David Archer

A coral reef represents the net accumulation of calcium carbonate (CaCO3) produced by corals and other calcifying organisms. If calcification declines, then reef-building capacity also declines. Coral reef calcification depends on the saturation state of the carbonate mineral aragonite of surface waters. By the middle of the next century, an increased concentration of carbon dioxide will decrease the aragonite saturation state in the tropics by 30 percent and biogenic aragonite precipitation by 14 to 30 percent. Coral reefs are particularly threatened, because reef-building organisms secrete metastable forms of CaCO3, but the biogeochemical consequences on other calcifying marine ecosystems may be equally severe.

CO 2 released from combustion of fossil fuels equilibrates among the various carbon reservoirs of the atmosphere, the ocean, and the terrestrial biosphere on timescales of a few centuries. However, a sizeable fraction of the CO 2 remains in the atmosphere, awaiting a return to the solid earth by much slower weathering processes and deposition of CaCO 3 . Common measures of the atmospheric lifetime of CO 2 , including the e-folding time scale, disregard the long tail. Its neglect in the calculation of global warming potentials leads many to underestimate the longevity of anthropogenic global warming. Here, we review the past literature on the atmospheric lifetime of fossil fuel CO 2 and its impact on climate, and we present initial results from a model intercomparison project on this topic. The models agree that 20–35% of the CO 2 remains in the atmosphere after equilibration with the ocean (2–20 centuries). Neutralization by CaCO 3 draws the airborne fraction down further on timescales of 3 to 7 kyr.

We compiled and standardized sediment trap data below 1000 m depth from 52 locations around the globe to infer the implications of the Armstrong et al. [2002] “ballast” model to the ratio of organic carbon to calcium carbonate in the deep sea (the rain ratio). We distinguished three forms of mineral ballast: calcium carbonate, opal, and lithogenic material. We concur with Armstrong et al. [2002] that organic carbon sinking fluxes correlate tightly with mineral fluxes. Based on the correlations seen in the trap data, we conclude that most of the organic carbon rain in the deep sea is carried by calcium carbonate, because it is denser than opal and more abundant than terrigenous material. This analysis explains the constancy of the organic carbon to calcium carbonate rain ratio in the deep sea today, and argues against large changes in the mean value of this ratio in the past. However, sediment trap data show variability in the ratio in areas of high relative calcium carbonate export (mass CaCO 3 /mass ratio > 0.4), unexplainable by the model, leaving open the possibility of regional variations in the rain ratio in the past.

A model of the ocean and seafloor carbon cycle is subjected to injection of new CO 2 pulses of varying sizes to estimate the resident atmospheric fraction over the coming 100 kyr. The model is used to separate the processes of air‐sea equilibrium, an ocean temperature feedback, CaCO 3 compensation, and silicate weathering on the residual anthropogenic pCO 2 in the atmosphere at 1, 10, and 100 kyr. The mean lifetime of anthropogenic CO 2 is dominated by the long tail, resulting in a range of 30–35 kyr. The long lifetime of fossil fuel carbon release implies that the anthropogenic climate perturbation may have time to interact with ice sheets, methane clathrate deposits, and glacial/interglacial climate dynamics.