Edwin Rodríguez-Horta

Genome-wide epistasis analysis is a powerful tool to infer gene interactions, which can guide drug and vaccine development and lead to deeper understanding of microbial pathogenesis. We have considered all complete severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) genomes deposited in the Global Initiative on Sharing All Influenza Data (GISAID) repository until four different cutoff dates, and used direct coupling analysis together with an assumption of quasi-linkage equilibrium to infer epistatic contributions to fitness from polymorphic loci. We find eight interactions, of which three are between pairs where one locus lies in gene ORF3a, both loci holding nonsynonymous mutations. We also find interactions between two loci in gene nsp13, both holding nonsynonymous mutations, and four interactions involving one locus holding a synonymous mutation. Altogether, we infer interactions between loci in viral genes ORF3a and nsp2, nsp12, and nsp6, between ORF8 and nsp4, and between loci in genes nsp2, nsp13, and nsp14. The paper opens the prospect to use prominent epistatically linked pairs as a starting point to search for combinatorial weaknesses of recombinant viral pathogens.

Global coevolutionary models of protein families have become increasingly popular due to their capacity to predict residue–residue contacts from sequence information, but also to predict fitness effects of amino acid substitutions or to infer protein–protein interactions. The central idea in these models is to construct a probability distribution, a Potts model, that reproduces single and pairwise frequencies of amino acids found in natural sequences of the protein family. This approach treats sequences from the family as independent samples, completely ignoring phylogenetic relations between them. This simplification is known to lead to potentially biased estimates of the parameters of the model, decreasing their biological relevance. Current workarounds for this problem, such as reweighting sequences, are poorly understood and not principled. Here, we propose an inference scheme that takes the phylogeny of a protein family into account in order to correct biases in estimating the frequencies of amino acids. Using artificial data, we show that a Potts model inferred using these corrected frequencies performs better in predicting contacts and fitness effect of mutations. First, only partially successful tests on real protein data are presented, too.

Coevolution-based contact prediction, either directly by coevolutionary couplings resulting from global statistical sequence models or using structural supervision and deep learning, has found widespread application in protein-structure prediction from sequence. However, one of the basic assumptions in global statistical modeling is that sequences form an at least approximately independent sample of an unknown probability distribution, which is to be learned from data. In the case of protein families, this assumption is obviously violated by phylogenetic relations between protein sequences. It has turned out to be notoriously difficult to take phylogenetic correlations into account in coevolutionary model learning. Here, we propose a complementary approach: we develop strategies to randomize or resample sequence data, such that conservation patterns and phylogenetic relations are preserved, while intrinsic (i.e. structure- or function-based) coevolutionary couplings are removed. A comparison between the results of Direct Coupling Analysis applied to real and to resampled data shows that the largest coevolutionary couplings, i.e. those used for contact prediction, are only weakly influenced by phylogeny. However, the phylogeny-induced spurious couplings in the resampled data are compatible in size with the first false-positive contact predictions from real data. Dissecting functional from phylogeny-induced couplings might therefore extend accurate contact predictions to the range of intermediate-size couplings.

Abstract Coevolution-based contact prediction, either directly by coevolutionary couplings resulting from global statistical sequence models or using structural supervision and deep learning, has found widespread application in protein-structure prediction from sequence. However, one of the basic assumptions in global statistical modeling is that sequences form an at least approximately independent sample of an unknown probability distribution, which is to be learned from data. In the case of protein families, this assumption is obviously violated by phylogenetic relations between protein sequences. It has turned out to be notoriously difficult to take phylogenetic correlations into account in coevolutionary model learning. Here, we propose a complementary approach: we develop strategies to randomize or resample sequence data, such that conservation patterns and phylogenetic relations are preserved, while intrinsic (i.e. structure- or function-based) coevolutionary couplings are removed. A comparison between the results of Direct Coupling Analysis applied to real and to resampled data shows that the largest coevolutionary couplings, i.e. those used for contact prediction, are only weakly influenced by phylogeny. However, the phylogeny-induced spurious couplings in the resampled data are compatible in size with the first false-positive contact predictions from real data. Dissecting functional from phylogeny-induced couplings might therefore extend accurate contact predictions to the range of intermediate-size couplings. The code is available at https://github.com/ed-rodh/Null_models_I_and_II . Author summary Many homologous protein families contain thousands of highly diverged amino-acid sequences, which fold into close-to-identical three-dimensional structures and fulfill almost identical biological tasks. Global coevolutionary models, like those inferred by the Direct Coupling Analysis (DCA), assume that families can be considered as samples of some unknown statistical model, and that the parameters of these models represent evolutionary constraints acting on protein sequences. To learn these models from data, DCA and related approaches have to also assume that the distinct sequences in a protein family are close to independent, while in reality they are characterized by involved hierarchical phylogenetic relationships. Here we propose Null models for sequence alignments, which maintain patterns of amino-acid conservation and phylogeny contained in the data, but destroy any coevolutionary couplings, frequently used in protein structure prediction. We find that phylogeny actually induces spurious non-zero couplings. These are, however, significantly smaller that the largest couplings derived from natural sequences, and therefore have only little influence on the first predicted contacts. However, in the range of intermediate couplings, they may lead to statistically significant effects. Dissecting phylogenetic from functional couplings might therefore extend the range of accurately predicted structural contacts down to smaller coupling strengths than those currently used.

Abstract The ancestral sequence reconstruction problem is the inference, back in time, of the properties of common sequence ancestors from the measured properties of contemporary populations. Standard algorithms for this problem assume independent (factorized) evolution of the characters of the sequences, which is generally wrong (e.g. proteins and genome sequences). In this work, we have studied this problem for sequences described by global co-evolutionary models, which reproduce the global pattern of cooperative interactions between the elements that compose it. For this, we first modeled the temporal evolution of correlated real valued characters by a multivariate Ornstein–Uhlenbeck process on a finite tree. This represents sequences as Gaussian vectors evolving in a quadratic potential, who describe the selection forces acting on the evolving entities. Under a Bayesian framework, we developed a reconstruction algorithm for these sequences and obtained an analytical expression to quantify the quality of our estimation. We extend this formalism to discrete valued sequences by applying our method to a Potts model. We showed that for both continuous and discrete configurations, there is a wide range of parameters where, to properly reconstruct the ancestral sequences, intra-species correlations must be taken into account. We also demonstrated that, for sequences with discrete elements, our reconstruction algorithm outperforms traditional schemes based on independent site approximations.