Erik B. van den Akker

Risk stratification is critical for the early identification of high-risk individuals and disease prevention. Here we explored the potential of nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) spectroscopy-derived metabolomic profiles to inform on multidisease risk beyond conventional clinical predictors for the onset of 24 common conditions, including metabolic, vascular, respiratory, musculoskeletal and neurological diseases and cancers. Specifically, we trained a neural network to learn disease-specific metabolomic states from 168 circulating metabolic markers measured in 117,981 participants with ~1.4 million person-years of follow-up from the UK Biobank and validated the model in four independent cohorts. We found metabolomic states to be associated with incident event rates in all the investigated conditions, except breast cancer. For 10-year outcome prediction for 15 endpoints, with and without established metabolic contribution, a combination of age and sex and the metabolomic state equaled or outperformed established predictors. Moreover, metabolomic state added predictive information over comprehensive clinical variables for eight common diseases, including type 2 diabetes, dementia and heart failure. Decision curve analyses showed that predictive improvements translated into clinical utility for a wide range of potential decision thresholds. Taken together, our study demonstrates both the potential and limitations of NMR-derived metabolomic profiles as a multidisease assay to inform on the risk of many common diseases simultaneously.

Predicting longer-term mortality risk requires collection of clinical data, which is often cumbersome. Therefore, we use a well-standardized metabolomics platform to identify metabolic predictors of long-term mortality in the circulation of 44,168 individuals (age at baseline 18-109), of whom 5512 died during follow-up. We apply a stepwise (forward-backward) procedure based on meta-analysis results and identify 14 circulating biomarkers independently associating with all-cause mortality. Overall, these associations are similar in men and women and across different age strata. We subsequently show that the prediction accuracy of 5- and 10-year mortality based on a model containing the identified biomarkers and sex (C-statistic = 0.837 and 0.830, respectively) is better than that of a model containing conventional risk factors for mortality (C-statistic = 0.772 and 0.790, respectively). The use of the identified metabolic profile as a predictor of mortality or surrogate endpoint in clinical studies needs further investigation.

By studying the loci that contribute to human longevity, we aim to identify mechanisms that contribute to healthy aging. To identify such loci, we performed a genome-wide association study (GWAS) comparing 403 unrelated nonagenarians from long-living families included in the Leiden Longevity Study (LLS) and 1670 younger population controls. The strongest candidate SNPs from this GWAS have been analyzed in a meta-analysis of nonagenarian cases from the Rotterdam Study, Leiden 85-plus study, and Danish 1905 cohort. Only one of the 62 prioritized SNPs from the GWAS analysis (P<1×10(-4) ) showed genome-wide significance with survival into old age in the meta-analysis of 4149 nonagenarian cases and 7582 younger controls [OR=0.71 (95% CI 0.65-0.77), P=3.39 × 10(-17) ]. This SNP, rs2075650, is located in TOMM40 at chromosome 19q13.32 close to the apolipoprotein E (APOE) gene. Although there was only moderate linkage disequilibrium between rs2075650 and the ApoE ε4 defining SNP rs429358, we could not find an APOE-independent effect of rs2075650 on longevity, either in cross-sectional or in longitudinal analyses. As expected, rs429358 associated with metabolic phenotypes in the offspring of the nonagenarian cases from the LLS and their partners. In addition, we observed a novel association between this locus and serum levels of IGF-1 in women (P=0.005). In conclusion, the major locus determining familial longevity up to high age as detected by GWAS was marked by rs2075650, which tags the deleterious effects of the ApoE ε4 allele. No other major longevity locus was found.

The genetic contribution to the variation in human lifespan is ∼ 25%. Despite the large number of identified disease-susceptibility loci, it is not known which loci influence population mortality. We performed a genome-wide association meta-analysis of 7729 long-lived individuals of European descent (≥ 85 years) and 16 121 younger controls (<65 years) followed by replication in an additional set of 13 060 long-lived individuals and 61 156 controls. In addition, we performed a subset analysis in cases aged ≥ 90 years. We observed genome-wide significant association with longevity, as reflected by survival to ages beyond 90 years, at a novel locus, rs2149954, on chromosome 5q33.3 (OR = 1.10, P = 1.74 × 10(-8)). We also confirmed association of rs4420638 on chromosome 19q13.32 (OR = 0.72, P = 3.40 × 10(-36)), representing the TOMM40/APOE/APOC1 locus. In a prospective meta-analysis (n = 34 103), the minor allele of rs2149954 (T) on chromosome 5q33.3 associates with increased survival (HR = 0.95, P = 0.003). This allele has previously been reported to associate with low blood pressure in middle age. Interestingly, the minor allele (T) associates with decreased cardiovascular mortality risk, independent of blood pressure. We report on the first GWAS-identified longevity locus on chromosome 5q33.3 influencing survival in the general European population. The minor allele of this locus associates with low blood pressure in middle age, although the contribution of this allele to survival may be less dependent on blood pressure. Hence, the pleiotropic mechanisms by which this intragenic variation contributes to lifespan regulation have to be elucidated.

Abstract Genome-wide association analyses using high-throughput metabolomics platforms have led to novel insights into the biology of human metabolism 1–7 . This detailed knowledge of the genetic determinants of systemic metabolism has been pivotal for uncovering how genetic pathways influence biological mechanisms and complex diseases 8–11 . Here we present a genome-wide association study for 233 circulating metabolic traits quantified by nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy in up to 136,016 participants from 33 cohorts. We identify more than 400 independent loci and assign probable causal genes at two-thirds of these using manual curation of plausible biological candidates. We highlight the importance of sample and participant characteristics that can have significant effects on genetic associations. We use detailed metabolic profiling of lipoprotein- and lipid-associated variants to better characterize how known lipid loci and novel loci affect lipoprotein metabolism at a granular level. We demonstrate the translational utility of comprehensively phenotyped molecular data, characterizing the metabolic associations of intrahepatic cholestasis of pregnancy. Finally, we observe substantial genetic pleiotropy for multiple metabolic pathways and illustrate the importance of careful instrument selection in Mendelian randomization analysis, revealing a putative causal relationship between acetone and hypertension. Our publicly available results provide a foundational resource for the community to examine the role of metabolism across diverse diseases.