Brody H. Foy

Importance: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is an acute respiratory illness with a high rate of hospitalization and mortality. Biomarkers are urgently needed for patient risk stratification. Red blood cell distribution width (RDW), a component of complete blood counts that reflects cellular volume variation, has been shown to be associated with elevated risk for morbidity and mortality in a wide range of diseases. Objective: To investigate whether an association between mortality risk and elevated RDW at hospital admission and during hospitalization exists in patients with COVID-19. Design, Setting, and Participants: This cohort study included adults diagnosed with SARS-CoV-2 infection and admitted to 1 of 4 hospitals in the Boston, Massachusetts area (Massachusetts General Hospital, Brigham and Women's Hospital, North Shore Medical Center, and Newton-Wellesley Hospital) between March 4, 2020, and April 28, 2020. Main Outcomes and Measures: The main outcome was patient survival during hospitalization. Measures included RDW at admission and during hospitalization, with an elevated RDW defined as greater than 14.5%. Relative risk (RR) of mortality was estimated by dividing the mortality of those with an elevated RDW by the mortality of those without an elevated RDW. Mortality hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% CIs were estimated using a Cox proportional hazards model. Results: A total of 1641 patients were included in the study (mean [SD] age, 62[18] years; 886 men [54%]; 740 White individuals [45%] and 497 Hispanic individuals [30%]; 276 nonsurvivors [17%]). Elevated RDW (>14.5%) was associated with an increased mortality risk in patients of all ages. The RR for the entire cohort was 2.73, with a mortality rate of 11% in patients with normal RDW (1173) and 31% in those with an elevated RDW (468). The RR in patients younger than 50 years was 5.25 (normal RDW, 1% [n = 341]; elevated RDW, 8% [n = 65]); 2.90 in the 50- to 59-year age group (normal RDW, 8% [n = 256]; elevated RDW, 24% [n = 63]); 3.96 in the 60- to 69-year age group (normal RDW, 8% [n = 226]; elevated RDW, 30% [104]); 1.45 in the 70- to 79-year age group (normal RDW, 23% [n = 182]; elevated RDW, 33% [n = 113]); and 1.59 in those ≥80 years (normal RDW, 29% [n = 168]; elevated RDW, 46% [n = 123]). RDW was associated with mortality risk in Cox proportional hazards models adjusted for age, D-dimer (dimerized plasmin fragment D) level, absolute lymphocyte count, and common comorbidities such as diabetes and hypertension (hazard ratio of 1.09 per 0.5% RDW increase and 2.01 for an RDW >14.5% vs ≤14.5%; P < .001). Patients whose RDW increased during hospitalization had higher mortality compared with those whose RDW did not change; for those with normal RDW, mortality increased from 6% to 24%, and for those with an elevated RDW at admission, mortality increased from 22% to 40%. Conclusions and Relevance: Elevated RDW at the time of hospital admission and an increase in RDW during hospitalization were associated with increased mortality risk for patients with COVID-19 who received treatment at 4 hospitals in a large academic medical center network.

BACKGROUND: The development and widespread use of an effective SARS-CoV-2 vaccine could prevent substantial morbidity and mortality associated with COVID-19 and mitigate the secondary effects associated with non-pharmaceutical interventions. METHODS: We used an age-structured, expanded SEIR model with social contact matrices to assess age-specific vaccine allocation strategies in India. We used state-specific age structures and disease transmission coefficients estimated from confirmed incident cases of COVID-19 between 1 July and 31 August 2020. Simulations were used to investigate the relative reduction in mortality and morbidity of vaccine allocation strategies based on prioritizing different age groups, and the interactions of these strategies with concurrent non-pharmaceutical interventions. Given the uncertainty associated with COVID-19 vaccine development, we varied vaccine characteristics in the modelling simulations. RESULTS: Prioritizing COVID-19 vaccine allocation for older populations (i.e., >60 years) led to the greatest relative reduction in deaths, regardless of vaccine efficacy, control measures, rollout speed, or immunity dynamics. Preferential vaccination of this group often produced relatively higher total symptomatic infections and more pronounced estimates of peak incidence than other assessed strategies. Vaccine efficacy, immunity type, target coverage, and rollout speed significantly influenced overall strategy effectiveness, with the time taken to reach target coverage significantly affecting the relative mortality benefit comparative to no vaccination. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings support global recommendations to prioritize COVID-19 vaccine allocation for older age groups. Relative differences between allocation strategies were reduced as the speed of vaccine rollout was increased. Optimal vaccine allocation strategies will depend on vaccine characteristics, strength of concurrent non-pharmaceutical interventions, and region-specific goals.

BACKGROUND: The function of the thymus in human adults is unclear, and routine removal of the thymus is performed in a variety of surgical procedures. We hypothesized that the adult thymus is needed to sustain immune competence and overall health. METHODS: We evaluated the risk of death, cancer, and autoimmune disease among adult patients who had undergone thymectomy as compared with demographically matched controls who had undergone similar cardiothoracic surgery without thymectomy. T-cell production and plasma cytokine levels were also compared in a subgroup of patients. RESULTS: After exclusions, 1420 patients who had undergone thymectomy and 6021 controls were included in the study; 1146 of the patients who had undergone thymectomy had a matched control and were included in the primary cohort. At 5 years after surgery, all-cause mortality was higher in the thymectomy group than in the control group (8.1% vs. 2.8%; relative risk, 2.9; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.7 to 4.8), as was the risk of cancer (7.4% vs. 3.7%; relative risk, 2.0; 95% CI, 1.3 to 3.2). Although the risk of autoimmune disease did not differ substantially between the groups in the overall primary cohort (relative risk, 1.1; 95% CI, 0.8 to 1.4), a difference was found when patients with preoperative infection, cancer, or autoimmune disease were excluded from the analysis (12.3% vs. 7.9%; relative risk, 1.5; 95% CI, 1.02 to 2.2). In an analysis involving all patients with more than 5 years of follow-up (with or without a matched control), all-cause mortality was higher in the thymectomy group than in the general U.S. population (9.0% vs. 5.2%), as was mortality due to cancer (2.3% vs. 1.5%). In the subgroup of patients in whom T-cell production and plasma cytokine levels were measured (22 in the thymectomy group and 19 in the control group; mean follow-up, 14.2 postoperative years), those who had undergone thymectomy had less new production of CD4+ and CD8+ lymphocytes than controls (mean CD4+ signal joint T-cell receptor excision circle [sjTREC] count, 1451 vs. 526 per microgram of DNA [P = 0.009]; mean CD8+ sjTREC count, 1466 vs. 447 per microgram of DNA [P<0.001]) and higher levels of proinflammatory cytokines in the blood. CONCLUSIONS: In this study, all-cause mortality and the risk of cancer were higher among patients who had undergone thymectomy than among controls. Thymectomy also appeared be associated with an increased risk of autoimmune disease when patients with preoperative infection, cancer, or autoimmune disease were excluded from the analysis. (Funded by the Tracey and Craig A. Huff Harvard Stem Cell Institute Research Support Fund and others.).

Abstract Rationale Asthma is characterized by disease within the small airways. Several studies have suggested that forced oscillation technique–derived resistance at 5 Hz (R5) − resistance at 20 Hz (R20) is a measure of small airway disease; however, there has been limited validation of this measurement to date. Objectives To validate the use of forced oscillation R5 − R20 as a measure of small airway narrowing in asthma, and to investigate the role that small airway narrowing plays in asthma. Methods Patient-based complete conducting airway models were generated from computed tomography scans to simulate the impact of different degrees of airway narrowing at different levels of the airway tree on forced oscillation R5 − R20 (n = 31). The computational models were coupled with regression models in an asthmatic cohort (n = 177) to simulate the impact of small airway narrowing on asthma control and quality of life. The computational models were used to predict the impact on small airway narrowing of type-2 targeting biologics using pooled data from two similarly design randomized, placebo-controlled biologic trials (n = 137). Measurements and Main Results Simulations demonstrated that narrowing of the small airways had a greater impact on R5 − R20 than narrowing of the larger airways and was associated (above a threshold of approximately 40% narrowing) with marked deterioration in both asthma control and asthma quality of life, above the minimal clinical important difference. The observed treatment effect on R5 − R20 in the pooled trials equated to a predicted small airway narrowing reversal of approximately 40%. Conclusions We have demonstrated, using computational modeling, that forced oscillation R5 − R20 is a direct measure of anatomical narrowing in the small airways and that small airway narrowing has a marked impact on both asthma control and quality of life and may be modified by biologics.

Abstract Sudden cardiac death, arising from abnormal electrical conduction, occurs frequently in patients with coronary heart disease. Myocardial ischemia simultaneously induces arrhythmia and massive myocardial leukocyte changes. In this study, we optimized a mouse model in which hypokalemia combined with myocardial infarction triggered spontaneous ventricular tachycardia in ambulatory mice, and we showed that major leukocyte subsets have opposing effects on cardiac conduction. Neutrophils increased ventricular tachycardia via lipocalin-2 in mice, whereas neutrophilia associated with ventricular tachycardia in patients. In contrast, macrophages protected against arrhythmia. Depleting recruited macrophages in Ccr2 −/− mice or all macrophage subsets with Csf1 receptor inhibition increased both ventricular tachycardia and fibrillation. Higher arrhythmia burden and mortality in Cd36 −/− and Mertk −/− mice, viewed together with reduced mitochondrial integrity and accelerated cardiomyocyte death in the absence of macrophages, indicated that receptor-mediated phagocytosis protects against lethal electrical storm. Thus, modulation of leukocyte function provides a potential therapeutic pathway for reducing the risk of sudden cardiac death.