Peter D. Ghys

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the global and regional distribution of HIV-1 subtypes and recombinants between 2000 and 2007. DESIGN: Country-specific HIV-1 molecular epidemiology data were combined with estimates of the number of HIV-infected people in each country. METHODS: Cross-sectional HIV-1 subtyping data were collected from 65 913 samples in 109 countries between 2000 and 2007. The distribution of HIV-1 subtypes in individual countries was weighted according to the number of HIV-infected people in each country to generate estimates of regional and global HIV-1 subtype distribution for the periods 2000-2003 and 2004-2007. RESULTS: Analysis of the global distribution of HIV-1 subtypes and recombinants in the two periods indicated a broadly stable distribution of HIV-1 subtypes worldwide with a notable increase in the proportion of circulating recombinant forms (CRFs), a decrease in unique recombinant forms (URFs) and an overall increase in recombinants. In 2004-2007, subtype C accounted for nearly half (48%) of all global infections, followed by subtypes A (12%) and B (11%), CRF02_AG (8%), CRF01_AE (5%), subtype G (5%) and D (2%). Subtypes F, H, J and K together cause fewer than 1% of infections worldwide. Other CRFs and URFs are each responsible for 4% of global infections, bringing the combined total of worldwide CRFs to 16% and all recombinants (CRFs along with URFs) to 20%. CONCLUSION: The global and regional distributions of individual subtypes and recombinants are broadly stable, although CRFs may play an increasing role in the HIV pandemic. The global diversity of HIV-1 poses a formidable challenge to HIV vaccine development.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the global and regional distribution of HIV-1 subtypes and recombinants in 2004. DESIGN: A study was conducted in which molecular epidemiological data on HIV-1 subtype distribution in individual countries were combined with country-specific estimates of the number of people living with HIV. METHODS: HIV-1 subtype data were collected for 23 874 HIV-1 samples from 70 countries, which together accounted for 89% of all people living with HIV worldwide in 2004. The proportions of HIV-1 infections due to various subtypes detected in each country were combined with the number of HIV infected people in the respective countries to generate regional and global HIV-1 subtype distribution estimates. RESULTS: Subtype C accounted for 50% of all infections worldwide in 2004. Subtypes A, B, D and G accounted for 12%, 10%, 3% and 6%, respectively. The subtypes F, H, J and K together accounted for 0.94% of infections. The circulating recombinant forms CRF01_AE and CRF02_AG each were responsible for 5% of cases, and CRF03_AB for 0.1%. Other recombinants accounted for the remaining 8% of infections. All recombinant forms taken together were responsible for 18% of infections worldwide. CONCLUSION: Combining data on HIV-1 subtype distribution in individual countries with country-specific estimates of the number of people living with HIV provided a good method to generate estimates of the global and regional HIV-1 genetic diversity in 2004. The results could serve as an important resource for HIV scientists, public health officials and HIV vaccine developers.