Olaf Gefeller

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: The purpose of this study was to determine the incidence, recurrence, and long-term survival rates of ischemic stroke subtypes by a mechanism-based classification scheme (Trial of ORG 10172 in Acute Stroke Treatment, or TOAST). METHODS: We identified all 583 residents of the city of Erlangen, Bavaria, Germany, with a first ischemic stroke between 1994 and 1998. Multiple overlapping sources of information were used to ensure completeness of case ascertainment. The cause of ischemic stroke was classified according to the TOAST criteria. Patients were followed up at 3 months and 1 and 2 years after stroke onset. RESULTS: The age-standardized incidence rates for the European population (per 100 000) regarding ischemic stroke subtypes were as follows: cardioembolism, 30.2 (95% CI 25.6 to 35.7); small-artery occlusion, 25.8 (95% CI 21.5 to 30.9); and large-artery atherosclerosis, 15.3 (95% CI 12 to 19.3). When age-adjusted to the European population, the incidence rate for large-artery atherosclerosis was more than twice as high for men than for women (23.6/100 000 versus 9.2/100 000). Two years after onset, patients in the small-artery occlusion subgroup were 3 times more likely to be alive than those with cardioembolism. Ischemic stroke subtype according to the TOAST criteria was a significant predictor for long-term survival, whereas subtype was not a significant predictor of long-term recurrence up to 2 years, both before and after adjustment for age and sex. CONCLUSIONS: Epidemiological observational studies that possess wide access to appropriate diagnostic technologies and apply standardized etiologic classifications provide a much better understanding of underlying risk factors for initial stroke, recurrence, and mortality.

BACKGROUND: Erythropoietin (EPO) and its receptor play a major role in embryonic brain, are weakly expressed in normal postnatal/adult brain and up-regulated upon metabolic stress. EPO protects neurons from hypoxic/ ischemic injury. The objective of this trial is to study the safety and efficacy of recombinant human EPO (rhEPO) for treatment of ischemic stroke in man. MATERIALS AND METHODS: The trial consisted of a safety part and an efficacy part. In the safety study, 13 patients received rhEPO intravenously (3.3 X 10(4) IU/50 ml/30 min) once daily for the first 3 days after stroke. In the double-blind randomized proof-of-concept trial, 40 patients received either rhEPO or saline. Inclusion criteria were age <80 years, ischemic stroke within the middle cerebral artery territory confirmed by diffusion-weighted MRI, symptom onset <8 hr before drug administration, and deficits on stroke scales. The study endpoints were functional outcome at day 30 (Barthel Index, modified Rankin scale), NIH and Scandinavian stroke scales, evolution of infarct size (sequential MRI evaluation using diffusion-weighted [DWI] and fluid-attenuated inversion recovery sequences [FLAIR]) and the damage marker S100ss. RESULTS: No safety concerns were identified. Cerebrospinal fluid EPO increased to 60-100 times that of nontreated patients, proving that intravenously administered rhEPO reaches the brain. In the efficacy trial, patients received rhEPO within 5 hr of onset of symptoms (median, range 2:40-7:55). Admission neurologic scores and serum S100beta concentrations were strong predictors ofoutcome. Analysis of covariance controlled for these two variables indicated that rhEPO treatment was associated with an improvement in follow-up and outcome scales. A strong trend for reduction in infarct size in rhEPO patients as compared to controls was observed by MRI. CONCLUSION: Intravenous high-dose rhEPO is well tolerated in acute ischemic stroke and associated with an improvement in clinical outcome at 1 month. A larger scale clinical trial is warranted.

The sensitivity, specificity and likelihood ratios of binary diagnostic tests are often thought of as being independent of disease prevalence. Empirical studies, however, have frequently revealed substantial variation of these measures for the same diagnostic test in different populations. One reason for this discrepancy is related to the fact that only few diagnostic tests are inherently dichotomous. The majority of tests are based on categorization of individuals according to one or several underlying continuous traits. For these tests, the magnitude of diagnostic misclassification depends not only on the magnitude of the measurement or perception error of the underlying trait(s), but also on the distribution of the underlying trait(s) in the population relative to the diagnostic cutpoint. Since this distribution also determines prevalence of the disease in the population, diagnostic misclassification and disease prevalence are related for this type of test. We assess the variation of various measures of validity of diagnostic tests with disease prevalence for simple models of the distribution of the underlying trait(s) and the measurement or perception error. We illustrate that variation with disease prevalence is typically strong for sensitivity and specificity, and even more so for the likelihood ratios. Although positive and negative predictive values also strongly vary with disease prevalence, this variation is usually less pronounced than one would expect if sensitivity and specificity were independent of disease prevalence.

The analysis of 14-3-3 protein in cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) was shown to be highly sensitive and specific for the diagnosis of Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (CJD). However, the predictive value of this test in the clinical diagnosis of, and its relation to, sporadic, genetic, and iatrogenic CJD cases have yet to be established. CSF samples of suspect CJD cases seen in the prospective German surveillance study were tested for the presence of 14-3-3 protein by using a modified western blot (WB) technique. WB detected 14-3-3 protein in 95.4% of definite and 92.8% of probable cases. In two patients classified initially as not having CJD the test was positive, and both were later proved to have definite CJD. The positive predictive value is 94.7% and the negative predictive value is 92.4%. False-positive results in a single CSF analysis were seen in patients with herpes simplex encephalitis, hypoxic brain damage, atypical encephalitis, intracerebral metastases of a bronchial carcinoma, metabolic encephalopathy, and progressive dementia of unknown cause. WB analysis for 14-3-3 protein was positive in only 5 of 10 cases of familial forms of spongiform encephalopathies. CSF analysis for 14-3-3 protein should thus be performed in any case suspect for CJD.