E. Francis Cook

BACKGROUND: Cardiac complications are important causes of morbidity after noncardiac surgery. The purpose of this prospective cohort study was to develop and validate an index for risk of cardiac complications. METHODS AND RESULTS: We studied 4315 patients aged > or = 50 years undergoing elective major noncardiac procedures in a tertiary-care teaching hospital. The main outcome measures were major cardiac complications. Major cardiac complications occurred in 56 (2%) of 2893 patients assigned to the derivation cohort. Six independent predictors of complications were identified and included in a Revised Cardiac Risk Index: high-risk type of surgery, history of ischemic heart disease, history of congestive heart failure, history of cerebrovascular disease, preoperative treatment with insulin, and preoperative serum creatinine >2.0 mg/dL. Rates of major cardiac complication with 0, 1, 2, or > or = 3 of these factors were 0.5%, 1.3%, 4%, and 9%, respectively, in the derivation cohort and 0.4%, 0.9%, 7%, and 11%, respectively, among 1422 patients in the validation cohort. Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis in the validation cohort indicated that the diagnostic performance of the Revised Cardiac Risk Index was superior to other published risk-prediction indexes. CONCLUSIONS: In stable patients undergoing nonurgent major noncardiac surgery, this index can identify patients at higher risk for complications. This index may be useful for identification of candidates for further risk stratification with noninvasive technologies or other management strategies, as well as low-risk patients in whom additional evaluation is unlikely to be helpful.

BACKGROUND: Hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HCM) is the most common cause of sudden death in the young, although not all patients eligible for sudden death prevention with an implantable cardioverter-defibrillator are identified. Contrast-enhanced cardiovascular magnetic resonance with late gadolinium enhancement (LGE) has emerged as an in vivo marker of myocardial fibrosis, although its role in stratifying sudden death risk in subgroups of HCM patients remains incompletely understood. METHODS AND RESULTS: We assessed the relation between LGE and cardiovascular outcomes in 1293 HCM patients referred for cardiovascular magnetic resonance and followed up for a median of 3.3 years. Sudden cardiac death (SCD) events (including appropriate defibrillator interventions) occurred in 37 patients (3%). A continuous relationship was evident between LGE by percent left ventricular mass and SCD event risk in HCM patients (P=0.001). Extent of LGE was associated with an increased risk of SCD events (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.46/10% increase in LGE; P=0.002), even after adjustment for other relevant disease variables. LGE of ≥15% of LV mass demonstrated a 2-fold increase in SCD event risk in those patients otherwise considered to be at lower risk, with an estimated likelihood for SCD events of 6% at 5 years. Performance of the SCD event risk model was enhanced by LGE (net reclassification index, 12.9%; 95% confidence interval, 0.3-38.3). Absence of LGE was associated with lower risk for SCD events (adjusted hazard ratio, 0.39; P=0.02). Extent of LGE also predicted the development of end-stage HCM with systolic dysfunction (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.80/10% increase in LGE; P<0.03). CONCLUSIONS: Extensive LGE measured by quantitative contrast enhanced CMR provides additional information for assessing SCD event risk among HCM patients, particularly patients otherwise judged to be at low risk.

Little is known about prognostic factors that determine outcomes after in-hospital cardiopulmonary resuscitation. We studied prospectively 294 consecutive patients who were resuscitated in a university teaching hospital. Forty-one patients (14 per cent) were discharged from the hospital; three quarters of them were still alive six months later. A multivariate analysis revealed that pneumonia, hypotension, renal failure, cancer, and a homebound life style before hospitalization were significantly associated with in-hospital mortality (P less than 0.05). None of the 58 patients with pneumonia and none of the 179 in whom resuscitation took longer than 30 minutes survived to be discharged. On the other hand, fully 42 per cent of the patients who survived for 24 hours after resuscitation left the hospital. At the time of discharge from the hospital and again six months later, 93 per cent of the survivors were mentally intact. Although depression was generally present at the time of discharge, it tended to resolve subsequently. However, all patients reported some decrease in functional capacity, often attributed to fear. This persisted at six months after discharge. Age alone did not appear to influence the prognosis for survival after cardiopulmonary resuscitation or the adjustment to chronic illness after discharge from the hospital.

BACKGROUND: After cardiac surgery, acute renal failure (ARF) requiring dialysis develops in 1% to 5% of patients and is strongly associated with perioperative morbidity and mortality. Prior studies have attempted to identify predictors of ARF but have had insufficient power to perform multivariable analyses or to develop risk stratification algorithms. METHODS AND RESULTS: We conducted a prospective cohort study of 43 642 patients who underwent coronary artery bypass or valvular heart surgery in 43 Department of Veterans Affairs medical centers between April 1987 and March 1994. Logistic regression analysis was used to identify independent predictors of ARF requiring dialysis. A risk stratification algorithm derived from recursive partitioning was constructed and was validated on an independent sample of 3795 patients operated on between April and December 1994. The overall risk of ARF requiring dialysis was 1.1%. Thirty-day mortality in patients with ARF was 63.7%, compared with 4.3% in patients without ARF. Ten clinical variables related to baseline cardiovascular disease and renal function were independently associated with the risk of ARF. A risk stratification algorithm partitioned patients into low-risk (0.4%), medium-risk (0.9% to 2.8%), and high-risk (> or = 5.0%) groups on the basis of several of these factors and their interactions. CONCLUSIONS: The risk of ARF after cardiac surgery can be accurately quantified on the basis of readily available preoperative data. These findings may be used by physicians and surgeons to provide patients with improved risk estimates and to target high-risk subgroups for interventions aimed at reducing the risk and ameliorating the consequences of this serious complication.

To achieve more appropriate triage to the coronary care unit of patients presenting with acute chest pain, we used clinical data on 1379 patients at two hospitals to construct a simple computer protocol to predict the presence of myocardial infarction. When we tested this protocol prospectively in 4770 patients at two university hospitals and four community hospitals, the computer-derived protocol had a significantly higher specificity (74 vs. 71 percent) in predicting the absence of infarction than physicians deciding whether to admit patients to the coronary care unit, and it had a similar sensitivity in detecting the presence of infarction (88.0 vs. 87.8 percent). Decisions based solely on the computer protocol would have reduced the admission of patients without infarction to the coronary care unit by 11.5 percent without adversely affecting the admission of patients in whom emergent complications developed that required intensive care. Although this protocol should not be used to override careful clinical judgment in individual cases, the computer protocol for the most part yields accurate estimates of the probability of myocardial infarction. Decisions about admission to the coronary care unit based on the protocol would have been as effective as those actually made by the unaided physicians who cared for the patients, and less costly. Whether physicians who are aided by the protocol perform better than unaided physicians cannot be determined without further study.