Philip A. Wolf

The impact of nonrheumatic atrial fibrillation, hypertension, coronary heart disease, and cardiac failure on stroke incidence was examined in 5,070 participants in the Framingham Study after 34 years of follow-up. Compared with subjects free of these conditions, the age-adjusted incidence of stroke was more than doubled in the presence of coronary heart disease (p less than 0.001) and more than trebled in the presence of hypertension (p less than 0.001). There was a more than fourfold excess of stroke in subjects with cardiac failure (p less than 0.001) and a near fivefold excess when atrial fibrillation was present (p less than 0.001). In persons with coronary heart disease or cardiac failure, atrial fibrillation doubled the stroke risk in men and trebled the risk in women. With increasing age the effects of hypertension, coronary heart disease, and cardiac failure on the risk of stroke became progressively weaker (p less than 0.05). Advancing age, however, did not reduce the significant impact of atrial fibrillation. For persons aged 80-89 years, atrial fibrillation was the sole cardiovascular condition to exert an independent effect on stroke incidence (p less than 0.001). The attributable risk of stroke for all cardiovascular contributors decreased with age except for atrial fibrillation, for which the attributable risk increased significantly (p less than 0.01), rising from 1.5% for those aged 50-59 years to 23.5% for those aged 80-89 years. While these findings highlight the impact of each cardiovascular condition on the risk of stroke, the data suggest that the elderly are particularly vulnerable to stroke when atrial fibrillation is present.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)

BACKGROUND: Separate multivariable risk algorithms are commonly used to assess risk of specific atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (CVD) events, ie, coronary heart disease, cerebrovascular disease, peripheral vascular disease, and heart failure. The present report presents a single multivariable risk function that predicts risk of developing all CVD and of its constituents. METHODS AND RESULTS: We used Cox proportional-hazards regression to evaluate the risk of developing a first CVD event in 8491 Framingham study participants (mean age, 49 years; 4522 women) who attended a routine examination between 30 and 74 years of age and were free of CVD. Sex-specific multivariable risk functions ("general CVD" algorithms) were derived that incorporated age, total and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, systolic blood pressure, treatment for hypertension, smoking, and diabetes status. We assessed the performance of the general CVD algorithms for predicting individual CVD events (coronary heart disease, stroke, peripheral artery disease, or heart failure). Over 12 years of follow-up, 1174 participants (456 women) developed a first CVD event. All traditional risk factors evaluated predicted CVD risk (multivariable-adjusted P<0.0001). The general CVD algorithm demonstrated good discrimination (C statistic, 0.763 [men] and 0.793 [women]) and calibration. Simple adjustments to the general CVD risk algorithms allowed estimation of the risks of each CVD component. Two simple risk scores are presented, 1 based on all traditional risk factors and the other based on non-laboratory-based predictors. CONCLUSIONS: A sex-specific multivariable risk factor algorithm can be conveniently used to assess general CVD risk and risk of individual CVD events (coronary, cerebrovascular, and peripheral arterial disease and heart failure). The estimated absolute CVD event rates can be used to quantify risk and to guide preventive care.

BACKGROUND: Atrial fibrillation (AF) causes substantial morbidity. It is uncertain whether AF is associated with excess mortality independent of associated cardiac conditions and risk factors. METHODS AND RESULTS: We examined the mortality of subjects 55 to 94 years of age who developed AF during 40 years of follow-up of the original Framingham Heart Study cohort. Of the original 5209 subjects, 296 men and 325 women (mean ages, 74 and 76 years, respectively) developed AF and met eligibility criteria. By pooled logistic regression, after adjustment for age, hypertension, smoking, diabetes, left ventricular hypertrophy, myocardial infarction, congestive heart failure, valvular heart disease, and stroke or transient ischemic attack, AF was associated with an OR for death of 1.5 (95% CI, 1.2 to 1.8) in men and 1.9 (95% CI, 1.5 to 2.2) in women. The risk of mortality conferred by AF did not significantly vary by age. However, there was a significant AF-sex interaction: AF diminished the female advantage in survival. In secondary multivariate analyses, in subjects free of valvular heart disease and preexisting cardiovascular disease, AF remained significantly associated with excess mortality, with about a doubling of mortality in both sexes. CONCLUSIONS: In subjects from the original cohort of the Framingham Heart Study, AF was associated with a 1.5- to 1.9-fold mortality risk after adjustment for the preexisting cardiovascular conditions with which AF was related. The decreased survival seen with AF was present in men and women and across a wide range of ages.

BACKGROUND: In cross-sectional studies, elevated plasma homocysteine levels have been associated with poor cognition and dementia. Studies of newly diagnosed dementia are required in order to establish whether the elevated homocysteine levels precede the onset of dementia or result from dementia-related nutritional and vitamin deficiencies. METHODS: A total of 1092 subjects without dementia (667 women and 425 men; mean age, 76 years) from the Framingham Study constituted our study sample. We examined the relation of the plasma total homocysteine level measured at base line and that measured eight years earlier to the risk of newly diagnosed dementia on follow-up. We used multivariable proportional-hazards regression to adjust for age, sex, apolipoprotein E genotype, vascular risk factors other than homocysteine, and plasma levels of folate and vitamins B12 and B6. RESULTS: Over a median follow-up period of eight years, dementia developed in 111 subjects, including 83 given a diagnosis of Alzheimer's disease. The multivariable-adjusted relative risk of dementia was 1.4 (95 percent confidence interval, 1.1 to 1.9) for each increase of 1 SD in the log-transformed homocysteine value either at base line or eight years earlier. The relative risk of Alzheimer's disease was 1.8 (95 percent confidence interval, 1.3 to 2.5) per increase of 1 SD at base line and 1.6 (95 percent confidence interval, 1.2 to 2.1) per increase of 1 SD eight years before base line. With a plasma homocysteine level greater than 14 micromol per liter, the risk of Alzheimer's disease nearly doubled. CONCLUSIONS: An increased plasma homocysteine level is a strong, independent risk factor for the development of dementia and Alzheimer's disease.