James Whitworth

OBJECTIVE: To assess trends in HIV-1 infection rates and changes in sexual behaviour over 7 years in rural Uganda. METHODS: An adult cohort followed through eight medical-serological annual surveys since 1989-1990. All consenting participants gave a blood sample and were interviewed on sexual behaviour. RESULTS: On average, 65% of residents gave a blood sample at each round. Overall HIV-1 prevalence declined from 8.2% at round 1 to 6.9% at round 8 (P = 0.008). Decline was most evident among men aged 20-24 years (11.7 to 3.6%; P < 0.001) and women aged 13-19 (4.4% to 1.4%; P = 0.003) and 20-24 (20.9% to 13.8%; P = 0.003). However, prevalence increased significantly among women aged 25-34 (13.1% to 16.6%; P = 0.04). Although overall incidence declined from 7.7/1000 person-years (PY) in 1990 to 4.6/1000 PY in 1996, neither this nor the age-sex specific rates changed significantly (P > 0.2). Age-standardized death rates for HIV-negative individuals were 6.5/1000 PY in 1990 and 8.2/1000 PY in 1996; corresponding rates for HIV-positive individuals were 129.7 and 102.7/1000 PY, respectively. There were no significant trends in age-adjusted death rates during follow-up for either group. There was evidence of behaviour change towards increase in condom use in males and females, marriage at later age for girls, later sexual debut for boys and a fall in fertility especially among unmarried teenagers. CONCLUSIONS: This is the first general population cohort study showing overall long-term significant reduction in HIV prevalence and parallel evidence of sexual behaviour change. There are however no significant reductions in either HIV incidence or mortality.

OBJECTIVE: To determine the prevalence of mucocutaneous conditions and their association with HIV-1 infection in a rural community in Uganda. METHODS: In a prospective cohort study, participants were recruited from a large population study and invited to attend a clinic every 3 months for a detailed medical interview and a thorough physical examination. All findings including mucocutaneous findings were coded onto a standard questionnaire. RESULTS: By the end of 1996, 436 participants had provided 1450 person years of observation (pyo); 646 pyo in HIV-positives and 804 pyo in HIV-negatives. Overall, 70% of participants had a skin condition during follow-up, and although skin conditions were significantly more common in HIV-positive subjects, the background level in HIV-negative subjects was high (77.3% and 63.6%, respectively). Herpes zoster, thin/sparse hair, maculo-papular rash and prurigo were significantly more common in the HIV-positives. Kaposi sarcoma, palmar/plantar rash and herpes zoster had positive predictive values for HIV infection of over 80%. Oral conditions were found in over 40% of participants and were significantly more common in HIV-positive subjects. Oral candidiasis and Kaposi sarcoma were significantly more frequent among HIV-positives. CONCLUSION: HIV infection increases the already high burden of mucocutaneous diseases in this rural population. We identified some conditions that are more common in HIV and others that can be used as indicators of HIV infection.

Objectives: To describe the early manifestations of HIV-1 infection before the development of AIDS, in a rural Ugandan population. Methods: Three monthly follow-up of HIV-1-infected and uninfected participants in an HIV-1 natural history cohort from the start of the cohort in 1990 to the end of 1996. Results: A total of 107 persons with prevalent infection and 104 persons with incident infection were enrolled. Eighty (75%) prevalent and 89 (86%) incident individuals were asymptomatic on enrolment. Of the 91 persons with incident infection seen within 2 years of their estimated date of seroconversion, 51% [95% confidence interval (CI), 40–61] were still asymptomatic 2 years after seroconversion. At 4 and 5 years after seroconversion, only 26% (95% CI, 17–36) and 11% (95% CI, 4–22), respectively, remained asymptomatic. A total of 89 participants entered World Health Organization (WHO) stage 2, and their main stage-defining conditions were weight loss <10% (and > 5%) and minor mucocutaneous manifestations. The median CD4 lymphocyte count for participants entering WHO stage 2 was 516 × 106 cells/l (interquartile range, 360–884 × 106/l). A total of 94 participants entered WHO stage 3 and the main reasons were weight loss >10%, unexplained chronic diarrhoea, fever for more than 1 month, and severe bacterial infection. The median CD4 lymphocyte count for participants entering WHO stage 3 was 428 × 106 cells/l (interquartile range, 276–736 × 106/l). The rates of all conditions reported under the WHO staging system were significantly more frequent in HIV-positive persons than HIV-negative controls with the exception of fever for more than 1 month and oral hairy leukoplakia (which was seen in only three individuals). Conclusion: These are the first data from a non-selected African population describing the early manifestations of HIV infection. The main early manifestations were weight loss, minor mucocutaneous features, chronic diarrhoea, chronic fever and severe bacterial infections. The apparent rapid development of HIV-related signs and symptoms is probably indicative of the high background level of these conditions in our study area, as reflected by the rates of these conditions in the HIV-negative controls.