В. Е. Синицын

AIMS: The aim was to validate, update, and extend the Diamond-Forrester model for estimating the probability of obstructive coronary artery disease (CAD) in a contemporary cohort. METHODS AND RESULTS: Prospectively collected data from 14 hospitals on patients with chest pain without a history of CAD and referred for conventional coronary angiography (CCA) were used. Primary outcome was obstructive CAD, defined as ≥ 50% stenosis in one or more vessels on CCA. The validity of the Diamond-Forrester model was assessed using calibration plots, calibration-in-the-large, and recalibration in logistic regression. The model was subsequently updated and extended by revising the predictive value of age, sex, and type of chest pain. Diagnostic performance was assessed by calculating the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (c-statistic) and reclassification was determined. We included 2260 patients, of whom 1319 had obstructive CAD on CCA. Validation demonstrated an overestimation of the CAD probability, especially in women. The updated and extended models demonstrated a c-statistic of 0.79 (95% CI 0.77-0.81) and 0.82 (95% CI 0.80-0.84), respectively. Sixteen per cent of men and 64% of women were correctly reclassified. The predicted probability of obstructive CAD ranged from 10% for 50-year-old females with non-specific chest pain to 91% for 80-year-old males with typical chest pain. Predictions varied across hospitals due to differences in disease prevalence. CONCLUSION: Our results suggest that the Diamond-Forrester model overestimates the probability of CAD especially in women. We updated the predictive effects of age, sex, type of chest pain, and hospital setting which improved model performance and we extended it to include patients of 70 years and older.

Postflight changes in muscle volume, calf muscle transverse relaxation time, and total body composition were measured in 4 crewmembers after a 17-day mission and in 14-16 crewmembers in multiple shuttle/Mir missions of 16- to 28-wk duration. During the 17-day mission, all muscle regions except the hamstrings significantly decreased 3-10% compared with baseline. During the shuttle/Mir missions, there were significant decreases in muscle volume (5-17%) in all muscle groups except the neck. These changes, which reached a new steady state by 4 mo of flight or less, were reversed within 30-60 days after landing. Postflight swelling and elevation of calf muscle transverse relaxation time persisted for several weeks after flight, which suggests possible muscle damage. In contrast to the 17-day flight, in which loss in fat, but not lean body mass, was found (25), losses in bone mineral content and lean body mass, but not fat, were seen after the longer shuttle/Mir missions. The percent losses in total body lean body mass and bone mineral content were similar at approximately 3.4-3.5%, whereas the pelvis demonstrated the largest regional bone loss at 13%.

OBJECTIVES: To develop prediction models that better estimate the pretest probability of coronary artery disease in low prevalence populations. DESIGN: Retrospective pooled analysis of individual patient data. SETTING: 18 hospitals in Europe and the United States. PARTICIPANTS: Patients with stable chest pain without evidence for previous coronary artery disease, if they were referred for computed tomography (CT) based coronary angiography or catheter based coronary angiography (indicated as low and high prevalence settings, respectively). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Obstructive coronary artery disease (≥ 50% diameter stenosis in at least one vessel found on catheter based coronary angiography). Multiple imputation accounted for missing predictors and outcomes, exploiting strong correlation between the two angiography procedures. Predictive models included a basic model (age, sex, symptoms, and setting), clinical model (basic model factors and diabetes, hypertension, dyslipidaemia, and smoking), and extended model (clinical model factors and use of the CT based coronary calcium score). We assessed discrimination (c statistic), calibration, and continuous net reclassification improvement by cross validation for the four largest low prevalence datasets separately and the smaller remaining low prevalence datasets combined. RESULTS: We included 5677 patients (3283 men, 2394 women), of whom 1634 had obstructive coronary artery disease found on catheter based coronary angiography. All potential predictors were significantly associated with the presence of disease in univariable and multivariable analyses. The clinical model improved the prediction, compared with the basic model (cross validated c statistic improvement from 0.77 to 0.79, net reclassification improvement 35%); the coronary calcium score in the extended model was a major predictor (0.79 to 0.88, 102%). Calibration for low prevalence datasets was satisfactory. CONCLUSIONS: Updated prediction models including age, sex, symptoms, and cardiovascular risk factors allow for accurate estimation of the pretest probability of coronary artery disease in low prevalence populations. Addition of coronary calcium scores to the prediction models improves the estimates.

BACKGROUND: Recent clinical trials have suggested that intensive versus standard lipid-lowering therapy provides for additional benefit. Electron-beam computed tomography provides the opportunity to quantify the progression of coronary artery calcification (CAC) in serial measurements. METHODS AND RESULTS: In a multicenter, randomized, double-blind trial, 471 patients (age 61+/-8 years) who had no history of coronary artery disease and no evidence of high-grade coronary stenoses (>50% diameter reduction) were randomized if they had > or =2 cardiovascular risk factors and moderate calcified coronary atherosclerosis as evidenced by a CAC score > or =30. Patients were assigned to receive 80 mg or 10 mg of atorvastatin per day over 12 months. Progression of CAC volume scores could be analyzed in 366 patients. After pretreatment with 10 mg of atorvastatin for 4 weeks, 12 months of study medication reduced LDL cholesterol from 106+/-22 to 87+/-33 mg/dL in the group randomized to receive 80 mg of atorvastatin (P<0.001), whereas levels remained stable in the group randomized to receive 10 mg (108+/-23 at baseline, 109+/-28 mg/dL at the end of the study, P=NS). The mean progression of CAC volume scores, corrected for the baseline CAC volume score, was 27% (95% CI 20.8% to 33.1%) in the 80-mg atorvastatin group and 25% (95% CI 19.1% to 30.8%) in the 10-mg atorvastatin group (P=0.65). CAC progression showed no relationship with on-treatment LDL cholesterol levels. CONCLUSIONS: We did not observe a relationship between on-treatment LDL cholesterol levels and the progression of calcified coronary atherosclerosis. Over a period of 12 months, intensive atorvastatin therapy was unable to attenuate CAC progression compared with standard atorvastatin therapy. The possibility remains that the time window was too short to demonstrate an effect.

BACKGROUND: The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has adversely affected diagnosis and treatment of noncommunicable diseases. Its effects on delivery of diagnostic care for cardiovascular disease, which remains the leading cause of death worldwide, have not been quantified. OBJECTIVES: The study sought to assess COVID-19's impact on global cardiovascular diagnostic procedural volumes and safety practices. METHODS: The International Atomic Energy Agency conducted a worldwide survey assessing alterations in cardiovascular procedure volumes and safety practices resulting from COVID-19. Noninvasive and invasive cardiac testing volumes were obtained from participating sites for March and April 2020 and compared with those from March 2019. Availability of personal protective equipment and pandemic-related testing practice changes were ascertained. RESULTS: Surveys were submitted from 909 inpatient and outpatient centers performing cardiac diagnostic procedures, in 108 countries. Procedure volumes decreased 42% from March 2019 to March 2020, and 64% from March 2019 to April 2020. Transthoracic echocardiography decreased by 59%, transesophageal echocardiography 76%, and stress tests 78%, which varied between stress modalities. Coronary angiography (invasive or computed tomography) decreased 55% (p < 0.001 for each procedure). In multivariable regression, significantly greater reduction in procedures occurred for centers in countries with lower gross domestic product. Location in a low-income and lower-middle-income country was associated with an additional 22% reduction in cardiac procedures and less availability of personal protective equipment and telehealth. CONCLUSIONS: COVID-19 was associated with a significant and abrupt reduction in cardiovascular diagnostic testing across the globe, especially affecting the world's economically challenged. Further study of cardiovascular outcomes and COVID-19-related changes in care delivery is warranted.