Diptismita Jena

BACKGROUND: Cancer poses a significant public health challenge in India, making it crucial to predict its future impact for effective healthcare planning. This study forecast cancer incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) in India from 2022 to 2031. METHODS: We extracted age-standardized data on incidence, prevalence, DALYs, and mortality from 1990 to 2021 from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study. We used Decadal Average Percentage Change techniques to identify trends in cancer burden over decades and the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) method were used for forecasting. The ARIMA (2,2,2) model was identified as the best for predicting cancer incidence, ARIMA (0,3,3) for DALYs, and ARIMA (0,2,2) for mortality. RESULTS: The cancer incidence rate is expected to rise from 529.40 (95% CI: 525.41-533.38) in 2022 to 549.17 (95% CI: 487.43-610.92) per 100,000 population in 2031. The DALYs rate is projected to decrease from 2001.53 (95% CI: 1964.24-2038.82) in 2022 to 1842.08 (95% CI: 1273.57-2410.60) per 100,000 population in 2031, indicating improvements in cancer burden management. Mortality rates are forecasted to increase slightly, from 71.52 (95% CI: 69.91-73.12) in 2022 to 73.00 (95% CI: 60.88-85.11) per 100,000 population in 2031. Overall, while incidence and mortality rates show a slight upward trend, the DALYs rate is projected to decrease, reflecting potential advancements in cancer management and treatment over the forecast period. CONCLUSIONS: Over the next decade, cancer incidence and mortality are expected to increase in India, highlighting the need for enhanced prevention, early detection, and proper treatment strategies. Despite these increases, the anticipated decrease in DALYs suggests potential advancements in cancer management, warranting further investigation into the drivers of this positive trend and measures to sustain it.

Objectives: This paper aims to comprehensively analyze trends in gynecological cancers among elderly women in the United States from 1975 to 2020. Methods: Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) population data were utilized for the analysis. Annual Percentage Change (APC) and Average APC were estimated using join-point regression to assess trends in mortality rates. Results: The study reveals an increasing pattern of incidence and mortality in all gynaecological cancer sites except cervical cancer among elderly. The incidence of cervical cancer decreased from 1975 to 2007 and then increased, whereas cancer-specific mortality decreased from 1977 to 2020, indicating positive advancements in detection and treatment. Conclusions: Despite progress in managing certain gynecological cancers, challenges persist, particularly evidenced by increasing mortality rates for cancers in other female genital organs. This underscores the necessity for sustained research efforts and targeted interventions to address these ongoing challenges effectively.

Background: Diabetes is a major public health concern in India, contributing significantly to morbidity and mortality. With variations in disease burden across states, a detailed understanding of trends in incidence, prevalence, and Disability Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) is essential for targeted interventions. Methods: This study utilized Global Burden of Disease (GBD) data from 1990 to 2021 to examine trends in diabetes across Indian states. Age-standardized incidence, prevalence, mortality, and DALYs were analyzed using Join point regression to estimate Annual Percentage Change (APC). Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models were employed to project diabetes trends up to 2031.While the GBD data provide robust national and regional estimates, their modeled nature may not capture the full spectrum of local epidemiological variations. Results: Diabetes incidence increased from 162.74 to 264.53 per 100,000 between 1990 and 2021, with an APC of 0.63%. Joinpoint analysis identified episodic surges in incidence, with APCs of 2.25% during 1996-1999 and 2.07% during 2005-2011, suggesting intervals of accelerated increase relative to the gradual progression typically observed in chronic conditions. Mortality rose from 23.09 to 31.12 per 100,000 (APC: 0.12%). Southern and Western states, such as Tamil Nadu and Goa, exhibited the highest prevalence and DALYs. Forecasted trends indicate that by 2031, the prevalence will reach 8585.45 per 100,000, and DALYs will exceed 1241.57 per 100,000. Conclusion: The burden of diabetes in India has risen markedly over the past three decades. These findings underscore the urgent need for health policies that emphasize lifestyle modifications and improved healthcare access. A comprehensive approach that integrates primary prevention through community-based health education, dietary counseling, and initiatives to promote physical activity with secondary prevention measures such as systematic screening and timely clinical management, is essential for effective diabetes control and management in high-burden states.

Background: The recent outbreak of Monkeypox (Mpox), particularly the clade 1b variant, have shifted the epidemiological landscape, making it a Public Health Emergency of International Concern. Africa remains a hotspot with significant ongoing outbreaks, necessitating a focused study on outbreak trends and forecasting to guide health interventions. Methods: This study utilizes a comprehensive dataset from the four most affected African countries, covering weekly and cumulative Mpox cases from August 6, 2023, to August 18, 2024. Time series analysis techniques, including ARIMA models and Join Point Regression, were employed to forecast Mpox trends and analyse the annual percentage change in new cases. Results: Descriptive statistics highlighted significant variability in Mpox cases across the studied regions with the mean cases in Africa at 72.55 and a high standard deviation of 60.885. Forecasting models suggest a continued increase in Mpox cases, with cumulative cases expected to reach 6922.95 by the 65th week (95 % CI: 6158.62 to 7687.27) and new cases projected at 45.93 (95 % CI: -88.17 to 180.04). Conclusion: The study underscores the persistent nature of Mpox outbreaks in Africa and the critical need for continuous surveillance and adaptive public health strategies. The forecasts generated offer valuable insights into potential future trends, aiding in the allocation of resources and the implementation of targeted health interventions to curb the spread of the disease.