Joanne Ellison

Forecasting has always been at the forefront of decision making and planning. The uncertainty that surrounds the future is both exciting and challenging, with individuals and organisations seeking to minimise risks and maximise utilities. The large number of forecasting applications calls for a diverse set of forecasting methods to tackle real-life challenges. This article provides a non-systematic review of the theory and the practice of forecasting. We provide an overview of a wide range of theoretical, state-of-the-art models, methods, principles, and approaches to prepare, produce, organise, and evaluate forecasts. We then demonstrate how such theoretical concepts are applied in a variety of real-life contexts. We do not claim that this review is an exhaustive list of methods and applications. However, we wish that our encyclopedic presentation will offer a point of reference for the rich work that has been undertaken over the last decades, with some key insights for the future of forecasting theory and practice. Given its encyclopedic nature, the intended mode of reading is non-linear. We offer cross-references to allow the readers to navigate through the various topics. We complement the theoretical concepts and applications covered by large lists of free or open-source software implementations and publicly-available databases. © 2021 The Author(s)

OBJECTIVE: To assess the safety and efficacy of enoxaparin use for thromboprophylaxis or treatment of venous thromboembolism during pregnancy. DESIGN: Retrospective review of casenotes of women who received enoxaparin during pregnancy. SETTING: Obstetric Medicine Unit at Glasgow Royal Maternity Hospital. SAMPLE: Data were obtained on 57 pregnancies in 50 women over six years. METHODS: Information was obtained from case records in relation to outcome measures, the presence of underlying thrombophilia and indication for anticoagulation. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Incidences of venous thromboembolism, haemorrhage, thrombocytopenia, peak plasma anti-factor Xa levels and symptomatic osteoporosis. RESULTS: There were no thromboembolic events in the thromboprophylaxis group. There were no incidences of heparin-induced thrombocytopenia. Twenty-two women had spinal or epidural anaesthesia and no complications were encountered. There was one instance of antepartum haemorrhage following attempted amniotomy in a woman with previously unknown vasa praevia. Two women sustained postpartum haemorrhage, both secondary to vaginal lacerations, resulting in blood loss > 1,000 mL. Blood loss following caesarean section was not excessive. No instances of vertebral or hip fracture were encountered. The median peak plasma anti-factor Xa level on a dose of 40 mg once daily was 0.235 U/mL; peak plasma anti-factor Xa levels were not affected by gestational age. CONCLUSIONS: The use of enoxaparin in pregnancy is associated with a low incidence of complications and a dose of 40 mg once daily throughout pregnancy provides satisfactory anti-factor Xa levels and appears effective in preventing venous thromboembolism.

Over 50 unselected women with maternal venous thromboembolism were screened for the prothrombin 20210 G-->A and MTHFR C677T mutations, in addition to screening for other thrombophilias. The prevalence of thrombophilia in these women was compared with its prevalence in the general population in our area. The prothrombin (OR 4.4; 95% CI 1.2-16) and factor V Leiden (OR 4.5; 95% CI 2.1-14.5) mutations were more common in our patients, compared with the general population, whereas women homozygous for the C677T mutation in the methylene tetrahydrofolate reductase gene (OR 0.45; 95% CI 0.13-1.58) were not. It is recommended that women with a personal or strong family history of venous thromboembolism should be screened for the prothrombin mutation either before or early in pregnancy, in addition to screening for other thrombophilias. Screening for the MTHFR mutation does not appear to identify women at increased risk of maternal venous thrombosis.