A Potential Decline in Life Expectancy in the United States in the 21st Century

S. Jay Olshansky(University of Illinois Chicago), Douglas J. Passaro(University of Illinois Chicago), Ronald C. Hershow(University of Illinois Chicago), Jennifer E. Layden(University of Illinois Chicago), Bruce A. Carnes(University of Oklahoma Health Sciences Center), Jacob A. Brody(University of Illinois Chicago), Leonard Hayflick, Robert N. Butler(International Longevity Centre), David B. Allison(University of Alabama at Birmingham), David S. Ludwig(Harvard University Press)
New England Journal of Medicine
March 17, 2005
Cited by 2,523Open Access
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Abstract

Forecasts of life expectancy are an important component of public policy that influence age-based entitlement programs such as Social Security and Medicare. Although the Social Security Administration recently raised its estimates of how long Americans are going to live in the 21st century, current trends in obesity in the United States suggest that these estimates may not be accurate. From our analysis of the effect of obesity on longevity, we conclude that the steady rise in life expectancy during the past two centuries may soon come to an end.


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