship between serum cholesterol and CHD is not a threshold one, with increased risk confined to the two highest quintiles, but rather is a continuously graded one that powerfully affects risk for the great majority of middle-aged American men. (<i>JAMA</i>1986;256:2823-2828)