Colin O. Wu

BACKGROUND: In patients with acquired aplastic anemia, destruction of hematopoietic cells by the immune system leads to pancytopenia. Patients have a response to immunosuppressive therapy, but myelodysplastic syndromes and acute myeloid leukemia develop in about 15% of the patients, usually many months to years after the diagnosis of aplastic anemia. METHODS: We performed next-generation sequencing and array-based karyotyping using 668 blood samples obtained from 439 patients with aplastic anemia. We analyzed serial samples obtained from 82 patients. RESULTS: Somatic mutations in myeloid cancer candidate genes were present in one third of the patients, in a limited number of genes and at low initial variant allele frequency. Clonal hematopoiesis was detected in 47% of the patients, most frequently as acquired mutations. The prevalence of the mutations increased with age, and mutations had an age-related signature. DNMT3A-mutated and ASXL1-mutated clones tended to increase in size over time; the size of BCOR- and BCORL1-mutated and PIGA-mutated clones decreased or remained stable. Mutations in PIGA and BCOR and BCORL1 correlated with a better response to immunosuppressive therapy and longer and a higher rate of overall and progression-free survival; mutations in a subgroup of genes that included DNMT3A and ASXL1 were associated with worse outcomes. However, clonal dynamics were highly variable and might not necessarily have predicted the response to therapy and long-term survival among individual patients. CONCLUSIONS: Clonal hematopoiesis was prevalent in aplastic anemia. Some mutations were related to clinical outcomes. A highly biased set of mutations is evidence of Darwinian selection in the failed bone marrow environment. The pattern of somatic clones in individual patients over time was variable and frequently unpredictable. (Funded by Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research and others.).

RATIONALE: Machine learning may be useful to characterize cardiovascular risk, predict outcomes, and identify biomarkers in population studies. OBJECTIVE: To test the ability of random survival forests, a machine learning technique, to predict 6 cardiovascular outcomes in comparison to standard cardiovascular risk scores. METHODS AND RESULTS: We included participants from the MESA (Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis). Baseline measurements were used to predict cardiovascular outcomes over 12 years of follow-up. MESA was designed to study progression of subclinical disease to cardiovascular events where participants were initially free of cardiovascular disease. All 6814 participants from MESA, aged 45 to 84 years, from 4 ethnicities, and 6 centers across the United States were included. Seven-hundred thirty-five variables from imaging and noninvasive tests, questionnaires, and biomarker panels were obtained. We used the random survival forests technique to identify the top-20 predictors of each outcome. Imaging, electrocardiography, and serum biomarkers featured heavily on the top-20 lists as opposed to traditional cardiovascular risk factors. Age was the most important predictor for all-cause mortality. Fasting glucose levels and carotid ultrasonography measures were important predictors of stroke. Coronary Artery Calcium score was the most important predictor of coronary heart disease and all atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease combined outcomes. Left ventricular structure and function and cardiac troponin-T were among the top predictors for incident heart failure. Creatinine, age, and ankle-brachial index were among the top predictors of atrial fibrillation. TNF-α (tissue necrosis factor-α) and IL (interleukin)-2 soluble receptors and NT-proBNP (N-Terminal Pro-B-Type Natriuretic Peptide) levels were important across all outcomes. The random survival forests technique performed better than established risk scores with increased prediction accuracy (decreased Brier score by 10%-25%). CONCLUSIONS: Machine learning in conjunction with deep phenotyping improves prediction accuracy in cardiovascular event prediction in an initially asymptomatic population. These methods may lead to greater insights on subclinical disease markers without apriori assumptions of causality. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT00005487.

BACKGROUND: Acquired aplastic anemia results from immune-mediated destruction of bone marrow. Immunosuppressive therapies are effective, but reduced numbers of residual stem cells may limit their efficacy. In patients with aplastic anemia that was refractory to immunosuppression, eltrombopag, a synthetic thrombopoietin-receptor agonist, led to clinically significant increases in blood counts in almost half the patients. We combined standard immunosuppressive therapy with eltrombopag in previously untreated patients with severe aplastic anemia. METHODS: We enrolled 92 consecutive patients in a prospective phase 1-2 study of immunosuppressive therapy plus eltrombopag. The three consecutively enrolled cohorts differed with regard to the timing of initiation and the duration of the eltrombopag regimen (cohort 1 received eltrombopag from day 14 to 6 months, cohort 2 from day 14 to 3 months, and cohort 3 from day 1 to 6 months). The cohorts were analyzed separately. The primary outcome was complete hematologic response at 6 months. Secondary end points included overall response, survival, relapse, and clonal evolution to myeloid cancer. RESULTS: The rate of complete response at 6 months was 33% in cohort 1, 26% in cohort 2, and 58% in cohort 3. The overall response rates at 6 months were 80%, 87%, and 94%, respectively. The complete and overall response rates in the combined cohorts were higher than in our historical cohort, in which the rate of complete response was 10% and the overall response rate was 66%. At a median follow-up of 2 years, the survival rate was 97%; one patient died during the study from a nonhematologic cause. Marked increases in bone marrow cellularity, CD34+ cell number, and frequency of early hematopoietic progenitors were noted. Rates of relapse and clonal evolution were similar to our historical experience. Severe rashes occurred in two patients, resulting in the early discontinuation of eltrombopag. CONCLUSIONS: The addition of eltrombopag to immunosuppressive therapy was associated with markedly higher rates of hematologic response among patients with severe aplastic anemia than in a historical cohort. (Funded by the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute; ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT01623167 .).

BACKGROUND: Severe aplastic anemia, which is characterized by immune-mediated bone marrow hypoplasia and pancytopenia, can be treated effectively with immunosuppressive therapy or allogeneic transplantation. One third of patients have disease that is refractory to immunosuppression, with persistent, severe cytopenia and a profound deficit in hematopoietic stem cells and progenitor cells. Thrombopoietin may increase the number of hematopoietic stem cells and progenitor cells. METHODS: We conducted a phase 2 study involving patients with aplastic anemia that was refractory to immunosuppression to determine whether the oral thrombopoietin mimetic eltrombopag (Promacta) can improve blood counts. Twenty-five patients received eltrombopag at a dose of 50 mg, which could be increased, as needed, to a maximum dose of 150 mg daily, for a total of 12 weeks. Primary end points were clinically significant changes in blood counts or transfusion independence. Patients with a response continued to receive eltrombopag. RESULTS: Eleven of 25 patients (44%) had a hematologic response in at least one lineage at 12 weeks, with minimal toxic effects. Nine patients no longer needed platelet transfusions (median increase in platelet count, 44,000 per cubic millimeter). Six patients had improved hemoglobin levels (median increase, 4.4 g per deciliter); 3 of them were previously dependent on red-cell transfusions and no longer needed transfusions. Nine patients had increased neutrophil counts (median increase, 1350 per cubic millimeter). Serial bone marrow biopsies showed normalization of trilineage hematopoiesis in patients who had a response, without increased fibrosis. Monitoring of immune function revealed no consistent changes. CONCLUSIONS: Treatment with eltrombopag was associated with multilineage clinical responses in some patients with refractory severe aplastic anemia. (Funded by the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute; ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT00922883.).

BACKGROUND: In severe acquired aplastic anemia, hematopoietic failure is the result of immune-mediated destruction of bone marrow stem and progenitor cells. Immunosuppressive therapy with antithymocyte globulin (ATG) plus cyclosporine is an effective alternative to stem-cell transplantation and improves blood counts and survival. Although horse ATG is the standard therapy, rabbit ATG is more potent in depleting peripheral-blood lymphocytes and is preferred in other clinical circumstances. METHODS: From December 2005 through July 2010, we performed a randomized trial comparing these two ATG formulations in conventional regimens. Patients were treated at a single facility. The primary outcome was hematologic response at 6 months, as determined by blood counts. The study was designed to enroll 60 patients each for the rabbit-ATG and horse-ATG groups and was powered to detect a difference of 25 percentage points in the response rate. RESULTS: A large, unexpected difference was observed in the rate of hematologic response at 6 months in favor of horse ATG (68%; 95% confidence interval [CI], 56 to 80) as compared with rabbit ATG (37%; 95% CI, 24 to 49; P<0.001). Overall survival at 3 years also differed, with a survival rate of 96% (95% CI, 90 to 100) in the horse-ATG group as compared with 76% (95% CI, 61 to 95) in the rabbit-ATG group (P=0.04) when data were censored at the time of stem-cell transplantation, and 94% (95% CI, 88 to 100) as compared with 70% (95% CI, 56 to 86; P=0.008) in the respective groups when stem-cell-transplantation events were not censored. CONCLUSIONS: In a randomized study, rabbit ATG was inferior to horse ATG as a first treatment for severe aplastic anemia, as indicated by hematologic response and survival. (Funded by the Intramural Research Program of the National Institutes of Health; ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT00260689.).