Mohamed L. Sorror

We previously reported that the Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) was useful for predicting outcomes in patients undergoing allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplantation (HCT). However, the sample size of patients with scores of 1 or more, captured by the CCI, did not exceed 35%. Further, some comorbidities were rarely found among patients who underwent HCT. Therefore, the current study was designed to (1) better define previously identified comorbidities using pretransplant laboratory data, (2) investigate additional HCT-related comorbidities, and (3) establish comorbidity scores that were suited for HCT. Data were collected from 1055 patients, and then randomly divided into training and validation sets. Weights were assigned to individual comorbidities according to their prognostic significance in Cox proportional hazard models. The new index was then validated. The new index proved to be more sensitive than the CCI since it captured 62% of patients with scores more than 0 compared with 12%, respectively. Further, the new index showed better survival prediction than the CCI (likelihood ratio of 23.7 versus 7.1 and c statistics of 0.661 versus 0.561, respectively, P < .001). In conclusion, the new simple index provided valid and reliable scoring of pretransplant comorbidities that predicted nonrelapse mortality and survival. This index will be useful for clinical trials and patient counseling before HCT.

BACKGROUND: Over the past decade, advances have been made in the care of patients undergoing transplantation. We conducted a study to determine whether these advances have improved the outcomes of transplantation. METHODS: We analyzed overall mortality, mortality not preceded by relapse, recurrent malignant conditions, and the frequency and severity of major complications of transplantation, including graft-versus-host disease (GVHD) and hepatic, renal, pulmonary, and infectious complications, among 1418 patients who received their first allogeneic transplants at our center in Seattle in the period from 1993 through 1997 and among 1148 patients who received their first allogeneic transplants in the period from 2003 through 2007. Components of the Pretransplant Assessment of Mortality (PAM) score were used in regression models to adjust for the severity of illness at the time of transplantation. RESULTS: In the 2003-2007 period, as compared with the 1993-1997 period, we observed significant decreases in mortality not preceded by relapse, both at day 200 (by 60%) and overall (by 52%), the rate of relapse or progression of a malignant condition (by 21%), and overall mortality (by 41%), after adjustment for components of the PAM score. The results were similar when the analyses were limited to patients who received myeloablative conditioning therapy. We also found significant decreases in the risk of severe GVHD; disease caused by viral, bacterial, and fungal infections; and damage to the liver, kidneys, and lungs. CONCLUSIONS: We found a substantial reduction in the hazard of death related to allogeneic hematopoietic-cell transplantation, as well as increased long-term survival, over the past decade. Improved outcomes appear to be related to reductions in organ damage, infection, and severe acute GVHD. (Funded by the National Institutes of Health.).

PURPOSE: Allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplantation (HCT) is curative but is associated with life-threatening complications. Most deaths occur within the first 2 years after transplantation. In this report, we examine long-term survival in 2-year survivors in the largest cohort ever studied. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Records of 10,632 patients worldwide reported to the Center for International Blood and Marrow Transplant Research who were alive and disease free 2 years after receiving a myeloablative allogeneic HCT before 2004 for acute myelogenous or lymphoblastic leukemia, myelodysplastic syndrome, lymphoma, or severe aplastic anemia were reviewed. RESULTS: Median follow-up was 9 years, and 3,788 patients had been observed for 10 or more years. The probability of being alive 10 years after HCT was 85%. The chief risk factors for late death included older age and chronic graft-versus-host disease (GVHD). For patients who underwent transplantation for malignancy, relapse was the most common cause of death. The greatest risk factor for late relapse was advanced disease at transplantation. Principal risk factors for nonrelapse deaths were older age and GVHD. When compared with age, sex, and nationality-matched general population, late deaths remained higher than expected for each disease, with the possible exception of lymphoma, although the relative risk generally receded over time. CONCLUSION: The prospect for long-term survival is excellent for 2-year survivors of allogeneic HCT. However, life expectancy remains lower than expected. Performance of HCT earlier in the course of disease, control of GVHD, enhancement of immune reconstitution, less toxic regimens, and prevention and early treatment of late complications are needed.

BACKGROUND: The majority of patients in need of a hematopoietic-cell transplant do not have a matched related donor. Data are needed to inform the choice among various alternative donor-cell sources. METHODS: In this retrospective analysis, we compared outcomes in 582 consecutive patients with acute leukemia or the myelodysplastic syndrome who received a first myeloablative hematopoietic-cell transplant from an unrelated cord-blood donor (140 patients), an HLA-matched unrelated donor (344), or an HLA-mismatched unrelated donor (98). RESULTS: The relative risks of death and relapse between the cord-blood group and the two other unrelated-donor groups appeared to vary according to the presence of minimal residual disease status before transplantation. Among patients with minimal residual disease, the risk of death was higher in the HLA-mismatched group than in the cord-blood group (hazard ratio, 2.92; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.52 to 5.63; P=0.001); the risk was also higher in the HLA-matched group than in the cord-blood group but not significantly so (hazard ratio, 1.69; 95% CI, 0.94 to 3.02; P=0.08). Among patients without minimal residual disease, the hazard ratios were lower (hazard ratio in the HLA-mismatched group, 1.36; 95% CI, 0.76 to 2.46; P=0.30; hazard ratio in the HLA-matched group, 0.78; 95% CI, 0.48 to 1.28; P=0.33). The risk of relapse among patients with minimal residual disease was significantly higher in the two unrelated-donor groups than in the cord-blood group (hazard ratio in the HLA-mismatched group, 3.01; 95% CI, 1.22 to 7.38; P=0.02; hazard ratio in the HLA-matched group, 2.92; 95% CI, 1.34 to 6.35; P=0.007). Among patients without minimal residual disease, the magnitude of these associations was lower (hazard ratio in the HLA-mismatched group, 1.28; 95% CI, 0.51 to 3.25; P=0.60; hazard ratio in the HLA-matched group, 1.30; 95% CI, 0.65 to 2.58; P=0.46). CONCLUSIONS: Our data suggest that among patients with pretransplantation minimal residual disease, the probability of overall survival after receipt of a transplant from a cord-blood donor was at least as favorable as that after receipt of a transplant from an HLA-matched unrelated donor and was significantly higher than the probability after receipt of a transplant from an HLA-mismatched unrelated donor. Furthermore, the probability of relapse was lower in the cord-blood group than in either of the other groups.

PURPOSE: Age has long been used as a major factor for assessing suitability for allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplantation (HCT). The HCT-comorbidity index (HCT-CI) was developed as a measure of health status to predict mortality risk after HCT. Whether age, comorbidities, or both should guide decision making for HCT is unknown. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Data from 3,033 consecutive recipients of HLA-matched grafts from five institutions contributed to this analysis. Patients were randomly divided into a training set to develop weights for age intervals and a validation set to assess the performance of prognostic models. RESULTS: In the training set, patients age 20 to 39 years, 40 to 49 years, 50 to 59 years, and ≥ 60 years had hazard ratios for nonrelapse mortality (NRM) of 1.21 (P = .29), 1.48 (P = .04), 1.75 (P = .004), and 1.84 (P = .005), respectively, compared with those age younger than 20 years. Consequently, age ≥ 40 years was assigned a weight of 1 to be added to the HCT-CI to constitute a composite comorbidity/age index. In the validation set, the composite comorbidity/age score had statistically significantly higher c-statistic estimates for prediction of NRM (0.664 v 0.556; P < .001) and survival (0.682 v 0.560; P < .001) compared with age, respectively. Patients with comorbidity/age scores of 0 to 2 had comparable mortality risks regardless of conditioning regimens. Patients with scores of 3 to 4 and ≥ 5 had statistically significant higher mortality risks after high-dose versus nonmyeloablative regimens. CONCLUSION: Age is a poor prognostic factor. The proposed composite measure allows integration of both comorbidities and age into clinical decision making and comparative-effectiveness research of HCT.