Marco Carbone

UNLABELLED: The biochemical response to ursodeoxycholic acid (UDCA)--so-called "treatment response"--strongly predicts long-term outcome in primary biliary cholangitis (PBC). Several long-term prognostic models based solely on the treatment response have been developed that are widely used to risk stratify PBC patients and guide their management. However, they do not take other prognostic variables into account, such as the stage of the liver disease. We sought to improve existing long-term prognostic models of PBC using data from the UK-PBC Research Cohort. We performed Cox's proportional hazards regression analysis of diverse explanatory variables in a derivation cohort of 1,916 UDCA-treated participants. We used nonautomatic backward selection to derive the best-fitting Cox model, from which we derived a multivariable fractional polynomial model. We combined linear predictors and baseline survivor functions in equations to score the risk of a liver transplant or liver-related death occurring within 5, 10, or 15 years. We validated these risk scores in an independent cohort of 1,249 UDCA-treated participants. The best-fitting model consisted of the baseline albumin and platelet count, as well as the bilirubin, transaminases, and alkaline phosphatase, after 12 months of UDCA. In the validation cohort, the 5-, 10-, and 15-year risk scores were highly accurate (areas under the curve: >0.90). CONCLUSIONS: The prognosis of PBC patients can be accurately evaluated using the UK-PBC risk scores. They may be used to identify high-risk patients for closer monitoring and second-line therapies, as well as low-risk patients who could potentially be followed up in primary care.

BACKGROUNDS & AIMS: Primary biliary cholangitis (PBC) is a chronic liver disease in which autoimmune destruction of the small intrahepatic bile ducts eventually leads to cirrhosis. Many patients have inadequate response to licensed medications, motivating the search for novel therapies. Previous genome-wide association studies (GWAS) and meta-analyses (GWMA) of PBC have identified numerous risk loci for this condition, providing insight into its aetiology. We undertook the largest GWMA of PBC to date, aiming to identify additional risk loci and prioritise candidate genes for in silico drug efficacy screening. METHODS: We combined new and existing genotype data for 10,516 cases and 20,772 controls from 5 European and 2 East Asian cohorts. RESULTS: 17 cells in the pathogenesis of this disease. Drug efficacy screening identified several medications predicted to be therapeutic in PBC, some of which are well-established in the treatment of other autoimmune disorders. CONCLUSIONS: This study has identified additional risk loci for PBC, provided a hierarchy of agents that could be trialled in this condition, and emphasised the value of genetic and genomic approaches to drug discovery in complex disorders. LAY SUMMARY: Primary biliary cholangitis (PBC) is a chronic liver disease that eventually leads to cirrhosis. In this study, we analysed genetic information from 10,516 people with PBC and 20,772 healthy individuals recruited in Canada, China, Italy, Japan, the UK, or the USA. We identified several genetic regions associated with PBC. Each of these regions contains several genes. For each region, we used diverse sources of evidence to help us choose the gene most likely to be involved in causing PBC. We used these 'candidate genes' to help us identify medications that are currently used for treatment of other conditions, which might also be useful for treatment of PBC.

Primary biliary cholangitis (PBC) has been regarded as female-predominant without evidence of gender difference in survival. We aimed to compare the overall survival, incidence and prevalence of PBC in two well defined population-based studies over a recent decade, considering also sex ratios and mortality. We have taken advantage of population-wide records, during 2000-2009, in Lombardia, Northern Italy, and Denmark. We focused on the incident cases of PBC, including gender and outcome, among 9.7 million inhabitants of Lombardia and 5.5 million of Denmark. In Lombardia there were 2,970 PBC cases with a female:male ratio of 2.3:1. The age/sex-adjusted annual incidence of PBC was 16.7 per million. Point prevalence was 160 per million on January 1(st) 2009. In Denmark there were 722 cases of incident PBC, female:male ratio was 4.2:1, and the annual incidence was 11.4 per million, a point prevalence of 115 per million in 2009. Cox regression multivariate analysis identified male sex as an independent predictor of all-cause mortality in both Italian (HR 2.36) and Danish population (HR 3.04). Our data indicate for PBC a sex ratio significantly lower than previously cited, a reversal of the usual latitudinal difference in prevalence and a surprisingly higher overall mortality for male patients.