Predicting Human Mobility via Variational Attention

Abstract

An important task in Location based Social Network applications is to predict mobility - specifically, user's next point-of-interest (POI) - challenging due to the implicit feedback of footprints, sparsity of generated check-ins, and the joint impact of historical periodicity and recent check-ins. Motivated by recent success of deep variational inference, we propose VANext (Variational Attention based Next) POI prediction: a latent variable model for inferring user's next footprint, with historical mobility attention. The variational encoding captures latent features of recent mobility, followed by searching the similar historical trajectories for periodical patterns. A trajectory convolutional network is then used to learn historical mobility, significantly improving the efficiency over often used recurrent networks. A novel variational attention mechanism is proposed to exploit the periodicity of historical mobility patterns, combined with recent check-in preference to predict next POIs. We also implement a semi-supervised variant - VANext-S, which relies on variational encoding for pre-training all current trajectories in an unsupervised manner, and uses the latent variables to initialize the current trajectory learning. Experiments conducted on real-world datasets demonstrate that VANext and VANext-S outperform the state-of-the-art human mobility prediction models.