Duncan J. Watts

Addressing fake news requires a multidisciplinary effort

Recent work on the structure of social networks and the internet has focused attention on graphs with distributions of vertex degree that are significantly different from the Poisson degree distributions that have been widely studied in the past. In this paper we develop in detail the theory of random graphs with arbitrary degree distributions. In addition to simple undirected, unipartite graphs, we examine the properties of directed and bipartite graphs. Among other results, we derive exact expressions for the position of the phase transition at which a giant component first forms, the mean component size, the size of the giant component if there is one, the mean number of vertices a certain distance away from a randomly chosen vertex, and the average vertex-vertex distance within a graph. We apply our theory to some real-world graphs, including the world-wide web and collaboration graphs of scientists and Fortune 1000 company directors. We demonstrate that in some cases random graphs with appropriate distributions of vertex degree predict with surprising accuracy the behavior of the real world, while in others there is a measurable discrepancy between theory and reality, perhaps indicating the presence of additional social structure in the network that is not captured by the random graph.

The origin of large but rare cascades that are triggered by small initial shocks is a phenomenon that manifests itself as diversely as cultural fads, collective action, the diffusion of norms and innovations, and cascading failures in infrastructure and organizational networks. This paper presents a possible explanation of this phenomenon in terms of a sparse, random network of interacting agents whose decisions are determined by the actions of their neighbors according to a simple threshold rule. Two regimes are identified in which the network is susceptible to very large cascades-herein called global cascades-that occur very rarely. When cascade propagation is limited by the connectivity of the network, a power law distribution of cascade sizes is observed, analogous to the cluster size distribution in standard percolation theory and avalanches in self-organized criticality. But when the network is highly connected, cascade propagation is limited instead by the local stability of the nodes themselves, and the size distribution of cascades is bimodal, implying a more extreme kind of instability that is correspondingly harder to anticipate. In the first regime, where the distribution of network neighbors is highly skewed, it is found that the most connected nodes are far more likely than average nodes to trigger cascades, but not in the second regime. Finally, it is shown that heterogeneity plays an ambiguous role in determining a system's stability: increasingly heterogeneous thresholds make the system more vulnerable to global cascades; but an increasingly heterogeneous degree distribution makes it less vulnerable.