Josep M. Antó

BACKGROUND: The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016) provides a comprehensive assessment of risk factor exposure and attributable burden of disease. By providing estimates over a long time series, this study can monitor risk exposure trends critical to health surveillance and inform policy debates on the importance of addressing risks in context. METHODS: We used the comparative risk assessment framework developed for previous iterations of GBD to estimate levels and trends in exposure, attributable deaths, and attributable disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), by age group, sex, year, and location for 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks from 1990 to 2016. This study included 481 risk-outcome pairs that met the GBD study criteria for convincing or probable evidence of causation. We extracted relative risk (RR) and exposure estimates from 22 717 randomised controlled trials, cohorts, pooled cohorts, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources, according to the GBD 2016 source counting methods. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL), we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. Finally, we explored four drivers of trends in attributable burden: population growth, population ageing, trends in risk exposure, and all other factors combined. FINDINGS: Since 1990, exposure increased significantly for 30 risks, did not change significantly for four risks, and decreased significantly for 31 risks. Among risks that are leading causes of burden of disease, child growth failure and household air pollution showed the most significant declines, while metabolic risks, such as body-mass index and high fasting plasma glucose, showed significant increases. In 2016, at Level 3 of the hierarchy, the three leading risk factors in terms of attributable DALYs at the global level for men were smoking (124·1 million DALYs [95% UI 111·2 million to 137·0 million]), high systolic blood pressure (122·2 million DALYs [110·3 million to 133·3 million], and low birthweight and short gestation (83·0 million DALYs [78·3 million to 87·7 million]), and for women, were high systolic blood pressure (89·9 million DALYs [80·9 million to 98·2 million]), high body-mass index (64·8 million DALYs [44·4 million to 87·6 million]), and high fasting plasma glucose (63·8 million DALYs [53·2 million to 76·3 million]). In 2016 in 113 countries, the leading risk factor in terms of attributable DALYs was a metabolic risk factor. Smoking remained among the leading five risk factors for DALYs for 109 countries, while low birthweight and short gestation was the leading risk factor for DALYs in 38 countries, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia. In terms of important drivers of change in trends of burden attributable to risk factors, between 2006 and 2016 exposure to risks explains an 9·3% (6·9-11·6) decline in deaths and a 10·8% (8·3-13·1) decrease in DALYs at the global level, while population ageing accounts for 14·9% (12·7-17·5) of deaths and 6·2% (3·9-8·7) of DALYs, and population growth for 12·4% (10·1-14·9) of deaths and 12·4% (10·1-14·9) of DALYs. The largest contribution of trends in risk exposure to disease burden is seen between ages 1 year and 4 years, where a decline of 27·3% (24·9-29·7) of the change in DALYs between 2006 and 2016 can be attributed to declines in exposure to risks. INTERPRETATION: Increasingly detailed understanding of the trends in risk exposure and the RRs for each risk-outcome pair provide insights into both the magnitude of health loss attributable to risks and how modification of risk exposure has contributed to health trends. Metabolic risks warrant particular policy attention, due to their large contribution to global disease burden, increasing trends, and variable patterns across countries at the same level of development. GBD 2016 findings show that, while it has huge potential to improve health, risk modification has played a relatively small part in the past decade. FUNDING: The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Bloomberg Philanthropies.

The European Community Respiratory Health Survey (ECRHS) was the first study to assess the geographical variation in asthma and allergy in adults using the same instruments and definitions. The database of the ECRHS includes information from approximately 140,000 individuals from 22 countries. The aim of this review is to summarize the results of the ECRHS to date. The ECRHS has shown that there are large geographical differences in the prevalence of asthma, atopy and bronchial responsiveness, with high prevalence rates in English speaking countries and low prevalence rates in the Mediterranean region and Eastern Europe. Analyses of risk factors have highlighted the importance of occupational exposure for asthma in adulthood. The association between sensitization to individual allergens and bronchial responsiveness was strongest for indoor allergens (mite and cat). Analysis of treatment practices has confirmed that the treatment of asthma varies widely between countries and that asthma is often undertreated. In conclusion, the European Community Respiratory Health Survey has shown that the prevalence of asthma varies widely. The fact that the geographical pattern is consistent with the distribution of atopy and bronchial responsiveness supports the conclusion that the geographical variations in the prevalence of asthma are true and most likely due to environmental factors.

It was hypothesised that wood smoke exposure could be a risk factor for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) in Spain. The present study was designed as a case-control study of 120 females requiring hospitalisation during 2001-2003 at Hospital del Mar (Barcelona, Spain). Cases were recruited from hospital records as females who had been admitted for an exacerbation of COPD. Controls were obtained from pulmonary function test laboratory consultations prior to a surgical intervention. All patients answered a standardised questionnaire. Exposure to wood or charcoal smoke was strongly associated with COPD after adjusting for age and smoking. The association between length of exposure and COPD suggested a dose-response pattern. Intensity of exposure in both summer and winter was also related to COPD. Wood or charcoal alone independently increased risk of COPD (odds ratio (OR) 1.8 and 1.5, respectively), but only the combination of both was statistically significant (OR 4.5). In conclusion, the present study shows a strong association between wood or charcoal smoke exposure and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, supporting its existence not only in developing countries, but also in European countries, such as Spain. Further studies assessing whether this association also exists in other European societies are warranted.

BACKGROUND: Although women with severe non-allergic asthma may represent a substantial proportion of adults with asthma in clinical practice, gender differences in the incidence of allergic and non-allergic asthma have been little investigated in the general population. METHODS: Gender differences in asthma prevalence, reported diagnosis and incidence were investigated in 9091 men and women randomly selected from the general population and followed up after 8-10 years as part of the European Community Respiratory Health Survey. The protocol included assessment of bronchial responsiveness, IgE specific to four common allergens and skin tests to nine allergens. RESULTS: Asthma was 20% more frequent in women than in men over the age of 35 years. Possible under-diagnosis of asthma appeared to be particularly frequent among non-atopic individuals, but was as frequent in women as in men. The follow-up of subjects without asthma at baseline showed a higher incidence of asthma in women than in men (HR 1.94; 95% CI 1.40 to 2.68), which was not explained by differences in smoking, obesity or lung function. More than 60% of women and 30% of men with new-onset asthma were non-atopic. The incidence of non-allergic asthma was higher in women than in men throughout all the reproductive years (HR 3.51; 95% CI 2.21 to 5.58), whereas no gender difference was observed for the incidence of allergic asthma. CONCLUSIONS: This study shows that female sex is an independent risk factor for non-allergic asthma, and stresses the need for more careful assessment of possible non-allergic asthma in clinical practice, in men and women.