Melvin L. Moeschberger

Survival analysis:techniques for censored and truncated data , Survival analysis:techniques for censored and truncated data , کتابخانه مرکزی دانشگاه علوم پزشکی ایران

PURPOSE: To identify whether parental history of myopia and/or parent-reported children's visual activity levels can predict juvenile-onset myopia. METHODS: Survey-based data from Orinda Longitudinal Study of Myopia subjects from 1989 to 2001 were used to predict future myopia. Univariate and multiple logistic regression analyses were performed, and receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curves were generated. Differences among the areas under the ROC curves were compared using the method of multiple comparison with the best. RESULTS: Of the 514 children eligible for this analysis, 111 (21.6%) became myopic. Differences in the third grade between eventual myopes and nonmyopes were seen for the number of myopic parents (P < 0.001) and for the number of sports and outdoor activity hours per week (11.65 +/- 6.97 hours for nonmyopes vs. 7.98 +/- 6.54 hours for future myopes, P < 0.001). Analysis of the areas under the ROC curves showed three variables with a predictive value better than chance: the number of myopic parents, the number of sports and outdoor activity hours per week, and the number of reading hours per week. After controlling for sports and outdoor hours per week and parental myopia history, reading hours per week was no longer a statistically significant factor. The area under the curve for the parental myopia history and sports and outdoor activities model was 0.73. A significant interaction in the logistic model showed a differential effect of sport and outdoor activity hours per week based on a child's number of myopic parents. CONCLUSIONS: Parental history of myopia was an important predictor in univariate and multivariate models, with a differential effect of sports and outdoor activity hours per week based on the number of myopic parents. Lower amounts of sports and outdoor activity increased the odds of becoming myopic in those children with two myopic parents more than in those children with either zero or one myopic parent. The chance of becoming myopic for children with no myopic parents appears lowest in the children with the highest amount of sports and outdoor activity, compared with those with two myopic parents.

PURPOSE: To quantify the degree of association between juvenile myopia and parental myopia, near work, and school achievement. METHODS: Refractive error, parental refractive status, current level of near activities (assumed working distance-weighted hours per week spent studying, reading for pleasure, watching television, playing video games or working on the computer), hours per week spent playing sports, and level of school achievement (scores on the Iowa Tests of Basic Skills [ITBS]) were assessed in 366 eighth grade children who participated in the Orinda Longitudinal Study of Myopia in 1991 to 1996. RESULTS: Children with myopia were more likely to have parents with myopia; to spend significantly more time studying, more time reading, and less time playing sports; and to score higher on the ITBS Reading and Total Language subtests than emmetropic children (chi(2) and Wilcoxon rank-sum tests; P < 0.024). Multivariate logistic regression models showed no substantial confounding effects between parental myopia, near work, sports activity, and school achievement, suggesting that each factor has an independent association with myopia. The multivariate odds ratio (95% confidence interval) for two compared with no parents with myopia was 6.40 (2.17-18.87) and was 1.020 (1.008-1.032) for each diopter-hour per week of near work. Interactions between parental myopia and near work were not significant (P = 0.67), indicating no increase in the risk associated with near work with an increasing number of parents with myopia. CONCLUSIONS: Heredity was the most important factor associated with juvenile myopia, with smaller independent contributions from more near work, higher school achievement, and less time in sports activity. There was no evidence that children inherit a myopigenic environment or a susceptibility to the effects of near work from their parents.

Although substantial epidemiologic evidence links Streptococcus mutans to caries, the pathobiology of caries may involve more complex communities of bacterial species. Molecular methods for bacterial identification and enumeration now make it possible to more precisely study the microbiota associated with dental caries. The purpose of this study was to compare the bacteria found in early childhood caries (ECC) to those found in caries-free children by using molecular identification methods. Cloning and sequencing of bacterial 16S ribosomal DNAs from a healthy subject and a subject with ECC were used for identification of novel species or uncultivated phylotypes and species not previously associated with dental caries. Ten novel phylotypes were identified. A number of species or phylotypes that may play a role in health or disease were identified and warrant further investigation. In addition, quantitative measurements for 23 previously known bacterial species or species groups were obtained by a reverse capture checkerboard assay for 30 subjects with caries and 30 healthy controls. Significant differences were observed for nine species: S. sanguinis was associated with health and, in order of decreasing cell numbers, Actinomyces gerencseriae, Bifidobacterium, S. mutans, Veillonella, S. salivarius, S. constellatus, S. parasanguinis, and Lactobacillus fermentum were associated with caries. These data suggest that A. gerencseriae and other Actinomyces species may play an important role in caries initiation and that a novel Bifidobacterium may be a major pathogen in deep caries. Further investigation could lead to the identification of targets for biological interventions in the caries process and thereby contribute to improved prevention of and treatment for this significant public health problem.