Johanna M. Colijn

PURPOSE: Age-related macular degeneration (AMD) is a frequent, complex disorder in elderly of European ancestry. Risk profiles and treatment options have changed considerably over the years, which may have affected disease prevalence and outcome. We determined the prevalence of early and late AMD in Europe from 1990 to 2013 using the European Eye Epidemiology (E3) consortium, and made projections for the future. DESIGN: Meta-analysis of prevalence data. PARTICIPANTS: A total of 42 080 individuals 40 years of age and older participating in 14 population-based cohorts from 10 countries in Europe. METHODS: AMD was diagnosed based on fundus photographs using the Rotterdam Classification. Prevalence of early and late AMD was calculated using random-effects meta-analysis stratified for age, birth cohort, gender, geographic region, and time period of the study. Best-corrected visual acuity (BCVA) was compared between late AMD subtypes; geographic atrophy (GA) and choroidal neovascularization (CNV). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Prevalence of early and late AMD, BCVA, and number of AMD cases. RESULTS: Prevalence of early AMD increased from 3.5% (95% confidence interval [CI] 2.1%-5.0%) in those aged 55-59 years to 17.6% (95% CI 13.6%-21.5%) in those aged ≥85 years; for late AMD these figures were 0.1% (95% CI 0.04%-0.3%) and 9.8% (95% CI 6.3%-13.3%), respectively. We observed a decreasing prevalence of late AMD after 2006, which became most prominent after age 70. Prevalences were similar for gender across all age groups except for late AMD in the oldest age category, and a trend was found showing a higher prevalence of CNV in Northern Europe. After 2006, fewer eyes and fewer ≥80-year-old subjects with CNV were visually impaired (P = 0.016). Projections of AMD showed an almost doubling of affected persons despite a decreasing prevalence. By 2040, the number of individuals in Europe with early AMD will range between 14.9 and 21.5 million, and for late AMD between 3.9 and 4.8 million. CONCLUSION: We observed a decreasing prevalence of AMD and an improvement in visual acuity in CNV occuring over the past 2 decades in Europe. Healthier lifestyles and implementation of anti-vascular endothelial growth factor treatment are the most likely explanations. Nevertheless, the numbers of affected subjects will increase considerably in the next 2 decades. AMD continues to remain a significant public health problem among Europeans.

There is an urgency to find new treatment strategies that could prevent or delay the onset or progression of AMD. Different classes of lipids and lipoproteins metabolism genes have been associated with AMD in a multiple ways, but despite the ever-increasing knowledge base, we still do not understand fully how circulating lipids or local lipid metabolism contribute to AMD. It is essential to clarify whether dietary lipids, systemic or local lipoprotein metabolismtrafficking of lipids in the retina should be targeted in the disease. In this article, we critically evaluate what has been reported in the literature and identify new directions needed to bring about a significant advance in our understanding of the role for lipids in AMD. This may help to develop potential new treatment strategies through targeting the lipid homeostasis.

Modern high-throughput experiments provide a rich resource to investigate causal determinants of disease risk. Mendelian randomization (MR) is the use of genetic variants as instrumental variables to infer the causal effect of a specific risk factor on an outcome. Multivariable MR is an extension of the standard MR framework to consider multiple potential risk factors in a single model. However, current implementations of multivariable MR use standard linear regression and hence perform poorly with many risk factors. Here, we propose a two-sample multivariable MR approach based on Bayesian model averaging (MR-BMA) that scales to high-throughput experiments. In a realistic simulation study, we show that MR-BMA can detect true causal risk factors even when the candidate risk factors are highly correlated. We illustrate MR-BMA by analysing publicly-available summarized data on metabolites to prioritise likely causal biomarkers for age-related macular degeneration.

Importance: Retinal structures may serve as a biomarker for dementia, but longitudinal studies examining this link are lacking. Objective: To investigate the association of inner retinal layer thickness with prevalent and incident dementia in a general population of Dutch adults. Design, Setting, and Participants: From September 2007 to June 2012, participants from the prospective population-based Rotterdam Study who were 45 years and older and had gradable retinal optical coherence tomography images and at baseline were free from stroke, Parkinson disease, multiple sclerosis, glaucoma, macular degeneration, retinopathy, myopia, hyperopia, and optic disc pathology were included. They were followed up until January 1, 2015, for the onset of dementia. Exposures: Inner retinal layer thicknesses (ie, retinal nerve fiber layer [RNFL]) and ganglion cell-inner plexiform layer (GC-IPL) thicknesses measured on optical coherence tomography images. Main Outcomes and Measures: Odds ratios and hazard ratios for incident dementia per SD decrease in retinal layer thickness adjusted for age, sex, education, and cardiovascular risk factors. Results: Of 5065 individuals eligible for optical coherence tomography scanning, 3289 (64.9%) (mean [SD] age 68.9 [9.9] years, 1879 [57%] women) were included in the analysis. Of these 3289 individuals, 41 (1.2%) already had dementia. Thinner GC-IPL was associated with prevalent dementia (odds ratio per SD decrease in GC-IPL, 1.37 [95% CI, 0.99-1.90]). No association was found of RNFL with prevalent dementia. During 14 674 person-years of follow-up (mean [SD], 4.5 [1.6] years), 86 individuals (2.6%) developed dementia of whom 68 (2.1%) had Alzheimer disease. Thinner RNFL at baseline was associated with an increased risk of developing dementia (hazard ratio per SD decrease in RNFL, 1.44 [95% CI, 1.19-1.75]), which was similar for Alzheimer disease (hazard ratio, 1.43 [95% CI, 1.15-1.78]). No association was found between GC-IPL thickness and incident dementia (hazard ratio, 1.13 [95% CI, 0.90-1.43]). Conclusions and Relevance: Thinner RNFL is associated with an increased risk of dementia, including Alzheimer disease, suggesting that retinal neurodegeneration may serve as a preclinical biomarker for dementia.