Guido Lammering

PURPOSE: Neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy for rectal cancer can result in complete disappearance of tumor and involved nodes. In patients without residual tumor on imaging and endoscopy (clinical complete response [cCR]) a wait-and-see-policy (omission of surgery with follow-up) might be considered instead of surgery. The purpose of this prospective cohort study was to evaluate feasibility and safety of a wait-and-see policy with strict selection criteria and follow-up. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Patients with a cCR after chemoradiotherapy were prospectively selected for the wait-and-see policy with magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) and endoscopy plus biopsies. Follow-up was performed 3 to 6 monthly and consisted of MRI, endoscopy, and computed tomography scans. A control group of patients with a pathologic complete response (pCR) after surgery was identified from a prospective cohort study. Functional outcome was measured with the Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center (MSKCC) bowel function questionnaire and Wexner incontinence score. Long-term outcome was estimated by using Kaplan-Meier curves. RESULTS: Twenty-one patients with cCR were included in the wait-and-see policy group. Mean follow-up was 25 ± 19 months. One patient developed a local recurrence and had surgery as salvage treatment. The other 20 patients are alive without disease. The control group consisted of 20 patients with a pCR after surgery who had a mean follow-up of 35 ± 23 months. For these patients with a pCR, cumulative probabilities of 2-year disease-free survival and overall survival were 93% and 91%, respectively. CONCLUSION: A wait-and-see policy with strict selection criteria, up-to-date imaging techniques, and follow-up is feasible and results in promising outcome at least as good as that of patients with a pCR after surgery. The proposed selection criteria and follow-up could form the basis for future randomized studies.

PURPOSE: The purpose of this study was to develop accurate models and nomograms to predict local recurrence, distant metastases, and survival for patients with locally advanced rectal cancer treated with long-course chemoradiotherapy (CRT) followed by surgery and to allow for a selection of patients who may benefit most from postoperative adjuvant chemotherapy and close follow-up. PATIENTS AND METHODS: All data (N = 2,795) from five major European clinical trials for rectal cancer were pooled and used to perform an extensive survival analysis and to develop multivariate nomograms based on Cox regression. Data from one trial was used as an external validation set. The variables used in the analysis were sex, age, clinical tumor stage stage, tumor location, radiotherapy dose, concurrent and adjuvant chemotherapy, surgery procedure, and pTNM stage. Model performance was evaluated by the concordance index (c-index). Risk group stratification was proposed for the nomograms. RESULTS: The nomograms are able to predict events with a c-index for external validation of local recurrence (LR; 0.68), distant metastases (DM; 0.73), and overall survival (OS; 0.70). Pathologic staging is essential for accurate prediction of long-term outcome. Both preoperative CRT and adjuvant chemotherapy have an added value when predicting LR, DM, and OS rates. The stratification in risk groups allows significant distinction between Kaplan-Meier curves for outcome. CONCLUSION: The easy-to-use nomograms can predict LR, DM, and OS over a 5-year period after surgery. They may be used as decision support tools in future trials by using the three defined risk groups to select patients for postoperative chemotherapy and close follow-up (http://www.predictcancer.org).

PURPOSE: To identify time factors for combined chemotherapy and radiotherapy predictive for long-term survival of patients with limited-disease small-cell lung cancer (LD-SCLC). METHODS: A systematic overview identified suitable phase III trials. Using meta-analysis methodology to compare results within trials, the influence of the timing of chest radiation and the start of any treatment until the end of radiotherapy (SER) on local tumor control, survival, and esophagitis was analyzed. For comparison between studies, the equivalent radiation dose in 2-Gy fractions, corrected for the overall treatment time of chest radiotherapy, was analyzed. RESULTS: The SER was the most important predictor of outcome. There was a significantly higher 5-year survival rate in the shorter SER arms (relative risk [RR] = 0.62; 95% CI, 0.49 to 0.80; P = .0003), which was more than 20% when the SER was less than 30 days (upper bound of 95% CI, 90 days). A low SER was associated with a higher incidence of severe esophagitis (RR = 0.55; 95% CI, 0.42 to 073; P < .0001). Each week of extension of the SER beyond that of the study arm with the shortest SER resulted in an overall absolute decrease in the 5-year survival rate of 1.83% +/- 0.18% (95% CI). CONCLUSION: A low time between the first day of chemotherapy and the last day of chest radiotherapy is associated with improved survival in LD-SCLC patients. The novel parameter SER, which takes into account accelerated proliferation of tumor clonogens during both radiotherapy and chemotherapy, may facilitate a more rational design of combined-modality treatment in rapidly proliferating tumors.

PURPOSE: To determine diagnostic performance of diffusion-weighted (DW) magnetic resonance (MR) imaging for assessment of complete tumor response (CR) after combined radiation therapy with chemotherapy (CRT) in patients with locally advanced rectal cancer (LARC) by means of volumetric signal intensity measurements and apparent diffusion coefficient (ADC) measurements and to compare the performance of DW imaging with that of T2-weighted MR volumetry. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A retrospective analysis of 50 patients with LARC, for whom clinical and imaging data were retrieved from a previous imaging study approved by the local institutional ethical committee and for which all patients provided informed consent, was conducted. Patients underwent pre- and post-CRT standard T2-weighted MR and DW MR. Two independent readers placed free-hand regions of interest (ROIs) in each tumor-containing section on both data sets to determine pre- and post-CRT tumor volumes and tumor volume reduction rates (volume). ROIs were copied to an ADC map to calculate tumor ADCs. Histopathologic findings were the standard of reference. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were generated to compare performance of T2-weighted and DW MR volumetry and ADC. The intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC) was used to evaluate interobserver variability and the correlation between T2-weighted and DW MR volumetry. RESULTS: Areas under the ROC curve (AUCs) for identification of a CR that was based on pre-CRT volume, post-CRT volume, and volume, respectively, were 0.57, 0.70, and 0.84 for T2-weighted MR versus 0.63, 0.93, and 0.92 for DW MR volumetry (P = .15, .02, .42). Pre- and post-CRT ADC and ADC AUCs were 0.55, 0.54, and 0.51, respectively. Interobserver agreement was excellent for all pre-CRT measurements (ICC, 0.91-0.96) versus good (ICC, 0.61-0.79) for post-CRT measurements. ICC between T2-weighted and DW MR volumetry was excellent (0.97) for pre-CRT measurements versus fair (0.25) for post-CRT measurements. CONCLUSION: Post-CRT DW MR volumetry provided high diagnostic performance in assessing CR and was significantly more accurate than T2-weighted MR volumetry. Post-CRT DW MR was equally as accurate as volume measurements of both T2-weighted and DW MR. Pre-CRT volumetry and ADC were not reliable.