Peter C. O’Brien

A multiple testing procedure is proposed for comparing two treatments when response to treatment is both dichotomous (i.e., success or failure) and immediate. The proposed test statistic for each test is the usual (Pearson) chi-square statistic based on all data collected to that point. The maximum number (N) of tests and the number (m1 + m2) of observations collected between successive tests is fixed in advance. The overall size of the procedure is shown to be controlled with virtually the same accuracy as the single sample chi-square test based on N(m1 + m2) observations. The power is also found to be virtually the same. However, by affording the opportunity to terminate early when one treatment performs markedly better than the other, the multiple testing procedure may eliminate the ethical dilemmas that often accompany clinical trials.

OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the spectrum of neuromyelitis optica (NMO), including characteristics of the index events (optic neuritis [ON]) and myelitis), neuroimaging, CSF, and serologic studies, and to evaluate the long-term course. METHODS: Review of 71 patients with NMO evaluated at the Mayo Clinic between 1950 and 1997. RESULTS: NMO was either monophasic or relapsing. Patients with a monophasic course (n = 23) usually presented with rapidly sequential index events (median 5 days) with moderate recovery. Most with a relapsing course (n = 48) had an extended interval between index events (median 166 days) followed within 3 years by clusters of severe relapses isolated to the optic nerves and spinal cord. Most relapsing patients developed severe disability in a stepwise manner, and one-third died because of respiratory failure. Features of NMO distinct from "typical" MS included >50 cells/mm3 in CSF (often polymorphonuclear), normal initial brain MRI, and lesions extending over three or more vertebral segments on spinal cord MRI. CONCLUSIONS: Clinical, laboratory, and imaging features generally distinguish neuromyelitis optica from MS. Patients with relapsing optic neuritis and myelitis may have neuromyelitis optica rather than MS. Patients with a relapsing course of neuromyelitis optica have a poor prognosis and frequently develop respiratory failure during attacks of cervical myelitis.

OBJECTIVE: To test the hypothesis that MRI-based measurements of hippocampal volume are related to the risk of future conversion to Alzheimer's disease (AD) in older patients with a mild cognitive impairment (MCI). BACKGROUND: Patients who develop AD pass through a transitional state, which can be characterized as MCI. In some patients, however, MCI is a more benign condition, which may not progress to AD or may do so slowly. PATIENTS: Eighty consecutive patients who met criteria for the diagnosis of MCI were recruited from the Mayo Clinic Alzheimer's Disease Center/Alzheimer's Disease Patient Registry. METHODS: At entry into the study, each patient received an MRI examination of the head, from which the volumes of both hippocampi were measured. Patients were followed longitudinally with approximately annual clinical/cognitive assessments. The primary endpoint was the crossover of individual MCI patients to the clinical diagnosis of AD during longitudinal clinical follow-up. RESULTS: During the period of longitudinal observation, which averaged 32.6 months, 27 of the 80 MCI patients became demented. Hippocampal atrophy at baseline was associated with crossover from MCI to AD (relative risk [RR], 0.69, p = 0.015). When hippocampal volume was entered into bivariate models-using age, postmenopausal estrogen replacement, standard neuropsychological tests, apolipoprotein E (APOE) genotype, history of ischemic heart disease, and hypertension-the RRs were not substantially different from that found univariately, and the associations between hippocampal volume and crossover remained significant. CONCLUSION: In older patients with MCI, hippocampal atrophy determined by premorbid MRI-based volume measurements is predictive of subsequent conversion to AD.

Five procedures are considered for the comparison of two or more multivariate samples. These procedures include a newly proposed nonparametric rank-sum test and a generalized least squares test. Also considered are the following tests: ordinary least squares, Hotelling's T2, and a Bonferroni per-experiment error-rate approach. Applications are envisaged in which each variable represents a qualitatively different measure of response to treatment. The null hypothesis of no treatment difference is tested with power directed towards alternatives in which at least one treatment is uniformly better than the others. In all simulations the nonparametric procedure provided relatively good power and accurate control over the size of the test, and is recommended for general use. Alternatively, the generalized least squares procedure may also be useful with normally distributed data in moderate or large samples. A convenient expression for this procedure is obtained and its asymptotic relative efficiency with respect to the ordinary least squares test is evaluated.

Magnetic resonance imaging (MRI)-based volumetric measurements of medial temporal lobe (MTL) structures can discriminate between normal elderly control subjects and patients with Alzheimer's disease (AD) of moderate to advanced severity. In terms of clinical utility, however, a more important issue concerns the ability of the technique to differentiate between normal elderly control subjects and AD patients with the very mildest form of the disease. We performed MRI-based volumetric measurements of the hippocampus, parahippocampal gyrus, and amygdala in 126 cognitively normal elderly control subjects and 94 patients with probable AD. The diagnosis of AD was made according to NINDS/ADRDA criteria, and disease severity was categorized by Clinical Dementia Rating (CDR) scores. Patients with CDR 0.5 were classified as very mild, CDR 1 as mild, and CDR 2 as moderate disease severity. Volumes of each structure declined with increasing age in control subjects and did so in parallel for men and women. The volume of each measured MTL structure also declined with age in patients with AD. The volume of each MTL structure was significantly smaller in AD patients than control subjects (p < 0.001). Of the several MTL measures, the total hippocampal volumetric measurements were best at discriminating control subjects from AD patients. The mean hippocampal volumes for AD patients relative to control subjects by severity of disease were as follows: very mild AD (CDR 0.5) -1.75 SD below the control mean, mild AD (CDR 1) -1.99 SD, and moderate AD (CDR 2) -2.22 SD. Age- and gender-adjusted, normalized MRI-based hippocampal volumetric measurements provide a sensitive marker of the MTL neuroanatomic degeneration in AD early in the disease process.