John D. Potter

BACKGROUND: Overweight and obesity are increasing worldwide. To help assess their relevance to mortality in different populations we conducted individual-participant data meta-analyses of prospective studies of body-mass index (BMI), limiting confounding and reverse causality by restricting analyses to never-smokers and excluding pre-existing disease and the first 5 years of follow-up. METHODS: Of 10 625 411 participants in Asia, Australia and New Zealand, Europe, and North America from 239 prospective studies (median follow-up 13·7 years, IQR 11·4-14·7), 3 951 455 people in 189 studies were never-smokers without chronic diseases at recruitment who survived 5 years, of whom 385 879 died. The primary analyses are of these deaths, and study, age, and sex adjusted hazard ratios (HRs), relative to BMI 22·5-<25·0 kg/m(2). FINDINGS: All-cause mortality was minimal at 20·0-25·0 kg/m(2) (HR 1·00, 95% CI 0·98-1·02 for BMI 20·0-<22·5 kg/m(2); 1·00, 0·99-1·01 for BMI 22·5-<25·0 kg/m(2)), and increased significantly both just below this range (1·13, 1·09-1·17 for BMI 18·5-<20·0 kg/m(2); 1·51, 1·43-1·59 for BMI 15·0-<18·5) and throughout the overweight range (1·07, 1·07-1·08 for BMI 25·0-<27·5 kg/m(2); 1·20, 1·18-1·22 for BMI 27·5-<30·0 kg/m(2)). The HR for obesity grade 1 (BMI 30·0-<35·0 kg/m(2)) was 1·45, 95% CI 1·41-1·48; the HR for obesity grade 2 (35·0-<40·0 kg/m(2)) was 1·94, 1·87-2·01; and the HR for obesity grade 3 (40·0-<60·0 kg/m(2)) was 2·76, 2·60-2·92. For BMI over 25·0 kg/m(2), mortality increased approximately log-linearly with BMI; the HR per 5 kg/m(2) units higher BMI was 1·39 (1·34-1·43) in Europe, 1·29 (1·26-1·32) in North America, 1·39 (1·34-1·44) in east Asia, and 1·31 (1·27-1·35) in Australia and New Zealand. This HR per 5 kg/m(2) units higher BMI (for BMI over 25 kg/m(2)) was greater in younger than older people (1·52, 95% CI 1·47-1·56, for BMI measured at 35-49 years vs 1·21, 1·17-1·25, for BMI measured at 70-89 years; pheterogeneity<0·0001), greater in men than women (1·51, 1·46-1·56, vs 1·30, 1·26-1·33; pheterogeneity<0·0001), but similar in studies with self-reported and measured BMI. INTERPRETATION: The associations of both overweight and obesity with higher all-cause mortality were broadly consistent in four continents. This finding supports strategies to combat the entire spectrum of excess adiposity in many populations. FUNDING: UK Medical Research Council, British Heart Foundation, National Institute for Health Research, US National Institutes of Health.

Common polymorphisms in DNA repair genes may alter protein function and an individual's capacity to repair damaged DNA; deficits in repair capacity may lead to genetic instability and carcinogenesis. To establish our overall understanding of possible in vivo relationships between DNA repair polymorphisms and the development of cancer, we performed a literature review of epidemiological studies that assessed associations between such polymorphisms and risk of cancer. Thirty studies of polymorphisms in OGG1, XRCC1, ERCC1, XPC, XPD, XPF, BRCA2, and XRCC3 were identified in the April 30, 2002 MEDLINE database (National Center for Biotechnology Information. PubMed Database: http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez). These studies focused on adult glioma, bladder cancer, breast cancer, esophageal cancer, lung cancer, prostate cancer, skin cancer (melanoma and nonmelanoma), squamous cell carcinoma of the head and neck, and stomach cancer. We found that a small proportion of the published studies were large and population-based. Nonetheless, published data were consistent with associations between: (a) the OGG1 S326C variant and increased risk of various types of cancer; (b) the XRCC1 R194W variant and reduced risk of various types of cancer; and (c) the BRCA2 N372H variant and increased risk of breast cancer. Suggestive results were seen for polymorphisms in other genes; however, small sample sizes may have contributed to false-positive or false-negative findings. We conclude that large, well-designed studies of common polymorphisms in DNA repair genes are needed. Such studies may benefit from analysis of multiple genes or polymorphisms and from the consideration of relevant exposures that may influence the likelihood of cancer in the presence of reduced DNA repair capacity.