Jay L. Xue

Risk for ESRD among elderly patients with acute kidney injury (AKI) has not been studied in a large, representative sample. This study aimed to determine incidence rates and hazard ratios for developing ESRD in elderly individuals, with and without chronic kidney disease (CKD), who had AKI. In the 2000 5% random sample of Medicare beneficiaries, clinical conditions were identified using Medicare claims; ESRD treatment information was obtained from ESRD registration during 2 yr of follow-up. Our cohort of 233,803 patients were hospitalized in 2000, were aged > or = 67 yr on discharge, did not have previous ESRD or AKI, and were Medicare-entitled for > or = 2 yr before discharge. In this cohort, 3.1% survived to discharge with a diagnosis of AKI, and 5.3 per 1000 developed ESRD. Among patients who received treatment for ESRD, 25.2% had a previous history of AKI. After adjustment for age, gender, race, diabetes, and hypertension, the hazard ratio for developing ESRD was 41.2 (95% confidence interval [CI] 34.6 to 49.1) for patients with AKI and CKD relative to those without kidney disease, 13.0 (95% CI 10.6 to 16.0) for patients with AKI and without previous CKD, and 8.4 (95% CI 7.4 to 9.6) for patients with CKD and without AKI. In summary, elderly individuals with AKI, particularly those with previously diagnosed CKD, are at significantly increased risk for ESRD, suggesting that episodes of AKI may accelerate progression of renal disease.

This study's objective was to determine the incidence and mortality of acute renal failure (ARF) in Medicare beneficiaries. Data were from hospitalized Medicare beneficiaries (5,403,015 discharges) between 1992 and 2001 from the 5% sample of Medicare claims. For 1992 to 2001, the overall incidence rate of ARF was 23.8 cases per 1000 discharges, with rates increasing by approximately 11% per year. Older age, male gender, and black race were strongly associated (P < 0.0001) with ARF. The overall in-hospital death rate was 4.6% in discharges without ARF, 15.2% in discharges with ARF coded as the principal diagnosis, and 32.6% in discharges with ARF as a secondary diagnosis. In-hospital death rates were 32.9% in discharges with ARF that required renal dialysis and 27.5% in those with ARF that did not require dialysis. Death within 90 d after hospital admission was 13.1% in discharges without ARF, 34.5% in discharges with ARF coded as the principal diagnosis, and 48.6% in discharges with ARF as a secondary diagnosis. Discharges with ARF were more (P < 0.0001) likely to have intensive care and other acute organ dysfunction than those without ARF. For discharges both with and without ARF, rates for death within 90 d after hospital admission showed a declining trend. In conclusion, the incidence rate of ARF in Medicare beneficiaries has been increasing. Those of older age, male gender, and black race are more likely to have ARF. These data show ARF to be a major contributor to morbidity and mortality in hospitalized patients.

The size of the prevalent ESRD population in the United States increased dramatically during the 1990s, from 196,000 in 1991 to 382,000 in 2000. Incidence also increased considerably during the same period, from 53,000 to 93,000 per year. If previous trends in ESRD incidence and prevalence continue, then current levels of health care resources that are devoted to the care of these patients will eventually be unable to meet the demand. This study discusses a Markov model developed to predict ESRD incidence, prevalence, and mortality to the year 2015 and incorporating expected changes in age/race distributions, diabetes prevalence, ESRD incidence, and probability of death. The model predicted that by 2015 there will be 136,166 incident ESRD patients per year (lower/upper limits 110,989 to 164,550), 712,290 prevalent patients (595,046 to 842,761), and 107,760 ESRD deaths annually (96,068 to 118,220). Incidence and prevalence counts are expected to increase by 44 and 85%, respectively, from 2000 to 2015 and incidence and prevalence rates per million population by 32 and 70%, respectively. The financial and human resources that will be needed to care for these patients in 2015 will be considerably greater than in 2005.

As the United States end-stage renal disease (ESRD) program enters the new millennium, the continued growth of the ESRD population poses a challenge for policy makers, health care providers, and financial planners. To assist in future planning for the ESRD program, the growth of patient numbers and Medicare costs was forecasted to the year 2010 by modeling of historical data from 1982 through 1997. A stepwise autoregressive method and exponential smoothing models were used. The forecasting models for ESRD patient numbers demonstrated mean errors of -0.03 to 1.03%, relative to the observed values. The model for Medicare payments demonstrated -0.12% mean error. The R(2) values for the forecasting models ranged from 99.09 to 99.98%. On the basis of trends in patient numbers, this forecast projects average annual growth of the ESRD populations of approximately 4.1% for new patients, 6.4% for long-term ESRD patients, 7.1% for dialysis patients, 6.1% for patients with functioning transplants, and 8.2% for patients on waiting lists for transplants, as well as 7.7% for Medicare expenditures. The numbers of patients with ESRD in 2010 are forecasted to be 129,200 +/- 7742 (95% confidence limits) new patients, 651,330 +/- 15,874 long-term ESRD patients, 520,240 +/- 25,609 dialysis patients, 178,806 +/- 4349 patients with functioning transplants, and 95,550 +/- 5478 patients on waiting lists. The forecasted Medicare expenditures are projected to increase to $28.3 +/- 1.7 billion by 2010. These projections are subject to many factors that may alter the actual growth, compared with the historical patterns. They do, however, provide a basis for discussing the future growth of the ESRD program and how the ESRD community can meet the challenges ahead.