William B. Kannel

BACKGROUND: The objective of this study was to examine the association of Joint National Committee (JNC-V) blood pressure and National Cholesterol Education Program (NCEP) cholesterol categories with coronary heart disease (CHD) risk, to incorporate them into coronary prediction algorithms, and to compare the discrimination properties of this approach with other noncategorical prediction functions. METHODS AND RESULTS: This work was designed as a prospective, single-center study in the setting of a community-based cohort. The patients were 2489 men and 2856 women 30 to 74 years old at baseline with 12 years of follow-up. During the 12 years of follow-up, a total of 383 men and 227 women developed CHD, which was significantly associated with categories of blood pressure, total cholesterol, LDL cholesterol, and HDL cholesterol (all P<.001). Sex-specific prediction equations were formulated to predict CHD risk according to age, diabetes, smoking, JNC-V blood pressure categories, and NCEP total cholesterol and LDL cholesterol categories. The accuracy of this categorical approach was found to be comparable to CHD prediction when the continuous variables themselves were used. After adjustment for other factors, approximately 28% of CHD events in men and 29% in women were attributable to blood pressure levels that exceeded high normal (> or =130/85). The corresponding multivariable-adjusted attributable risk percent associated with elevated total cholesterol (> or =200 mg/dL) was 27% in men and 34% in women. CONCLUSIONS: Recommended guidelines of blood pressure, total cholesterol, and LDL cholesterol effectively predict CHD risk in a middle-aged white population sample. A simple coronary disease prediction algorithm was developed using categorical variables, which allows physicians to predict multivariate CHD risk in patients without overt CHD.

BACKGROUND: Separate multivariable risk algorithms are commonly used to assess risk of specific atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (CVD) events, ie, coronary heart disease, cerebrovascular disease, peripheral vascular disease, and heart failure. The present report presents a single multivariable risk function that predicts risk of developing all CVD and of its constituents. METHODS AND RESULTS: We used Cox proportional-hazards regression to evaluate the risk of developing a first CVD event in 8491 Framingham study participants (mean age, 49 years; 4522 women) who attended a routine examination between 30 and 74 years of age and were free of CVD. Sex-specific multivariable risk functions ("general CVD" algorithms) were derived that incorporated age, total and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, systolic blood pressure, treatment for hypertension, smoking, and diabetes status. We assessed the performance of the general CVD algorithms for predicting individual CVD events (coronary heart disease, stroke, peripheral artery disease, or heart failure). Over 12 years of follow-up, 1174 participants (456 women) developed a first CVD event. All traditional risk factors evaluated predicted CVD risk (multivariable-adjusted P<0.0001). The general CVD algorithm demonstrated good discrimination (C statistic, 0.763 [men] and 0.793 [women]) and calibration. Simple adjustments to the general CVD risk algorithms allowed estimation of the risks of each CVD component. Two simple risk scores are presented, 1 based on all traditional risk factors and the other based on non-laboratory-based predictors. CONCLUSIONS: A sex-specific multivariable risk factor algorithm can be conveniently used to assess general CVD risk and risk of individual CVD events (coronary, cerebrovascular, and peripheral arterial disease and heart failure). The estimated absolute CVD event rates can be used to quantify risk and to guide preventive care.

A pattern of left ventricular hypertrophy evident on the electrocardiogram is a harbinger of morbidity and mortality from cardiovascular disease. Echocardiography permits the noninvasive determination of left ventricular mass and the examination of its role as a precursor of morbidity and mortality. We examined the relation of left ventricular mass to the incidence of cardiovascular disease, mortality from cardiovascular disease, and mortality from all causes in 3220 subjects enrolled in the Framingham Heart Study who were 40 years of age or older and free of clinically apparent cardiovascular disease, in whom left ventricular mass was determined echocardiographically. During a four-year follow-up period, there were 208 incident cardiovascular events, 37 deaths from cardiovascular disease, and 124 deaths from all causes. Left ventricular mass, determined echocardiographically, was associated with all outcome events. This relation persisted after we adjusted for age, diastolic blood pressure, pulse pressure, treatment for hypertension, cigarette smoking, diabetes, obesity, the ratio of total cholesterol to high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, and electrocardiographic evidence of left ventricular hypertrophy. In men, the risk factor-adjusted relative risk of cardiovascular disease was 1.49 for each increment of 50 g per meter in left ventricular mass corrected for the subject's height (95 percent confidence interval, 1.20 to 1.85); in women, it was 1.57 (95 percent confidence interval, 1.20 to 2.04). Left ventricular mass (corrected for height) was also associated with the incidence of death from cardiovascular disease (relative risk, 1.73 [95 percent confidence interval, 1.19 to 2.52] in men and 2.12 [95 percent confidence interval, 1.28 to 3.49] in women). Left ventricular mass (corrected for height) was associated with death from all causes (relative risk, 1.49 [95 percent confidence interval, 1.14 to 1.94] in men and 2.01 [95 percent confidence interval, 1.44 to 2.81] in women). We conclude that the estimation of left ventricular mass by echocardiography offers prognostic information beyond that provided by the evaluation of traditional cardiovascular risk factors. An increase in left ventricular mass predicts a higher incidence of clinical events, including death, attributable to cardiovascular disease.

BACKGROUND: Atrial fibrillation (AF) causes substantial morbidity. It is uncertain whether AF is associated with excess mortality independent of associated cardiac conditions and risk factors. METHODS AND RESULTS: We examined the mortality of subjects 55 to 94 years of age who developed AF during 40 years of follow-up of the original Framingham Heart Study cohort. Of the original 5209 subjects, 296 men and 325 women (mean ages, 74 and 76 years, respectively) developed AF and met eligibility criteria. By pooled logistic regression, after adjustment for age, hypertension, smoking, diabetes, left ventricular hypertrophy, myocardial infarction, congestive heart failure, valvular heart disease, and stroke or transient ischemic attack, AF was associated with an OR for death of 1.5 (95% CI, 1.2 to 1.8) in men and 1.9 (95% CI, 1.5 to 2.2) in women. The risk of mortality conferred by AF did not significantly vary by age. However, there was a significant AF-sex interaction: AF diminished the female advantage in survival. In secondary multivariate analyses, in subjects free of valvular heart disease and preexisting cardiovascular disease, AF remained significantly associated with excess mortality, with about a doubling of mortality in both sexes. CONCLUSIONS: In subjects from the original cohort of the Framingham Heart Study, AF was associated with a 1.5- to 1.9-fold mortality risk after adjustment for the preexisting cardiovascular conditions with which AF was related. The decreased survival seen with AF was present in men and women and across a wide range of ages.