Claudio Alberto Dávila-Cervantes

BACKGROUND: High prevalence of diabetes has been reported in the Americas, but no comprehensive analysis of diabetes burden and related factors for the region is available. We aimed to describe the burden of type 1 and type 2 diabetes and that of hyperglycaemia in the Americas from 1990 to 2019. METHODS: We used estimates from GBD 2019 to evaluate the burden of diabetes in adults aged 20 years or older and high fasting plasma glucose in adults aged 25 years or older in the 39 countries and territories of the six regions in the Americas from 1990 to 2019. The main source to estimate the mortality attributable to diabetes and to chronic kidney disease due to diabetes was vital registration. Mortality due to overall diabetes (ie, diabetes and diabetes due to chronic kidney disease) was estimated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model. Years of life lost (YLLs) were calculated as the number of deaths multiplied by standard life expectancy at the age that the death occurred, years lived with disability (YLDs) were estimated based on the prevalence and severity of complications of diabetes. Disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) were estimated as a sum of YLDs and YLLs. We assessed the association of diabetes burden with the level of development of a country (according to the Socio-demographic Index), health-care access and quality (estimated with the Healthcare Access and Quality Index), and diabetes prevalence. We also calculated the population attributable fraction (PAF) of diabetes burden due to each of its risk factors. We report the 95% uncertainty intervals for all estimates. FINDINGS: In 2019, an estimated total of 409 000 (95% uncertainty interval 373 000-443 000) adults aged 20 years or older in the Americas died from diabetes, which represented 5·9% of all deaths. Diabetes was responsible for 2266 (1930-2649) crude DALYs per 100 000 adults in the Americas, and high fasting plasma glucose for 4401 DALYs (3685-5265) per 100 000 adults, with large variation across regions. DALYs were mostly due to type 2 diabetes and distribution was heterogeneous, being highest in central Latin America and the Caribbean and lowest in high-income North America and southern Latin America. Between 1990 and 2019, age-standardised DALYs due to type 2 diabetes increased 27·4% (22·0-32·5). This increase was particularly high in Andean Latin America and high-income North America. Burden for both type 1 and type 2 diabetes across countries increased with higher diabetes prevalence and decreased with greater Socio-demographic and Healthcare Access and Quality Indices. Main risk factors for the burden were high BMI, with a PAF of 63·2% and dietary risks, with a PAF of 27·5%. The fraction of burden due to disability has increased since 1990 and now represents nearly half of the overall burden in 2019. INTERPRETATION: The burden of diabetes in the Americas is large, increasing, heterogeneous, and expanding. To confront the rising burden, population-based interventions aimed to reduce type 2 diabetes risk and strengthening health systems to provide effective and cost-efficient care for those affected are mandatory. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

BACKGROUND: Deaths from suicide are a tragic yet preventable cause of mortality. Quantifying the burden of suicide to understand its geographical distribution, temporal trends, and variation by age and sex is an essential step in suicide prevention. We aimed to present a comprehensive set of global, regional, and national estimates of suicide burden. METHODS: We produced estimates of the number of deaths and age-standardised mortality rates of suicide globally, regionally, and for 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2021, and disaggregated these results by age and sex. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 estimates of deaths attributable to suicide were broken down into two comprehensive categories: those by firearms and those by other specified means. For this analysis, we also produced estimates of mean age at the time of death from suicide, incidence of suicide attempts compared with deaths, and age-standardised rates of suicide by firearm. We acquired data from vital registration, verbal autopsy, and mortality surveillance that included 23 782 study-location-years of data from GBD 2021. Point estimates were calculated from the average of 1000 randomly selected possible values of deaths from suicide by age, sex, and geographical location. 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) were derived from the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles from a 1000-draw distribution. FINDINGS: Globally, 746 000 deaths (95% UI 692 000-800 000) from suicide occurred in 2021, including 519 000 deaths (485 000-556 000) among males and 227 000 (200 000-255 000) among females. The age-standardised mortality rate has declined over time, from 14·9 deaths (12·8-15·7) per 100 000 population in 1990 to 9·0 (8·3-9·6) per 100 000 in 2021. Regionally, mortality rates due to suicide were highest in eastern Europe (19·2 [17·5-20·8] per 100 000), southern sub-Saharan Africa (16·1 [14·0-18·3] per 100 000), and central sub-Saharan Africa (14·4 [11·0-19·1] per 100 000). The mean age at which individuals died from suicide progressively increased during the study period. For males, the mean age at death by suicide in 1990 was 43·0 years (38·0-45·8), increasing to 47·0 years (43·5-50·6) in 2021. For females, it was 41·9 years (30·9-46·7) in 1990 and 46·9 years (41·2-52·8) in 2021. The incidence of suicide attempts requiring medical care was consistently higher at the regional level for females than for males. The number of deaths by suicide using firearms was higher for males than for females, and substantially varied by country and region. The countries with the highest age-standardised rate of suicides attributable to firearms in 2021 were the USA, Uruguay, and Venezuela. INTERPRETATION: Deaths from suicide remain variable by age and sex and across geographical locations, although population mortality rates have continued to improve globally since the 1990s. This study presents, for the first time in GBD, a quantification of the mean age at the time of suicide death, alongside comprehensive estimates of the burden of suicide throughout the world. These analyses will help guide future approaches to reduce suicide mortality that consider a public health framework for prevention. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

BACKGROUND: More than 3 billion people do not have access to clean energy and primarily use solid fuels to cook. Use of solid fuels generates household air pollution, which was associated with more than 2 million deaths in 2019. Although local patterns in cooking vary systematically, subnational trends in use of solid fuels have yet to be comprehensively analysed. We estimated the prevalence of solid-fuel use with high spatial resolution to explore subnational inequalities, assess local progress, and assess the effects on health in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) without universal access to clean fuels. METHODS: We did a geospatial modelling study to map the prevalence of solid-fuel use for cooking at a 5 km × 5 km resolution in 98 LMICs based on 2·1 million household observations of the primary cooking fuel used from 663 population-based household surveys over the years 2000 to 2018. We use observed temporal patterns to forecast household air pollution in 2030 and to assess the probability of attaining the Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) target indicator for clean cooking. We aligned our estimates of household air pollution to geospatial estimates of ambient air pollution to establish the risk transition occurring in LMICs. Finally, we quantified the effect of residual primary solid-fuel use for cooking on child health by doing a counterfactual risk assessment to estimate the proportion of deaths from lower respiratory tract infections in children younger than 5 years that could be associated with household air pollution. FINDINGS: Although primary reliance on solid-fuel use for cooking has declined globally, it remains widespread. 593 million people live in districts where the prevalence of solid-fuel use for cooking exceeds 95%. 66% of people in LMICs live in districts that are not on track to meet the SDG target for universal access to clean energy by 2030. Household air pollution continues to be a major contributor to particulate exposure in LMICs, and rising ambient air pollution is undermining potential gains from reductions in the prevalence of solid-fuel use for cooking in many countries. We estimated that, in 2018, 205 000 (95% uncertainty interval 147 000-257 000) children younger than 5 years died from lower respiratory tract infections that could be attributed to household air pollution. INTERPRETATION: Efforts to accelerate the adoption of clean cooking fuels need to be substantially increased and recalibrated to account for subnational inequalities, because there are substantial opportunities to improve air quality and avert child mortality associated with household air pollution. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

OBJECTIVE: To describe the evolution of the burden of chronic kidney disease (CKD) in Mexico by states, sex and subtypes from 1990 to 2017. DESIGN: Secondary data analysis based on the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) 2017. PARTICIPANTS: Mexico and its 32 states. Data were publicly available and de-identified and individuals were not involved. METHODS: We analysed age-standardised mortality rates, years of life lost (YLL) due to premature death, years lived with disability (YLD) and disability-adjusted life years (DALY), as well as the percentage of change of these indicators between 1990 and 2017. RESULTS: From 1990 to 2017, the number of deaths, YLL, YLD and DALY due to CKD increased from 12 395 to 65 033, from 330 717 to 1 544 212, from 86 416 to 210 924 and from 417 133 to 1 755 136, respectively. Age-standardised rates went from 28.7 to 58.1 for deaths (% of change 102.3), from 601.2 to 1296.7 for YLL (% of change 115.7), from 158.3 to 175.4 for YLD (% of change 10.9) and from 759.4 to 1472.2 for DALY (% of change 93.8). The highest burden of CKD was for Puebla and the lowest for Sinaloa. It was also greater for men than women. By subtypes of CKD, diabetes and hypertension were the causes that contributed most to the loss of years of healthy life in the Mexican population. CONCLUSIONS: Mexico has experienced exponential and unprecedented growth in the burden of CKD with significant differences by states, sex and subtypes. Data from the GBD are key inputs to guide decision-making and focus efforts towards the reduction of inequities in CKD. These results should be considered a valuable resource that can help guide the epidemiological monitoring of this disease and prioritise the most appropriate health interventions.

INTRODUCTION: Attempted suicide is the main risk factor for completed suicides. OBJECTIVE: To analyze the prevalen ce of attempted suicide in junior high school and high school students in Mexico City, and its asso ciated factors. SUBJECTS AND METHOD: Observational, cross-sectional and descriptive study conducted with data from the Mexico National Survey on Drug Use Among Students (ENCODE) 2012. The validated survey was anonymous, structured and self-applied, and contains seven sections: Sociode mographic; Tobacco, alcohol and drug use; Problems related to drug use; Antisocial behavior; Social sphere; Interpersonal sphere and Personal sphere. Family atmosphere, communication with parents, and self-esteem indexes were created using principal component analysis. A binomial logistic regres sion model was adjusted, and the odds ratio (OR) were analyzed. RESULTS: The estimated prevalence of attempted suicide was 6.8%. The factors that increased the attempted suicide possibility were: being a woman (OR 3.1), be under 16 years old (OR 1.6), living in an unfavorable family atmosphere (OR 1.5) or having a poor communication with parents (OR 1.8), having low self-esteem (OR 1.9), behavioral or learning problems (OR 1.4) or suffering a mental illness (OR 3.6); having been forced into sexual contact (OR 2.6); or drugs use, smoking or alcohol consumption (OR 1.7, 1.2 and 1.7). CONCLUSIONS: The attempted suicide prevention should be focused on women younger than 16 years, with any psychiatric disorder, behavioral problem or low self-esteem, who live in an unfavorable family atmosphere, with risky behavior such as smoking, or alcohol or drugs consumption, or who have been forced into sexual contact.