Stephen J. Gange

Autoimmune diseases cause significant and chronic morbidity and disability. The actual number of persons in the United States that are affected by autoimmune diseases and the resultant magnitude of their impact on the public's health are limited to a few specific diseases. In order to understand the clinical, public health and economic importance of these diseases it is necessary to have estimates of incidence and prevalence rates in the population. In this analysis, we estimate the number of persons affected by 24 autoimmune diseases in the United States by applying mean weighted prevalence and incidence rates obtained from published articles to U. S. Census data. The study was restricted to 24 autoimmune predefined diseases for which there was direct or indirect evidence for autoimmune pathogenesis. Subsequently, we used computerized search software and ancestry searching (bibliographies) to conduct a comprehensive search of articles published from 1965 to the present. Eligible studies included those which adhered to standard disease definitions and which included population-based estimates of incidence or prevalence rates. Mean weighted incidence and prevalence rates were calculated from eligible published studies with greater weight proportionately given to larger studies. The mean rates were then applied to the U.S. Census population figures to estimate the number of persons currently afflicted with each disease and the number of new cases occurring each year in the United States. Only U.S. and European studies were used to estimate prevalence and incidence rates when there were at least six eligible studies available for a disease. When there were fewer than six studies, all available studies were included, regardless of country of origin. The number of eligible incidence and prevalence studies found in the literature varied considerably between the 24 autoimmune diseases selected. The largest number of eligible prevalence studies were conducted on multiple sclerosis (MS), rheumatoid arthritis, and systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) (>/=23), followed by insulin-dependent diabetes (IDDM), myasthenia gravis, primary biliary cirrhosis, and scleroderma (>/=7). There were only one to four eligible studies done on 11 other diseases, and no prevalence studies on 6 diseases. Incidence studies were less frequent but the largest number of studies were conducted on IDDM (n = 37) and MS (n = 28), followed by Graves' disease/hyperthyroidism, glomerulonephritis, primary biliary cirrhosis, rheumatic fever, rheumatoid arthritis, scleroderma, and SLE (>/=9). On the other 11 diseases, there were one to six eligible studies, and no studies on 5 diseases. There were no eligible incidence or prevalence studies on Goodpasture's syndrome, idiopathic thrombocytopenia purpura, or relapsing polychondritis. Overall we estimate that 8,511,845 persons in the United States or approximately 1 in 31 Americans are currently afflicted with one of these autoimmune diseases. The diseases with the highest prevalence rates were Graves'/hyperthyroidism, IDDM, pernicious anemia, rheumatoid arthritis, thyroiditis, and vitiligo, comprising an estimated 7,939, 280 people or 93% of the total number estimated. Glomerulonephritis, MS, and SLE added an estimated 323,232 people. The prevalence of the other diseases reviewed were rare, less than 5.14/100,000. Most diseases were more common in women. From the incidence data we estimate that 237,203 Americans will develop an autoimmune disease in 1996 and that approximately 1,186,015 new cases of these autoimmune diseases occur in the United States every 5 years. Women were at 2.7 times greater risk than men to acquire an autoimmune disease. After reviewing the medical literature for incidence and prevalence rates of 24 autoimmune diseases, we conclude that many autoimmune diseases are infrequently studied by epidemiologists. As a result the total burden of disease may be an underestimate. (ABSTRACT TRUNCATED)

BACKGROUND: Combination antiretroviral therapy (ART) has significantly increased survival among HIV-positive adults in the United States (U.S.) and Canada, but gains in life expectancy for this region have not been well characterized. We aim to estimate temporal changes in life expectancy among HIV-positive adults on ART from 2000-2007 in the U.S. and Canada. METHODS: Participants were from the North American AIDS Cohort Collaboration on Research and Design (NA-ACCORD), aged ≥20 years and on ART. Mortality rates were calculated using participants' person-time from January 1, 2000 or ART initiation until death, loss to follow-up, or administrative censoring December 31, 2007. Life expectancy at age 20, defined as the average number of additional years that a person of a specific age will live, provided the current age-specific mortality rates remain constant, was estimated using abridged life tables. RESULTS: The crude mortality rate was 19.8/1,000 person-years, among 22,937 individuals contributing 82,022 person-years and 1,622 deaths. Life expectancy increased from 36.1 [standard error (SE) 0.5] to 51.4 [SE 0.5] years from 2000-2002 to 2006-2007. Men and women had comparable life expectancies in all periods except the last (2006-2007). Life expectancy was lower for individuals with a history of injection drug use, non-whites, and in patients with baseline CD4 counts <350 cells/mm(3). CONCLUSIONS: A 20-year-old HIV-positive adult on ART in the U.S. or Canada is expected to live into their early 70 s, a life expectancy approaching that of the general population. Differences by sex, race, HIV transmission risk group, and CD4 count remain.

Competing events can preclude the event of interest from occurring in epidemiologic data and can be analyzed by using extensions of survival analysis methods. In this paper, the authors outline 3 regression approaches for estimating 2 key quantities in competing risks analysis: the cause-specific relative hazard ((cs)RH) and the subdistribution relative hazard ((sd)RH). They compare and contrast the structure of the risk sets and the interpretation of parameters obtained with these methods. They also demonstrate the use of these methods with data from the Women's Interagency HIV Study established in 1993, treating time to initiation of highly active antiretroviral therapy or to clinical disease progression as competing events. In our example, women with an injection drug use history were less likely than those without a history of injection drug use to initiate therapy prior to progression to acquired immunodeficiency syndrome or death by both measures of association ((cs)RH = 0.67, 95% confidence interval: 0.57, 0.80 and (sd)RH = 0.60, 95% confidence interval: 0.50, 0.71). Moreover, the relative hazards for disease progression prior to treatment were elevated ((cs)RH = 1.71, 95% confidence interval: 1.37, 2.13 and (sd)RH = 2.01, 95% confidence interval: 1.62, 2.51). Methods for competing risks should be used by epidemiologists, with the choice of method guided by the scientific question.