Michael S. Kramer

CONTEXT: The World Health Organization defines preterm birth as birth at less than 37 completed gestational weeks, but most studies have focused on very preterm infants (birth at <32 weeks) because of their high risk of mortality and serious morbidity. However, infants born at 32 through 36 weeks are more common and their public health impact has not been well studied. OBJECTIVE: To assess the quantitative contribution of mild (birth at 34-36 gestational weeks) and moderate (birth at 32-33 gestational weeks) preterm birth to infant mortality. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: Population-based cohort study using linked singleton live birth-infant death cohort files for US birth cohorts for 1985 and 1995 and Canadian birth cohorts (excluding Ontario) for 1985-1987 and 1992-1994. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Relative risks (RRs) and etiologic fractions (EFs) for overall and cause-specific early neonatal (age 0-6 days), late neonatal (age 7-27 days), postneonatal (age 28-364 days), and total infant death among mild and moderate preterm births vs term births (at >/=37 gestational weeks). RESULTS: Relative risks for infant death from all causes among singletons born at 32 through 33 gestational weeks were 6.6 (95% confidence interval [CI], 6.1-7.0) in the United States in 1995 and 15.2 (95% CI, 13.2-17.5) in Canada in 1992-1994; among singletons born at 34 through 36 gestational weeks, the RRs were 2.9 (95% CI, 2.8-3.0) and 4.5 (95% CI, 4.0-5.0), respectively. Corresponding EFs were 3.2% and 4.8%, respectively, at 32 through 33 gestational weeks and 6.3% and 8.0%, respectively, at 34 through 36 gestational weeks; the sum of the EFs for births at 32 through 33 and 34 through 36 gestational weeks exceeded those for births at 28 through 31 gestational weeks. Substantial RRs were observed overall for the neonatal (eg, for early neonatal deaths, 14.6 and 33.0 for US and Canadian infants, respectively, born at 32-33 gestational weeks; EFs, 3.6% and and 6. 2% for US and Canadian infants, respectively) and postneonatal (RRs, 2.1-3.8 and 3.0-7.0 for US and Canadian infants, respectively, born at 32-36 gestational weeks; EFs, 2.7%-5.8% and 3.0%-7.0% for the same groups, respectively) periods and for death due to asphyxia, infection, sudden infant death syndrome, and external causes. Except for a reduction in the RR and EF for neonatal mortality due to infection, the patterns have changed little since 1985 in either country. CONCLUSIONS: Mild- and moderate-preterm birth infants are at high RR for death during infancy and are responsible for an important fraction of infant deaths. JAMA. 2000;284:843-849

Despite recognition that estimation of gestational age (GA) based on maternal recollection of the last normal menstrual period (LNMP) is fraught with error, it is not generally appreciated that the magnitude and direction of this error vary as a function of the LNMP estimate. Early second-trimester (16 to 18 weeks) ultrasound determinations of the fetal biparietal diameter were used as the "gold standard" to test the validity of LNMP-based GA estimates in 11,045 women. The large majority of deliveries occurring at or near term showed LNMP estimates that were valid within plus or minus seven days of the ultrasound estimate. As the LNMP GA deviated progressively toward earlier or later GAs, however, the discrepancies became quite marked, especially for postterm dates. The positive predictive values of the LNMP GA estimates decreased dramatically from term (.949) to preterm (.775) to postterm (.119) deliveries. These systematic errors in menstrual GA estimates have profound implications for unnecessary induction, dysfunctional labor and cesarean section, and resultant neonatal and maternal morbidity.

BACKGROUND: The rates of preterm birth have increased in many countries, including Canada, over the past 20 years. However, the factors underlying the increase are poorly understood. METHODS: We used data from the Statistics Canada live-birth and stillbirth data bases to determine the effects of changes in the frequency of multiple births, registration of births occurring very early in gestation, patterns of obstetrical intervention, and use of ultrasonographic dating of gestational age on the rates of preterm birth in Canada from 1981 through 1983 and from 1992 through 1994. All births in 9 of the 12 provinces and territories of Canada were included. Logistic-regression analysis and Poisson regression analysis were used to estimate changes between the two three-year periods, after adjustment for the above-mentioned determinants of the likelihood of preterm births. RESULTS: Preterm births increased from 6.3 percent of live births in 1981 through 1983 to 6.8 percent in 1992 through 1994, a relative increase of 9 percent (95 percent confidence interval, 7 to 10 percent). Among singleton births, preterm births increased by 5 percent (95 percent confidence interval, 3 to 6 percent). Multiple births increased from 1.9 percent to 2.1 percent of all live births; the rates of preterm birth among live births resulting from multiple gestations increased by 25 percent (95 percent confidence interval, 21 to 28 percent). Adjustment for the determinants of the likelihood of preterm birth reduced the increase in the rate of preterm birth to 3 percent among all live births and 1 percent among singleton births. CONCLUSIONS: The recent increase in preterm births in Canada is largely attributable to changes in the frequency of multiple births, obstetrical intervention, and the use of ultrasound-based estimates of gestational age.

CONTEXT: Canada and the United States have reported a recent increase in the incidence of preterm birth, but the reasons for this increase are unknown. OBJECTIVE: To assess secular trends in preterm birth and its potential determinants. DESIGN: Hospital-based cohort study. SETTING: Canadian tertiary care university teaching hospital, 1978-1996. PARTICIPANTS: A total of 65574 nonreferred live births and stillbirths. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Changes in occurrence of preterm birth, before and after adjustment for changes in method of gestational age assessment, obstetric intervention, registration of births weighing less than 500 g, and sociodemographic, behavioral, and clinical determinants. RESULTS: A crude secular increase in preterm births was seen for births less than 37, 34, and 32 completed weeks using 3 alternative gestational age estimation methods. Based on an algorithm incorporating both menstrual and early ultrasound gestational age estimates, rates increased from 6.6% to 9.8% for births at less than 37 weeks' gestation, 1.7% to 2.3% at less than 34 weeks, and 1.0% to 1.2% at less than 32 weeks. Exclusion of births weighing less than 500 g and those with induction or preterm cesarean delivery without labor before each of the corresponding gestational age cutoffs eliminated the secular trends for births before 34 and 32 weeks and attenuated the trend for births before 37 weeks. Nearly half of the remaining trend for births before 37 weeks was accounted for by the increasing use of early ultrasound dating. The residual trend was eliminated after controlling for secular increases in unmarried status and the proportion of women aged 35 years or older. These factors, combined with a decrease in alcohol consumption and increases in histological chorioamnionitis and cocaine use, appear to have counteracted a reduction in preterm birth since the mid-1980s that otherwise would have been observed. CONCLUSIONS: This hospital's increase in preterm births since 1978 parallels increases reported in population-based national studies from the United States and Canada. This trend appears largely attributable to the increasing use of early ultrasound dating, preterm induction and preterm cesarean delivery without labor, and changes in sociodemographic and behavioral factors.

Previous studies of fetal growth and body proportionality have been based on error-prone gestational age estimates and on inappropriate comparisons of infants with dissimilar birth weights. Based on a cohort of 8719 infants with validated (by early ultrasonography) gestational ages and indexes of body proportionality standardized for birth weight, potential maternal and fetal determinants of fetal growth and proportionality were assessed. Maternal history of previous low birth weight infants, pregnancy-related hypertension (particularly if severe), diabetes, prepregnancy weight, net gestational weight gain, cigarette smoking, height, parity, and fetal sex were all significantly associated with fetal growth in the expected directions. Consistent with previous reports, maternal age, marital status, and onset or total amount of prenatal care had no significant independent effects. Fetal growth ratio (relative weight for gestational age), pregnancy-related hypertension, fetal sex, and maternal height were the only significant determinants of proportionality. Infants who were growth-retarded, those with taller mothers, those whose mothers had severe pregnancy-related hypertension, and males tended to be longer and thinner and had larger heads for their weight, although these variables explained only a small fraction of the variance in the proportionality measures. Among infants with intrauterine growth retardation, gestational age was not independently associated with proportionality (in particular, late term and post-term infants did not tend to be more disproportional), a finding that does not support the hypothesis that earlier onset of growth retardation leads to more proportional growth retardation. The results raise serious questions about previous studies of proportionality, particularly those suggesting a nutritional etiology for proportional intrauterine growth retardation.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)