Yan Zhang

Importance: Prior studies have raised concern about maternal acetaminophen use during pregnancy and increased risk of attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) and autism spectrum disorder (ASD) in their children; however, most studies have relied on maternal self-report. Objective: To examine the prospective associations between cord plasma acetaminophen metabolites and physician-diagnosed ADHD, ASD, both ADHD and ASD, and developmental disabilities (DDs) in childhood. Design, Setting, and Participants: This prospective cohort study analyzed 996 mother-infant dyads, a subset of the Boston Birth Cohort, who were enrolled at birth and followed up prospectively at the Boston Medical Center from October 1, 1998, to June 30, 2018. Exposures: Three cord acetaminophen metabolites (unchanged acetaminophen, acetaminophen glucuronide, and 3-[N-acetyl-l-cystein-S-yl]-acetaminophen) were measured in archived cord plasma samples collected at birth. Main Outcomes and Measures: Physician-diagnosed ADHD, ASD, and other DDs as documented in the child's medical records. Results: Of 996 participants (mean [SD] age, 9.8 [3.9] years; 548 [55.0%] male), the final sample included 257 children (25.8%) with ADHD only, 66 (6.6%) with ASD only, 42 (4.2%) with both ADHD and ASD, 304 (30.5%) with other DDs, and 327 (32.8%) who were neurotypical. Unchanged acetaminophen levels were detectable in all cord plasma samples. Compared with being in the first tertile, being in the second and third tertiles of cord acetaminophen burden was associated with higher odds of ADHD diagnosis (odds ratio [OR] for second tertile, 2.26; 95% CI, 1.40-3.69; OR for third tertile, 2.86; 95% CI, 1.77-4.67) and ASD diagnosis (OR for second tertile, 2.14; 95% CI, 0.93-5.13; OR for third tertile, 3.62; 95% CI, 1.62-8.60). Sensitivity analyses and subgroup analyses found consistent associations between acetaminophen buden and ADHD and acetaminophen burden and ASD across strata of potential confounders, including maternal indication, substance use, preterm birth, and child age and sex, for which point estimates for the ORs vary from 2.3 to 3.5 for ADHD and 1.6 to 4.1 for ASD. Conclusions and Relevance: Cord biomarkers of fetal exposure to acetaminophen were associated with significantly increased risk of childhood ADHD and ASD in a dose-response fashion. Our findings support previous studies regarding the association between prenatal and perinatal acetaminophen exposure and childhood neurodevelopmental risk and warrant additional investigations.

Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have led to the identification of hundreds of susceptibility loci across cancers, but the impact of further studies remains uncertain. Here we analyse summary-level data from GWAS of European ancestry across fourteen cancer sites to estimate the number of common susceptibility variants (polygenicity) and underlying effect-size distribution. All cancers show a high degree of polygenicity, involving at a minimum of thousands of loci. We project that sample sizes required to explain 80% of GWAS heritability vary from 60,000 cases for testicular to over 1,000,000 cases for lung cancer. The maximum relative risk achievable for subjects at the 99th risk percentile of underlying polygenic risk scores (PRS), compared to average risk, ranges from 12 for testicular to 2.5 for ovarian cancer. We show that PRS have potential for risk stratification for cancers of breast, colon and prostate, but less so for others because of modest heritability and lower incidence.

BACKGROUND: External validation of risk models is critical for risk-stratified breast cancer prevention. We used the Individualized Coherent Absolute Risk Estimation (iCARE) as a flexible tool for risk model development and comparative model validation and to make projections for population risk stratification. METHODS: Performance of two recently developed models, one based on the Breast and Prostate Cancer Cohort Consortium analysis (iCARE-BPC3) and another based on a literature review (iCARE-Lit), were compared with two established models (Breast Cancer Risk Assessment Tool and International Breast Cancer Intervention Study Model) based on classical risk factors in a UK-based cohort of 64 874 white non-Hispanic women (863 patients) age 35-74 years. Risk projections in a target population of US white non-Hispanic women age 50-70 years assessed potential improvements in risk stratification by adding mammographic breast density (MD) and polygenic risk score (PRS). RESULTS: The best calibrated models were iCARE-Lit (expected to observed number of cases [E/O] = 0.98, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.87 to 1.11) for women younger than 50 years, and iCARE-BPC3 (E/O = 1.00, 95% CI = 0.93 to 1.09) for women 50 years or older. Risk projections using iCARE-BPC3 indicated classical risk factors can identify approximately 500 000 women at moderate to high risk (>3% 5-year risk) in the target population. Addition of MD and a 313-variant PRS is expected to increase this number to approximately 3.5 million women, and among them, approximately 153 000 are expected to develop invasive breast cancer within 5 years. CONCLUSIONS: iCARE models based on classical risk factors perform similarly to or better than BCRAT or IBIS in white non-Hispanic women. Addition of MD and PRS can lead to substantial improvements in risk stratification. However, these integrated models require independent prospective validation before broad clinical applications.

BACKGROUND: Recent studies suggest that ambient air pollution exposure during pregnancy is associated with stillbirth occurrence. However, the results on the associations between ambient air pollutants and stillbirths are inconsistent and little is known about the gestational timing of sensitive periods for the effects of ambient air pollutants exposure on stillbirth. OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to examine whether exposure to high levels of ambient air pollutants in a Chinese population is associated with an increased risk of stillbirth, and determine the gestational period when the fetus is most susceptible. METHODS: We conducted a population-based cohort study in Wuhan, China, involving 95,354 births between June 10, 2011 and June 9, 2013. The exposure assessments were based on the daily mean concentrations of air pollutants obtained from the exposure monitor nearest to the pregnant women's residence. Logistic regression analyses were performed to determine the associations between stillbirths and exposure to each of the air pollutants at different pregnancy periods with adjustment for confounding factors. RESULTS: and CO exposures were found to be consistently associated with stillbirth. CONCLUSIONS: and CO increases the risk of stillbirth and the most susceptible gestational period to ambient air pollution exposure was in the third trimester. Further toxicological and prospective cohort studies with improved exposure assessments are needed to confirm the causal link between air pollutants and stillbirth.