A. Kramar

Purpose: Cisplatin-containing chemotherapy has dramatically improved the outlook for patients with metastatic germ cell tumors (GCT), and overall cure rates now exceed 80%. To make appropriate risk-based decisions about therapy and to facilitate collaborative trials, a simple prognostic factor-based staging classification is required.Materials: Collaborative groups from 10 countries provided clinical data on patients with metastatic GCT treated with cisplatin-containing chemotherapy. Multivariate analyses of prognostic factors for progression and survival were performed and models were validated on on independent data set.Results: Data were available on 5,202 patients with nonseminomatous GCT (NSGCT) and 660 patients with seminoma. Median follow-up time was 5 years, For NSGCT the following independent adverse factors were identified: mediastinal primary site; degree of elevation of alpha-fetoprotein (AFP), human chorionic gonadotropin (HCG), and lactic dehydrogenase (LDH); and presence of nonpulmonary visceral metastases (NPVM), such as liver, bone, and brain. For seminoma, the predominant adverse feature was the presence of NPVM. integration of these factors produced the following groupings: good prognosis, comprising 60% of GCT with a 91% (89% to 93%) 5-year survival rate; intermediate prognosis, comprising 26% of GCT with a 79% (75% to 83%) 5-year survival rate; and poor prognosis, comprising 14% of GCT (all with NSGCT) with a 48% (42% to 54%) 5-year survival rate.Conclusion: An easily applicable, clinically based, prognostic classification for GCT has been agreed on between all the major clinical trial groups who are presently active worldwide. This should be used in clinical practice and in the design and reporting of clinical trials to aid international collaboration and understanding. (C) 1997 by American Society of Clinical Oncology.

PURPOSE: To identify prognostic variables for response and survival in male patients with relapsed or refractory germ cell tumors treated with high-dose chemotherapy (HDCT) and hematopoietic progenitor cell support. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Three hundred ten patients treated with HDCT at four centers in the United States and Europe were retrospectively evaluated. Univariate and multivariate analysis of patient, disease, and treatment characteristics were used for comparisons of response rates and failure-free survival (FFS). RESULTS: The actuarial FFS rate was 32% at 1, 30% at 2, and 29% at 3 years. Multivariate analysis identified progressive disease before HDCT, mediastinal nonseminomatous primary tumor, refractory or absolute refractory disease to conventional-dose cisplatin, and human chorionic gonadotropin (HCG) levels greater than 1,000 U/L before HDCT as independent adverse prognostic variables for FFS after HDCT. These variables were used to identify patients with good, intermediate, and poor prognoses. In the good-risk category, the predicted FFS rate at 2 years was 51%, compared with 27% and 5% in the intermediate-risk and poor-risk categories (P < .001). The increased risk for treatment failure was due to both a significantly lower rate of favorable responses and a significantly higher rate of relapses. Within the prognostic categories, the particular HDCT regimen or higher dosages of carboplatin or etoposide did not have a significant influence on treatment outcome. CONCLUSION: Prognostic variables for treatment response after HDCT can be identified. The proposed prognostic model might help to optimize the use of HDCT in germ cell tumors and warrants validation in future trials.

PURPOSE: To analyze different events that determine event-free survival (EFS) in a randomized trial on adjuvant radiotherapy in early breast cancer patients with more than 15 years of follow-up evaluation. PATIENTS AND METHODS: The trial included 960 patients with a unilateral, operable breast cancer. Surgery consisted of a modified radical mastectomy. The trial compared three arms, as follows: preoperative radiotherapy, postoperative radiotherapy, and no adjuvant treatment. Events were analyzed by a competing-risk approach. A proportional hazards multiple regression model was used to analyze the effects of radiotherapy on the risk of distant metastasis. Similar analyses were performed separately for node-negative [N(-)] and node-positive [N(+)] patients in the two groups that did not include preoperative radiotherapy. RESULTS: Radiotherapy produced a fivefold decrease of the risk of local recurrence (P < .0001). In N(+) patients, postoperative radiotherapy decreased the risk of distant dissemination (relative risk, 0.63). When local recurrence was introduced in the model as a time-dependent covariate, this factor was predictive of distant dissemination (P < .0001) and nullified the effect of postoperative radiotherapy. This finding suggests that the decrease of distant metastases was related to the prevention of local recurrence. A similar effect was found in models that used overall survival as an end point. CONCLUSION: This study shows that postmastectomy radiotherapy in N(+) breast cancer patients may decrease the distant metastasis rate by preventing local recurrences and thus avoiding secondary dissemination.