Andrea Day

OBJECTIVE: To assess the efficacy of a progesterone-based algorithm for the management of women with pregnancies of unknown location (PULs) and explore the feasibility of developing a single-visit strategy in those with a low risk of requiring medical intervention. METHODS: All clinically stable women in whom pregnancy could not be identified on ultrasound scan were managed by a pre-defined protocol based on measurement of serum progesterone and beta-human chorionic gonadotropin (beta-hCG). Intervention in the form of surgery or medical treatment with methotrexate was offered to all women with persistent or worsening symptoms and non-declining serum beta-hCG. Decision-tree analysis was used to develop a protocol for the management of women with resolving pregnancies who are at low risk of requiring medical intervention. RESULTS: 1110 women were included in the data analysis: normal intrauterine pregnancy was diagnosed in 248 (22.3%; 95% CI, 19.9-24.8) women. 761 (68.6%; 95% CI, 65.8-71.3) abnormal pregnancies resolved spontaneously on expectant management, while the remaining 101 (9.1%; 95% CI, 7.4-10.8) women with abnormal pregnancies required some form of medical intervention. Intervention rates in patients presenting with initial serum progesterone levels of <or= 20 nmol/L and <or= 10 nmol/L, were 3.9% (95% CI, 2.4-5.4) and 2.1% (95% CI, 0.9-3.3), respectively. In women presenting with progesterone <or= 10 nmol/L and beta-hCG < 450 IU/L, the intervention rate was 1.3% (95% CI, 0.2-2.5). CONCLUSION: Women with PULs with progesterone <or= 10 nmol/L at presentation are at low risk of requiring medical intervention and may not benefit from attending routine follow-up visits.

OBJECTIVE: To establish clearance curves for serum β -hCG in women with successfully expectantly managed tubal ectopic pregnancies. DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study. Non- viable tubal ectopic pregnancy was diagnosed on transvaginal ultrasound. If initial serum β hCG was less than 5000 IU/L and patients were asymptomatic, expectant management was offered. Patients underwent serial β hCG measurements until serum β hCG was less than 20 IU/l, or the urine pregnancy test was negative. SETTING: Early Pregnancy and Gynaecology Assessment Unit, Kings College Hospital, London (December 1998 to July 2006). PATIENTS: We included 161 women with diagnosed non-viable tubal ectopic pregnancy who underwent successful expectant management. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Serum β hCG level. RESULTS: Mean initial serum β- hCG was 488 IU/L (41 - 4883) and median serum β hCG clearance time was 19 days (5 - 82). The average half-life of β hCG clearance was 82.5 hours (±SD 50.2) in patients with steadily declining serum β- hCG levels compared to 106.7 hours (±SD 72.0) in patients with primarily plateauing β-hCG levels in the declining phase. However, these differences were not significant (p>0.05). CONCLUSION: We identified a median follow-up of 19 days until serum β hCG clearance in women with tubal ectopic pregnancy and successful expectant management. Although non- significant, women with initially plateauing serum β hCG showed a longer follow-up time until clearance compared to women with steadily declining β hCG levels. This information may serve as a guideline enabling clinicians to predict the length of follow-up for women with tubal ectopic pregnancy and expectant management.