Yongqiang Zhang

Evapotranspiration (ET) is the process by which liquid water becomes water vapor and energetically this accounts for much of incoming solar radiation. If this ET did not occur temperatures would be higher, so understanding ET trends is crucial to predict future temperatures. Recent studies have reported prolonged declines in ET in recent decades, although these declines may relate to climate variability. Here, we used a well-validated diagnostic model to estimate daily ET during 1981-2012, and its three components: transpiration from vegetation (Et), direct evaporation from the soil (Es) and vaporization of intercepted rainfall from vegetation (Ei). During this period, ET over land has increased significantly (p < 0.01), caused by increases in Et and Ei, which are partially counteracted by Es decreasing. These contrasting trends are primarily driven by increases in vegetation leaf area index, dominated by greening. The overall increase in Et over land is about twofold of the decrease in Es. These opposing trends are not simulated by most Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) models, and highlight the importance of realistically representing vegetation changes in earth system models for predicting future changes in the energy and water cycle.

We introduce a simple biophysical model for surface conductance, G s , for use with remotely sensed leaf area index ( L ai ) data and the Penman‐Monteith (PM) equation to calculate daily average evaporation, E , at kilometer spatial resolution. The model for G s has six parameters that represent canopy physiological processes and soil evaporation: g sx , maximum stomatal conductance; Q 50 and D 50 , the values of solar radiation and atmospheric humidity deficit when the stomatal conductance is half its maximum; k Q and k A , extinction coefficients for visible radiation and available energy; and f , the ratio of soil evaporation to the equilibrium rate corresponding to the energy absorbed at the soil surface. Model parameters were estimated using 2–3 years of data from 15 flux station sites covering a wide range of climate and vegetation types globally. The PM estimates of E are best when all six parameters in the G s model are optimized at each site, but there is no significant reduction in model performance when Q 50 , D 50 , k Q , and k A are held constant across sites and g sx and f are optimized (linear regression of modeled mean daily evaporation versus measurements: slope = 0.83, intercept = 0.22 mm/d, R 2 = 0.80, and N = 10623). The average systematic root‐mean‐square error in daytime mean evaporation was 0.27 mm/d (range 0.09–0.50 mm/d) for the 15 sites. The average unsystematic component was 0.48 mm/d (range 0.28–0.71 mm/d). The new model for G s with two parameters yields better estimates of E than an earlier, simple model G s = c L L ai , where c L is an optimized parameter. Our study confirms that the PM equation provides reliable estimates of evaporation rates from land surfaces at daily time scales and kilometer space scales when remotely sensed leaf area indices are incorporated into a simple biophysical model for surface conductance. Developing remote sensing techniques to measure the temporal and spatial variation in f is expected to enhance the utility of the model proposed in this paper.

Earlier vegetation greening under climate change raises evapotranspiration and thus lowers spring soil moisture, yet the extent and magnitude of this water deficit persistence into the following summer remain elusive. We provide observational evidence that increased foliage cover over the Northern Hemisphere, during 1982-2011, triggers an additional soil moisture deficit that is further carried over into summer. Climate model simulations independently support this and attribute the driving process to be larger increases in evapotranspiration than in precipitation. This extra soil drying is projected to amplify the frequency and intensity of summer heatwaves. Most feedbacks operate locally, except for a notable teleconnection where extra moisture transpired over Europe is transported to central Siberia. Model results illustrate that this teleconnection offsets Siberian soil moisture losses from local spring greening. Our results highlight that climate change adaptation planning must account for the extra summer water and heatwave stress inherited from warming-induced earlier greening.