Strategic Surprise in an Age of Information Superiority: Is It Still Possible

Abstract

Joint Vision 2020 asserts the United States military will achieve information superiority over any future adversary. This assertion is based on three assumptions: offensive information operations will provide an accurate and complete picture of an adversary, defensive information operations will prevent adversaries from attacking friendly information systems and the will of the US to overcome internal limitations to correctly interpret information will allow it to dominate the information realm against any opponent. However, evidence indicates these assumptions are flawed and the United States is vulnerable to strategic surprise. In fact, according to Eliot Cohen, one might usefully call the past dozen years the age of surprises The US government has been surprised by the end of the Warsaw Pact, the disintegration of the Soviet Union, the Iraq invasion of Kuwait and the ensuing Persian Gulf War, the Asian Financial Crisis, the Indian and Pakistani nuclear detonations, and now the events of September 11, 2001. There is no reason to think the age of surprises is over, and there are many reasons to think we are still at its beginning."'