Paolo Vineis

BACKGROUND: In 2011, WHO member states signed up to the 25 × 25 initiative, a plan to cut mortality due to non-communicable diseases by 25% by 2025. However, socioeconomic factors influencing non-communicable diseases have not been included in the plan. In this study, we aimed to compare the contribution of socioeconomic status to mortality and years-of-life-lost with that of the 25 × 25 conventional risk factors. METHODS: We did a multicohort study and meta-analysis with individual-level data from 48 independent prospective cohort studies with information about socioeconomic status, indexed by occupational position, 25 × 25 risk factors (high alcohol intake, physical inactivity, current smoking, hypertension, diabetes, and obesity), and mortality, for a total population of 1 751 479 (54% women) from seven high-income WHO member countries. We estimated the association of socioeconomic status and the 25 × 25 risk factors with all-cause mortality and cause-specific mortality by calculating minimally adjusted and mutually adjusted hazard ratios [HR] and 95% CIs. We also estimated the population attributable fraction and the years of life lost due to suboptimal risk factors. FINDINGS: During 26·6 million person-years at risk (mean follow-up 13·3 years [SD 6·4 years]), 310 277 participants died. HR for the 25 × 25 risk factors and mortality varied between 1·04 (95% CI 0·98-1·11) for obesity in men and 2 ·17 (2·06-2·29) for current smoking in men. Participants with low socioeconomic status had greater mortality compared with those with high socioeconomic status (HR 1·42, 95% CI 1·38-1·45 for men; 1·34, 1·28-1·39 for women); this association remained significant in mutually adjusted models that included the 25 × 25 factors (HR 1·26, 1·21-1·32, men and women combined). The population attributable fraction was highest for smoking, followed by physical inactivity then socioeconomic status. Low socioeconomic status was associated with a 2·1-year reduction in life expectancy between ages 40 and 85 years, the corresponding years-of-life-lost were 0·5 years for high alcohol intake, 0·7 years for obesity, 3·9 years for diabetes, 1·6 years for hypertension, 2·4 years for physical inactivity, and 4·8 years for current smoking. INTERPRETATION: Socioeconomic circumstances, in addition to the 25 × 25 factors, should be targeted by local and global health strategies and health risk surveillance to reduce mortality. FUNDING: European Commission, Swiss State Secretariat for Education, Swiss National Science Foundation, the Medical Research Council, NordForsk, Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology.

General obesity has been positively associated with risk of liver and probably with biliary tract cancer, but little is known about abdominal obesity or weight gain during adulthood. We used multivariable Cox proportional hazard models to investigate associations between weight, body mass index, waist and hip circumference, waist-to-hip and waist-to-height ratio (WHtR), weight change during adulthood and risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), intrahepatic (IBDC) and extrahepatic bile duct system cancer [EBDSC including gallbladder cancer (GBC)] among 359,525 men and women in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition study. Hepatitis B and C virus status was measured in a nested case-control subset. During a mean follow-up of 8.6 years, 177 cases of HCC, 58 cases of IBDC and 210 cases of EBDSC, including 76 cases of GBC, occurred. All anthropometric measures were positively associated with risk of HCC and GBC. WHtR showed the strongest association with HCC [relative risk (RR) comparing extreme tertiles 3.51, 95% confidence interval (95% CI): 2.09-5.87; p(trend) < 0.0001] and with GBC (RR: 1.56, 95% CI: 1.12-2.16 for an increment of one unit in WHtR). Weight gain during adulthood was also positively associated with HCC when comparing extreme tertiles (RR: 2.48, 95% CI: 1.49-4.13; <0.001). No statistically significant association was observed between obesity and risk of IBDC and EBDSC. Our results provide evidence of an association between obesity, particularly abdominal obesity, and risk of HCC and GBC. Our findings support public health recommendations to reduce the prevalence of obesity and weight gain in adulthood for HCC and GBC prevention in Western populations.

While the association between exposure to secondhand smoke and lung cancer risk is well established, few studies with sufficient power have examined the association by histological type. In this study, we evaluated the secondhand smoke-lung cancer relationship by histological type based on pooled data from 18 case-control studies in the International Lung Cancer Consortium (ILCCO), including 2,504 cases and 7,276 control who were never smokers and 10,184 cases and 7,176 controls who were ever smokers. We used multivariable logistic regression, adjusting for age, sex, race/ethnicity, smoking status, pack-years of smoking, and study. Among never smokers, the odds ratios (OR) comparing those ever exposed to secondhand smoke with those never exposed were 1.31 (95% CI: 1.17-1.45) for all histological types combined, 1.26 (95% CI: 1.10-1.44) for adenocarcinoma, 1.41 (95% CI: 0.99-1.99) for squamous cell carcinoma, 1.48 (95% CI: 0.89-2.45) for large cell lung cancer, and 3.09 (95% CI: 1.62-5.89) for small cell lung cancer. The estimated association with secondhand smoke exposure was greater for small cell lung cancer than for nonsmall cell lung cancers (OR=2.11, 95% CI: 1.11-4.04). This analysis is the largest to date investigating the relation between exposure to secondhand smoke and lung cancer. Our study provides more precise estimates of the impact of secondhand smoke on the major histological types of lung cancer, indicates the association with secondhand smoke is stronger for small cell lung cancer than for the other histological types, and suggests the importance of intervention against exposure to secondhand smoke in lung cancer prevention.

Calorie restriction (CR) and physical exercise (EX) are well-established interventions known to extend health span and lifespan in animal models. However, their impact on human biological aging remains unclear. With recent advances in omics technologies and biological age (BioAge) metrics, it is now possible to assess the impact of these lifestyle interventions without the need for long-term follow-up. This study compared BioAge biomarkers in 41 middle-aged and older adult long-term CR practitioners, 41 age- and sex-matched endurance athletes (EX), and 35 sedentary controls consuming Western diets (WD), through PhenoAge: a composite score derived from nine blood-biomarkers. Additionally, a subset of participants (12 CR, 11 EX, and 12 WD) underwent multi-omic profiling, including DNA methylation and RNAseq of colon mucosa, blood metabolomics, and stool metagenomics. A group of six young WD subjects (yWD) served as a reference for BioAge calculation using Mahalanobis distance across six omic layers. The results demonstrated consistently lower BioAge biomarkers in both CR and EX groups compared to WD controls across all layers. CR participants exhibited lower BioAge in gut microbiome and blood-derived omics, while EX participants had lower BioAge in colon mucosa-derived epigenetic and transcriptomic markers, suggesting potential tissue-specific effects. Multi-omic pathway enrichment analyses suggested both shared and intervention-specific mechanisms, including oxidative stress and basal transcription as common pathways, with ether lipid metabolism uniquely enriched in CR. Despite limitations due to sample size, these findings contribute to the broader understanding of the potential anti-aging effects of CR and EX, offering promising directions for further research.

Background: Diet may modify colorectal cancer risk. We investigated the associations of three dietary patterns, ultra-processed food (UPF) consumption, healthy plant-based food consumption, and food biodiversity, separately and combined into a "3V" score with risk of colorectal cancer. Methods: This study used data from the prospective European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) cohort, which recruited participants between 1992, and 2000, from 23 centres in ten European countries. The 3V score was developed by standardising and summing the healthy plant diet index (hPDI) and dietary species richness per year (DSR) and subtracting UPF (Nova category 4) intake in % g/day. Associations with colorectal cancer risk were assessed among 450,111 middle-aged participants of the EPIC cohort using multivariable-adjusted Cox regression models. Independent associations of each 3V component were assessed using mutually adjusted models. Data-driven thresholds were applied to assess adherence to the 3V components, set at the minimum value of the fourth quintile for hPDI, DSR and low UPF. Findings: During mean (standard deviation (SD)) follow-up of 14.9 (4) years, absolute colorectal cancer rates were 8.59 and 10.37 cases/10,000 person-years for the highest and lowest quintiles of the 3V score, respectively. Inverse associations were found for colorectal (hazard ratio (HR) comparing highest vs lowest quintile: 0.84; 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.76-0.94), colon (HR: 0.82; 95% CI: 0.72-0.93), and distal colon cancer (HR: 0.81; 95% CI: 0.67-0.99), with significant linear trends observed across quintiles. UPF intake was positively associated with colon cancer risk (HR per 1 SD increment: 1.06; 95% CI: 1.02-1.11) when mutually adjusted for the other 3V components. Adherence to low UPF, high hPDI, and high DSR was inversely associated with colorectal (HR: 0.73; 95% CI: 0.61-0.88), colon (HR: 0.72; 95% CI: 0.57-0.91), and rectal cancer (HR: 0.65; 95% CI: 0.46-0.91) compared to adhering to none. Interpretation: Adherence to the 3V diet is associated with lower risk of colorectal cancers. Funding: Cancer Research UK, World Cancer Research Fund.