Laura Antolini

Importance: Tracheal intubation is one of the most commonly performed and high-risk interventions in critically ill patients. Limited information is available on adverse peri-intubation events. Objective: To evaluate the incidence and nature of adverse peri-intubation events and to assess current practice of intubation in critically ill patients. Design, Setting, and Participants: The International Observational Study to Understand the Impact and Best Practices of Airway Management in Critically Ill Patients (INTUBE) study was an international, multicenter, prospective cohort study involving consecutive critically ill patients undergoing tracheal intubation in the intensive care units (ICUs), emergency departments, and wards, from October 1, 2018, to July 31, 2019 (August 28, 2019, was the final follow-up) in a convenience sample of 197 sites from 29 countries across 5 continents. Exposures: Tracheal intubation. Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary outcome was the incidence of major adverse peri-intubation events defined as at least 1 of the following events occurring within 30 minutes from the start of the intubation procedure: cardiovascular instability (either: systolic pressure <65 mm Hg at least once, <90 mm Hg for >30 minutes, new or increase need of vasopressors or fluid bolus >15 mL/kg), severe hypoxemia (peripheral oxygen saturation <80%) or cardiac arrest. The secondary outcomes included intensive care unit mortality. Results: Of 3659 patients screened, 2964 (median age, 63 years; interquartile range [IQR], 49-74 years; 62.6% men) from 197 sites across 5 continents were included. The main reason for intubation was respiratory failure in 52.3% of patients, followed by neurological impairment in 30.5%, and cardiovascular instability in 9.4%. Primary outcome data were available for all patients. Among the study patients, 45.2% experienced at least 1 major adverse peri-intubation event. The predominant event was cardiovascular instability, observed in 42.6% of all patients undergoing emergency intubation, followed by severe hypoxemia (9.3%) and cardiac arrest (3.1%). Overall ICU mortality was 32.8%. Conclusions and Relevance: In this observational study of intubation practices in critically ill patients from a convenience sample of 197 sites across 29 countries, major adverse peri-intubation events-in particular cardiovascular instability-were observed frequently.

BACKGROUND: Imatinib slows development of chronic myeloid leukemia (CML). However, available information on morbidity and mortality is largely based on sponsored trials, whereas independent long-term field studies are lacking. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Consecutive CML patients who started imatinib treatment before 2005 and who were in complete cytogenetic remission (CCyR) after 2 years (± 3 months) were eligible for enrollment in the independent multicenter Imatinib Long-Term (Side) Effects (ILTE) study. Incidence of the first serious and nonserious adverse events and loss of CCyR were estimated according to the Kaplan-Meier method and compared with the standard log-rank test. Attainment of negative Philadelphia chromosome hematopoiesis was assessed with cytogenetics and quantitative polymerase chain reaction. Cumulative incidence of death related or unrelated to CML progression was estimated, accounting for competing risks, according to the Kalbleisch-Prentice method. Standardized incidence ratios were calculated based on population rates specific for sex and age classes. Confidence intervals were calculated by the exact method based on the χ(2) distribution. All statistical tests were two-sided. RESULTS: A total of 832 patients who were treated for a median of 5.8 years were enrolled. There were 139 recorded serious adverse events, of which 19.4% were imatinib-related. A total of 830 nonserious adverse events were observed in 53% of patients; 560 (68%) were imatinib-related. The most frequent were muscle cramps, asthenia, edema, skin fragility, diarrhea, tendon, or ligament lesions. Nineteen patients (2.3%) discontinued imatinib because of drug-related toxic effects. Forty-five patients lost CCyR, at a rate of 1.4 per 100 person-years. Durable (>1 year) negative Philadelphia chromosome hematopoiesis was attained by 179 patients. Twenty deaths were observed, with a 4.8% mortality incidence rate (standardized incidence ratio = 0.7; 95% confidence interval = 0.40 to 1.10, P = .08), with only six (30%) associated with CML progression. CONCLUSIONS: In this study, CML-related deaths were uncommon in CML patients who were in CCyR 2 years after starting imatinib, and survival was not statistically significantly different from that of the general population.

To derive models suitable for outcome prediction, a crucial aspect is the availability of appropriate measures of predictive accuracy, which have to be usable for a general class of models. The Harrell's C discrimination index is an extension of the area under the ROC curve to the case of censored survival data, which owns a straightforward interpretability. For a model including covariates with time-dependent effects and/or time-dependent covariates, the original definition of C would require the prediction of individual failure times, which is not generally addressed in most clinical applications. Here we propose a time-dependent discrimination index Ctd where the whole predicted survival function is utilized as outcome prediction, and the ability to discriminate among subjects having different outcome is summarized over time. Ctd is based on a novel definition of concordance: a subject who developed the event should have a less predicted probability of surviving beyond his/her survival time than any subject who survived longer. The predicted survival function of a subject who developed the event is compared to: (1) that of subjects who developed the event before his/her survival time, and (2) that of subjects who developed the event, or were censored, after his/her survival time. Subjects who were censored are involved in comparisons with subjects who developed the event before their observed times. The index reduces to the previous C in the presence of separation between survival curves on the whole follow-up. A confidence interval for Ctd is derived using the jackknife method on correlated one-sample U-statistics.The proposed index is used to evaluate the discrimination ability of a model, including covariates having time-dependent effects, concerning time to relapse in breast cancer patients treated with adjuvant tamoxifen. The model was obtained from 596 patients entered prospectively at Istituto Nazionale per lo Studio e la Cura dei Tumori di Milano (INT). The model discrimination ability was validated on an independent testing data set of 175 patients provided by Centro Regionale Indicatori Biochimici di Tumore (CRIBT) in Venice.