David B. Allison

Forecasts of life expectancy are an important component of public policy that influence age-based entitlement programs such as Social Security and Medicare. Although the Social Security Administration recently raised its estimates of how long Americans are going to live in the 21st century, current trends in obesity in the United States suggest that these estimates may not be accurate. From our analysis of the effect of obesity on longevity, we conclude that the steady rise in life expectancy during the past two centuries may soon come to an end.

CONTEXT: Public health officials and organizations have disseminated health messages regarding the dangers of obesity, but these have not produced the desired effect. OBJECTIVE: To estimate the expected number of years of life lost (YLL) due to overweight and obesity across the life span of an adult. DESIGN, SETTING, AND SUBJECTS: Data from the (1) US Life Tables (1999); (2) Third National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES III; 1988-1994); and (3) First National Health and Nutrition Epidemiologic Follow-up Study (NHANES I and II; 1971-1992) and NHANES II Mortality Study (1976-1992) were used to derive YLL estimates for adults aged 18 to 85 years. Body mass index (BMI) integer-defined categories were used (ie, <17; 17 to <18; 18 to <19; 20 to <21; 21 to 45; or > or =45). A BMI of 24 was used as the reference category. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: The difference between the number of years of life expected if an individual were obese vs not obese, which was designated YLL. RESULTS: Marked race and sex differences were observed in estimated YLL. Among whites, a J- or U-shaped association was found between overweight or obesity and YLL. The optimal BMI (associated with the least YLL or greatest longevity) is approximately 23 to 25 for whites and 23 to 30 for blacks. For any given degree of overweight, younger adults generally had greater YLL than did older adults. The maximum YLL for white men aged 20 to 30 years with a severe level of obesity (BMI >45) is 13 and is 8 for white women. For men, this could represent a 22% reduction in expected remaining life span. Among black men and black women older than 60 years, overweight and moderate obesity were generally not associated with an increased YLL and only severe obesity resulted in YLL. However, blacks at younger ages with severe levels of obesity had a maximum YLL of 20 for men and 5 for women. CONCLUSION: Obesity appears to lessen life expectancy markedly, especially among younger adults.

OBJECTIVE: The purpose of this study was to estimate and compare the effects of antipsychotics-both the newer ones and the conventional ones-on body weight. METHOD: A comprehensive literature search identified 81 English- and non-English-language articles that included data on weight change in antipsychotic-treated patients. For each agent, a meta-analysis and random effects metaregression estimated the weight change after 10 weeks of treatment at a standard dose. A comprehensive narrative review was also conducted on all articles that did not yield quantitative information but did yield important qualitative information. RESULTS: Placebo was associated with a mean weight reduction of 0.74 kg. Among conventional agents, mean weight change ranged from a reduction of 0.39 kg with molindone to an increase of 3.19 kg with thioridazine. Among newer antipsychotic agents, mean increases were as follows: clozapine, 4.45 kg; olanzapine, 4.15 kg; sertindole, 2.92 kg; risperidone, 2.10 kg; and ziprasidone, 0.04 kg. Insufficient data were available to evaluate quetiapine at 10 weeks. CONCLUSIONS: Both conventional and newer antipsychotics are associated with weight gain. Among the newer agents, clozapine appears to have the greatest potential to induce weight gain, and ziprasidone the least. The differences among newer agents may affect compliance with medication and health risk.

Caloric restriction (CR), without malnutrition, delays aging and extends life span in diverse species; however, its effect on resistance to illness and mortality in primates has not been clearly established. We report findings of a 20-year longitudinal adult-onset CR study in rhesus monkeys aimed at filling this critical gap in aging research. In a population of rhesus macaques maintained at the Wisconsin National Primate Research Center, moderate CR lowered the incidence of aging-related deaths. At the time point reported, 50% of control fed animals survived as compared with 80% of the CR animals. Furthermore, CR delayed the onset of age-associated pathologies. Specifically, CR reduced the incidence of diabetes, cancer, cardiovascular disease, and brain atrophy. These data demonstrate that CR slows aging in a primate species.