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Chaoming Song

University of Miami

ORCID: 0000-0002-3048-7046

Publishes on Complex Network Analysis Techniques, Opinion Dynamics and Social Influence, Material Dynamics and Properties. 113 papers and 13.6k citations.

113Publications
13.6kTotal Citations

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Top publicationsby citations

Limits of Predictability in Human Mobility
Chaoming Song, Zehui Qu, Nicholas Blumm et al.|Science|2010
Cited by 3.2k

Predictable Travel Routines While people rarely perceive their actions to be random, current models of human activity are fundamentally stochastic. Processes that rely on human mobility patterns, like the prediction of new epidemics, traffic engineering, or city planning, could benefit from highly accurate predictive models. To investigate the predictability of human dynamics, Song et al. (p. 1018 ) used the recorded trajectories of millions of mobile phone users, collected by mobile phone companies and anonymized for research purposes. They hypothesized that given the wide range of travel patterns that different users follow, there would be significant differences between their predictability as well: Users who travel less should be easier to predict than those who are constantly on the road. Surprisingly, there was 93% predictability across the whole user base, and individuals' predictability did not in general fall significantly below 80%.

Quantifying Long-Term Scientific Impact
Cited by 863Open Access

The lack of predictability of citation-based measures frequently used to gauge impact, from impact factors to short-term citations, raises a fundamental question: Is there long-term predictability in citation patterns? Here, we derive a mechanistic model for the citation dynamics of individual papers, allowing us to collapse the citation histories of papers from different journals and disciplines into a single curve, indicating that all papers tend to follow the same universal temporal pattern. The observed patterns not only help us uncover basic mechanisms that govern scientific impact but also offer reliable measures of influence that may have potential policy implications.