M H Zweig

The clinical performance of a laboratory test can be described in terms of diagnostic accuracy, or the ability to correctly classify subjects into clinically relevant subgroups. Diagnostic accuracy refers to the quality of the information provided by the classification device and should be distinguished from the usefulness, or actual practical value, of the information. Receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) plots provide a pure index of accuracy by demonstrating the limits of a test's ability to discriminate between alternative states of health over the complete spectrum of operating conditions. Furthermore, ROC plots occupy a central or unifying position in the process of assessing and using diagnostic tools. Once the plot is generated, a user can readily go on to many other activities such as performing quantitative ROC analysis and comparisons of tests, using likelihood ratio to revise the probability of disease in individual subjects, selecting decision thresholds, using logistic-regression analysis, using discriminant-function analysis, or incorporating the tool into a clinical strategy by using decision analysis.

BACKGROUND: A troubling aspect of cancer screening is the potential for overdiagnosis, i.e., detection of disease that, in the absence of screening, would never have been diagnosed. Overdiagnosis is of particular concern in lung cancer screening because newer screening modalities can identify small nodules of unknown clinical significance. Previously published analyses of data from the Mayo Lung Project, a large randomized controlled trial conducted among 9211 male cigarette smokers in the 1970s and early 1980s indicated that overdiagnosis might exist in lung cancer screening. At the end of follow-up (July 1, 1983), no difference in lung cancer mortality was observed, but an excess of 46 cases in the intervention arm suggested overdiagnosis. Because that excess could instead have resulted from short follow-up time, we investigated this possibility by conducting long-term lung cancer incidence follow-up. METHODS: We investigated the lung cancer status through 1999 of the 7118 participants in the Mayo Lung Project who were alive and without diagnosed lung cancer in 1983 by use of medical records, surveys mailed to participants or next-of-kin, and state death certificates. RESULTS: Information was available for 6101 participants, including 811 with inconclusive lung cancer status. From November 1971 through December 31, 1999, 585 participants in the intervention arm and 500 in the usual-care arm were diagnosed with lung cancer. CONCLUSIONS: The persistence of excess cases in the intervention arm after 16 additional years of follow-up provides continued support for overdiagnosis in lung cancer screening.

In this article, Axelrod and several members of his laboratory reported their findings on circadian rhythms and the results of a series of experiments on the pineal glands of rats. The researchers found that the circadian rhythm was synchronized by exposure to light, but otherwise operated independent of it. However, exposure to constant light, or blinding the rats altogether, significantly altered their circadian rhythms.