Brendan O’Fallon

The genetic and demographic impact of European contact with Native Americans has remained unclear despite recent interest. Whereas archeological and historical records indicate that European contact resulted in widespread mortality from various sources, genetic studies have found little evidence of a recent contraction in Native American population size. In this study we use a large dataset including both ancient and contemporary mitochondrial DNA to construct a high-resolution portrait of the Holocene and late Pleistocene population size of indigenous Americans. Our reconstruction suggests that Native Americans suffered a significant, although transient, contraction in population size some 500 y before the present, during which female effective size was reduced by ∼50%. These results support analyses of historical records indicating that European colonization induced widespread mortality among indigenous Americans.

Coalescent theory provides an elegant and powerful method for understanding the shape of gene genealogies and resulting patterns of genetic diversity. However, the coalescent does not naturally accommodate the effects of heritable variation in fitness. Although some methods are available for studying the effects of strong selection (Ns >> 1), few tools beyond forward simulation are available for quantifying the impact of weak selection at many sites. Here, we introduce a continuous-state coalescent capable of accurately describing the distortions to genealogies caused by moderate to weak natural selection affecting many linked sites. We calculate approximately the full distribution of pairwise coalescent times, the lengths of coalescent intervals, and the time to the most recent common ancestor of a sample. Weak selection (Ns approximately 1) is found to substantially decrease the tree depth, primarily through a shortening of the lengths of the basal coalescent intervals. Additionally, we demonstrate that only two parameters, population size and the variance of the distribution describing fitness heritability, are sufficient to describe most changes.