Lijiao Zeng

BACKGROUND: Thousands of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) patients have been discharged from hospitals Persistent follow-up studies are required to evaluate the prevalence of post-COVID-19 fibrosis. METHODS: This study involves 462 laboratory-confirmed patients with COVID-19 who were admitted to Shenzhen Third People's Hospital from January 11, 2020 to April 26, 2020. A total of 457 patients underwent thin-section chest CT scans during the hospitalization or after discharge to identify the pulmonary lesion. A total of 287 patients were followed up from 90 to 150 days after the onset of the disease, and lung function tests were conducted about three months after the onset. The risk factors affecting the persistence of pulmonary fibrosis were identified through regression analysis and the prediction model of the persistence of pulmonary fibrosis was established. RESULTS: Parenchymal bands, irregular interfaces, reticulation and traction bronchiectasis were the most common CT features in all COVID-19 patients. During the 0-30, 31-60, 61-90, 91-120 and > 120 days after onset, 86.87%, 74.40%, 79.56%, 68.12% and 62.03% patients developed with pulmonary fibrosis and 4.53%, 19.61%, 18.02%, 38.30% and 48.98% patients reversed pulmonary fibrosis, respectively. It was observed that Age, BMI, Fever, and Highest PCT were predictive factors for sustaining fibrosis even after 90 days from onset. A predictive model of the persistence with pulmonary fibrosis was developed based-on the Logistic Regression method with an accuracy, PPV, NPV, Sensitivity and Specificity of the model of 76%, 71%, 79%, 67%, and 82%, respectively. More than half of the COVID-19 patients revealed abnormal conditions in lung function after 90 days from onset, and the ratio of abnormal lung function did not differ on a statistically significant level between the fibrotic and non-fibrotic groups. CONCLUSIONS: Persistent pulmonary fibrosis was more likely to develop in patients with older age, higher BMI, severe/critical condition, fever, a longer viral clearance time, pre-existing disease and delayed hospitalization. Fibrosis developed in COVID-19 patients could be reversed in about a third of the patients after 120 days from onset. The pulmonary function of less than half of COVID-19 patients could turn to normal condition after three months from onset. An effective prediction model with an average area under the curve (AUC) of 0.84 was established to predict the persistence of pulmonary fibrosis in COVID-19 patients for early diagnosis.

Abstract Background Management of high mortality risk due to significant progression requires prior assessment of time-to-progression. However, few related methods are available for COVID-19 pneumonia. Methods We retrospectively enrolled 338 adult patients admitted to one hospital between Jan 11, 2020 to Feb 29, 2020. The final follow-up date was March 8, 2020. We compared characteristics between patients with severe and non-severe outcome, and used multivariate survival analyses to assess the risk of progression to severe conditions. Results A total of 76 (31.9%) patients progressed to severe conditions and 3 (0.9%) died. The mean time from hospital admission to severity onset is 3.7 days. Age, body mass index (BMI), fever symptom on admission, co-existing hypertension or diabetes are associated with severe progression. Compared to non-severe group, the severe group already demonstrated, at an early stage, abnormalities in biomarkers indicating organ function, inflammatory responses, blood oxygen and coagulation function. The cohort is characterized with increasing cumulative incidences of severe progression up to 10 days after admission. Competing risks survival model incorporating CT imaging and baseline information showed an improved performance for predicting severity onset (mean time-dependent AUC = 0.880). Conclusions Multiple predisposition factors can be utilized to assess the risk of progression to severe conditions at an early stage. Multivariate survival models can reasonably analyze the progression risk based on early-stage CT images that would otherwise be misjudged by artificial analysis.

BACKGROUND: The aim of this study was to analyze the combination with long-term, low-dose hepatitis B immunoglobulin (HBIG) and nucleos(t)ide analogs as prophylaxis for hepatitis B virus (HBV) recurrence and to assess the risk factors of HBV recurrence after orthotopic liver transplantation (OLT). METHODS: One hundred sixty patients undergoing OLT with HBV-related liver disease make up the cohort studied. Long-term, low dosage of HBIG in combination with nucleos(t)ide analogs were used as prophylaxis for HBV recurrence after OLT. Patient preoperative data were collected by a retrospective method, and the rate and risk factors of HBV recurrence post-OLT after a long-term follow-up were analyzed. RESULTS: Nineteen patients developed hepatitis B recurrence for a rate of recurrence of 11.88% (19/160). There was no significant correlation between HBV recurrence after OLT and the level of HBV DNA, HBeAg state pre-OLT, or the use of nucleoside analog drug therapy pre-OLT (P>0.05). Of 19 patients with HBV recurrence, 17 patients used Lamivudine, and HBV YMDD mutants were detected in nine cases. The HBV-YMDD mutation was the major reason for recurrence of HBV in our study (P<0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Long-term use of combination prophylaxis with nucleoside analogs and low-dose HBIG can effectively prevent hepatitis B recurrence after OLT, and that a positive preoperative serum HBV DNA status did not affect the recurrence rate of HBV post-OLT. Preoperative nucleoside analogs therapy is unlikely to be obligatory if the patients received effective combination prophylaxis postoperatively. HBV YMDD mutation is the primary reason for HBV recurrence in patients treated with Lamivudine after OLT.

Abstract Background: Thousands of the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) patients have been discharged from hospitals, persistent follow-up studies are required to evaluate the prevalence of post-COVID-19 fibrosis. Methods: This study involves 462 laboratory confirmed patients with COVID-19 who were admitted to Shenzhen Third People’s Hospital from January 11, 2020 to April 26, 2020. A total of 457 patients underwent thin-section chest CT scans during the hospitalization or after discharge to identify the pulmonary lesion. A total of 287 patients were followed up from 90 days to 150 days after the onset of the disease, and lung function tests were conducted in about three months after the onset. The risk factors affecting the persistence of pulmonary fibrosis were identified through regression analysis and the prediction model of the persistence of pulmonary fibrosis was established. Results: Parenchymal bands, irregular interfaces, reticulation and traction bronchiectasis were the most common CT features in all COVID-19 patients. During the 0-30, 31-60, 61-90, 91-120 and &gt;120 days after onset, 86.87%, 74.40%, 79.56%, 68.12% and 62.03% patients developed with pulmonary fibrosis and 4.53%, 19.61%, 18.02%, 38.30% and 48.98% patients reversed pulmonary fibrosis, respectively. It was observed that Age, BMI, Fever, and Highest PCT were predictive factors for sustaining fibrosis even after 90 days from onset. A predictive model of the persistence with pulmonary fibrosis was developed based-on the Logistic Regression method with an accuracy, PPV, NPV, Sensitivity and Specificity of the model of 76%, 71%, 79%, 67%, and 82%, respectively. More than half of COVID-19 patients revealed abnormal condition in lung function after 90 days from onset, and the ratio of abnormal lung function did not differ on a statistically significant level between the fibrotic and non-fibrotic groups. Conclusions: Persistent pulmonary fibrosis was more likely to develop in patients with older age, high BMI, severe/critical condition, fever, long time to turn the viral RNA negative, pre-existing disease and delay to admission. Fibrosis developed in COVID-19 patients could be reversed in about a third of the patients after 120 days from onset. The pulmonary function of less than half of COVID-19 patients could turn to normal condition after three months from onset. An effective prediction model with an average Area Under the Curve (AUC) of 0.84 was established to predict the persistence of pulmonary fibrosis in COVID-19 patients for early diagnosis.