Ted Gooley

A topic that has received attention in both the statistical and medical literature is the estimation of the probability of failure for endpoints that are subject to competing risks. Despite this, it is not uncommon to see the complement of the Kaplan-Meier estimate used in this setting and interpreted as the probability of failure. If one desires an estimate that can be interpreted in this way, however, the cumulative incidence estimate is the appropriate tool to use in such situations. We believe the more commonly seen representations of the Kaplan-Meier estimate and the cumulative incidence estimate do not lend themselves to easy explanation and understanding of this interpretation. We present, therefore, a representation of each estimate in a manner not ordinarily seen, each representation utilizing the concept of censored observations being 'redistributed to the right.' We feel these allow a more intuitive understanding of each estimate and therefore an appreciation of why the Kaplan-Meier method is inappropriate for estimation purposes in the presence of competing risks, while the cumulative incidence estimate is appropriate.

We evaluated the safety and efficacy of high-dose, posttransplantation cyclophosphamide (Cy) to prevent graft rejection and graft-versus-host disease (GVHD) after outpatient nonmyeloablative conditioning and T cell-replete bone marrow transplantation from partially HLA-mismatched (haploidentical) related donors. Patients with advanced hematologic malignancies (n = 67) or paroxysmal nocturnal hemoglobinuria (n = 1) received Cy 50 mg/kg i.v. on day 3 (n = 28) or on days 3 and 4 (n = 40) after transplantation. The median times to neutrophil (>500/microL) and platelet recovery (>20,000/microL) were 15 and 24 days, respectively. Graft failure occurred in 9 of 66 (13%) evaluable patients, and was fatal in 1. The cumulative incidences of grades II-IV and grades III-IV acute (aGVHD) by day 200 were 34% and 6%, respectively. There was a trend toward a lower risk of extensive chronic GVHD (cGVHD) among recipients of 2 versus 1 dose of posttransplantation Cy (P = .05), the only difference between these groups. The cumulative incidences of nonrelapse mortality (NRM) and relapse at 1 year were 15% and 51%, respectively. Actuarial overall survival (OS) and event-free survival (EFS) at 2 years after transplantation were 36% and 26%, respectively. Patients with lymphoid malignancies had an improved EFS compared to those with myelogenous malignancies (P = .02). Nonmyeloablative HLA-haploidentical BMT with posttransplantation Cy is associated with acceptable rates of fatal graft failure and severe aGVHD or cGVHD.

BACKGROUND: Over the past decade, advances have been made in the care of patients undergoing transplantation. We conducted a study to determine whether these advances have improved the outcomes of transplantation. METHODS: We analyzed overall mortality, mortality not preceded by relapse, recurrent malignant conditions, and the frequency and severity of major complications of transplantation, including graft-versus-host disease (GVHD) and hepatic, renal, pulmonary, and infectious complications, among 1418 patients who received their first allogeneic transplants at our center in Seattle in the period from 1993 through 1997 and among 1148 patients who received their first allogeneic transplants in the period from 2003 through 2007. Components of the Pretransplant Assessment of Mortality (PAM) score were used in regression models to adjust for the severity of illness at the time of transplantation. RESULTS: In the 2003-2007 period, as compared with the 1993-1997 period, we observed significant decreases in mortality not preceded by relapse, both at day 200 (by 60%) and overall (by 52%), the rate of relapse or progression of a malignant condition (by 21%), and overall mortality (by 41%), after adjustment for components of the PAM score. The results were similar when the analyses were limited to patients who received myeloablative conditioning therapy. We also found significant decreases in the risk of severe GVHD; disease caused by viral, bacterial, and fungal infections; and damage to the liver, kidneys, and lungs. CONCLUSIONS: We found a substantial reduction in the hazard of death related to allogeneic hematopoietic-cell transplantation, as well as increased long-term survival, over the past decade. Improved outcomes appear to be related to reductions in organ damage, infection, and severe acute GVHD. (Funded by the National Institutes of Health.).

Patients successfully treated with a marrow transplant often have concerns about fertility and pregnancy. This study was performed to determine pregnancy outcome among patients who had received high-dose chemotherapy alone or with total-body irradiation (TBI) and marrow transplantation for aplastic anemia or hematologic malignancy. Records of 1,326 postpubertal and 196 prepubertal patients currently more than 12 years of age after marrow transplant in Seattle from August 1971 to January 1992 were reviewed to determine the patients with normal gonadal function and pregnancies. Among 708 postpubertal women, 110 recovered normal ovarian function and 32 became pregnant. In addition, nine formerly prepubertal girls with normal gonadal function became pregnant. Among 618 postpubertal men, 157 recovered testicular function and partners of 33 became pregnant. An additional two formerly prepubertal men had partners who became pregnant. Forty-one female patients and partners of 35 male patients had 146 pregnancies after transplant. All 76 patients responded to a questionnaire requesting pregnancy history, outcome, infant birth weight, and congenital anomalies information for all clinically recognized pregnancies. There were 115 live births among 146 (79%) pregnancies. Spontaneous abortion terminated four of 56 (7%) pregnancies for 28 female cyclophosphamide (CY) recipients and six of 16 (37%) pregnancies for 13 TBI recipients (P = .02). Partners of 28 male CY recipients had four of 62 (6.4%) pregnancies terminate with spontaneous abortion, but there were no spontaneous abortions among eight pregnancies of five TBI recipients' partners. Preterm delivery occurred for eight of 44 (18%) and five of eight (63%) live births for 24 CY and eight TBI female recipients (P = .01). This 25% incidence among all female patient pregnancies is higher than the expected incidence of 8% to 10% (P = .0001). The 13 preterm deliveries resulted in 10 low birth weight ([LBW] 1.8 to 2.24 kg) and three very low birth weight ([VLBW] < or = 1.36 kg) infants, for an overall incidence of 25%, which is higher than the expected incidence of 6.5% for the general population (P = .0001). Twelve of the 13 premature infants survive. Congenital anomalies were seen among two of 52 (3.8%) live-born infants of female and six of 63 (9.5%) live-born infants of male patients, which is not different from the 13% of single congenital anomalies reported for the general population. These data demonstrate that clinically recognized pregnancies among women who have received a marrow transplant incorporating TBI are likely to be accompanied by an increased risk of spontaneous abortion. Pregnancies among all women who received a marrow transplant are likely to be accompanied by preterm labor and delivery of LBW or VLBW babies who do not seem to be at an increased risk of congenital anomalies. However, determination of possible adverse effects of parental exposure to high-dose alkylating agents with or without TBI on children born posttransplant requires longer, additional follow-up.

PURPOSE: To analyze factors that affect the collection of peripheral-blood stem cells (PBSC) before transplant and the tempo of engraftment after transplant. PATIENTS AND METHODS: A consecutive series of 243 patients with breast cancer (n = 87), malignant lymphoma (n = 90), multiple myeloma (n = 32), or other malignancies (n = 34) had PBSC collected following stimulation with colony-stimulating factors (CSFs) or after chemotherapy followed by CSF. Infusion of PBSC was performed following myeloablative chemotherapy with chemotherapy with or without total-body irradiation (TBI). Postinfusion CSFs were administered to 72 patients. An analysis of factors that influence CD34+ cell yield was performed by linear regression. Cox regression analysis was used to determine factors that affect the kinetics of granulocyte and platelet recovery following infusion of PBSC. RESULTS: Mobilization with chemotherapy followed by CSF, a diagnosis of breast cancer, absence of marrow disease, no prior history of radiation therapy, and fewer cycles of conventional-dose chemotherapy were associated with a higher average daily yield of CD34+ cells. In the multivariate analysis, the CD34 content of infused cells and the use of a posttransplant CSF influenced neutrophil recovery after infusion of PBSC. CD34 content was also important for predicting platelet recovery. The use of postinfusion CSF was associated with a significant delay in platelet recovery in patients who received less than 5.0 x 10(6) CD34+ cells/kg, but there was no discernable effect in patients who received greater than 5.0 x 10(6) CD34+ cells/kg. CONCLUSION: Disease status and prior treatment influence the ability to mobilize PBSC. CD34 cell dose is an important predictor of engraftment kinetics after PBSC transplant, regardless of disease or mobilization technique. The use of postinfusion CSF improves neutrophil recovery, but at low CD34 doses can delay platelet recovery.