Rajendra Kadel

BACKGROUND: Comprehensive and comparable estimates of health spending in each country are a key input for health policy and planning, and are necessary to support the achievement of national and international health goals. Previous studies have tracked past and projected future health spending until 2040 and shown that, with economic development, countries tend to spend more on health per capita, with a decreasing share of spending from development assistance and out-of-pocket sources. We aimed to characterise the past, present, and predicted future of global health spending, with an emphasis on equity in spending across countries. METHODS: We estimated domestic health spending for 195 countries and territories from 1995 to 2016, split into three categories-government, out-of-pocket, and prepaid private health spending-and estimated development assistance for health (DAH) from 1990 to 2018. We estimated future scenarios of health spending using an ensemble of linear mixed-effects models with time series specifications to project domestic health spending from 2017 through 2050 and DAH from 2019 through 2050. Data were extracted from a broad set of sources tracking health spending and revenue, and were standardised and converted to inflation-adjusted 2018 US dollars. Incomplete or low-quality data were modelled and uncertainty was estimated, leading to a complete data series of total, government, prepaid private, and out-of-pocket health spending, and DAH. Estimates are reported in 2018 US dollars, 2018 purchasing-power parity-adjusted dollars, and as a percentage of gross domestic product. We used demographic decomposition methods to assess a set of factors associated with changes in government health spending between 1995 and 2016 and to examine evidence to support the theory of the health financing transition. We projected two alternative future scenarios based on higher government health spending to assess the potential ability of governments to generate more resources for health. FINDINGS: Between 1995 and 2016, health spending grew at a rate of 4·00% (95% uncertainty interval 3·89-4·12) annually, although it grew slower in per capita terms (2·72% [2·61-2·84]) and increased by less than $1 per capita over this period in 22 of 195 countries. The highest annual growth rates in per capita health spending were observed in upper-middle-income countries (5·55% [5·18-5·95]), mainly due to growth in government health spending, and in lower-middle-income countries (3·71% [3·10-4·34]), mainly from DAH. Health spending globally reached $8·0 trillion (7·8-8·1) in 2016 (comprising 8·6% [8·4-8·7] of the global economy and $10·3 trillion [10·1-10·6] in purchasing-power parity-adjusted dollars), with a per capita spending of US$5252 (5184-5319) in high-income countries, $491 (461-524) in upper-middle-income countries, $81 (74-89) in lower-middle-income countries, and $40 (38-43) in low-income countries. In 2016, 0·4% (0·3-0·4) of health spending globally was in low-income countries, despite these countries comprising 10·0% of the global population. In 2018, the largest proportion of DAH targeted HIV/AIDS ($9·5 billion, 24·3% of total DAH), although spending on other infectious diseases (excluding tuberculosis and malaria) grew fastest from 2010 to 2018 (6·27% per year). The leading sources of DAH were the USA and private philanthropy (excluding corporate donations and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation). For the first time, we included estimates of China's contribution to DAH ($644·7 million in 2018). Globally, health spending is projected to increase to $15·0 trillion (14·0-16·0) by 2050 (reaching 9·4% [7·6-11·3] of the global economy and $21·3 trillion [19·8-23·1] in purchasing-power parity-adjusted dollars), but at a lower growth rate of 1·84% (1·68-2·02) annually, and with continuing disparities in spending between countries. In 2050, we estimate that 0·6% (0·6-0·7) of health spending will occur in currently low-income countries, despite these countries comprising an estimated 15·7% of the global population by 2050. The ratio between per capita health spending in high-income and low-income countries was 130·2 (122·9-136·9) in 2016 and is projected to remain at similar levels in 2050 (125·9 [113·7-138·1]). The decomposition analysis identified governments' increased prioritisation of the health sector and economic development as the strongest factors associated with increases in government health spending globally. Future government health spending scenarios suggest that, with greater prioritisation of the health sector and increased government spending, health spending per capita could more than double, with greater impacts in countries that currently have the lowest levels of government health spending. INTERPRETATION: Financing for global health has increased steadily over the past two decades and is projected to continue increasing in the future, although at a slower pace of growth and with persistent disparities in per-capita health spending between countries. Out-of-pocket spending is projected to remain substantial outside of high-income countries. Many low-income countries are expected to remain dependent on development assistance, although with greater government spending, larger investments in health are feasible. In the absence of sustained new investments in health, increasing efficiency in health spending is essential to meet global health targets. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

PURPOSE: To investigate whether a mindfulness-based stress reduction program for cancer (MBSR-C) improved psychological and physical symptoms, quality of life (QOL), and stress markers among advanced-stage cancer patients and caregivers. DESIGN: A pilot within-subject design was used. METHOD: Patients previously diagnosed with advanced-stage breast, colon, lung, or prostate cancer and on treatment were recruited from the Moffitt Cancer Center and Research Institute. Twenty-six patient-caregiver dyads completed a modified 6-week, self-study MBSR-C program based on the Kabat-Zinn model. Psychological and physical symptoms and QOL were compared pre- and post-MBSR-C sessions. Salivary cortisol and interleukin-6 were assessed pre- and post-MBSR-C session at 1, 3, and 6 weeks. FINDINGS: Following the 6-week MBSR program, patients showed improvements in stress and anxiety (p < .05); caregivers' psychological and QOL also improved but were not statistically significant. Both patients and caregivers had decreases in cortisol at Weeks 1 and 3 (p < .05) but not at Week 6. Similar to cortisol levels at Week 6, salivary interleukin-6 levels were lower overall (before/after an MBSR-C session), compared with Week 1 for patients and caregivers. CONCLUSIONS: MBSR-C may be a beneficial intervention for reducing stress, anxiety, cortisol levels, and symptoms in advanced-stage cancer patients and may also benefit caregivers.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the health and financial burden of adverse childhood experiences (ACEs) in England and Wales. DESIGN: The study combined data from five randomly stratified cross-sectional ACE studies. Population attributable fractions (PAFs) were calculated for major health risks and causes of ill health and applied to disability adjusted life years (DALYs), with financial costs estimated using a modified human capital method. SETTING: Households in England and Wales. PARTICIPANTS: 15 285 residents aged 18-69. OUTCOME MEASURES: The outcome measures were PAFs for single (1 ACE) and multiple (2-3 and ≥4 ACEs) ACE exposure categories for four health risks (smoking, alcohol use, drug use, high body mass index) and nine causes of ill health (cancer, type 2 diabetes, heart disease, respiratory disease, stroke, violence, anxiety, depression, other mental illness); and annual estimated DALYs and financial costs attributable to ACEs. RESULTS: Cumulative relationships were found between ACEs and risks of all outcomes. For health risks, PAFs for ACEs were highest for drug use (Wales 58.8%, England 52.6%), although ACE-attributable smoking had the highest estimated costs (England and Wales, £7.8 billion). For causes of ill health, PAFs for ACEs were highest for violence (Wales 48.9%, England 43.4%) and mental illness (ranging from 29.1% for anxiety in England to 49.7% for other mental illness in Wales). The greatest ACE-attributable costs were for mental illness (anxiety, depression and other mental illness; England and Wales, £11.2 billion) and cancer (£7.9 billion). Across all outcomes, the total annual ACE-attributable cost was estimated at £42.8 billion. The majority of costs related to exposures to multiple rather than a single ACE (ranging from 71.9% for high body mass index to 98.3% for cancer). CONCLUSIONS: ACEs impose a substantial societal burden in England and Wales. Policies and practices that prevent ACEs, build resilience and develop trauma-informed services are needed to reduce burden of disease and avoidable service use and financial costs across health and other sectors.

OBJECTIVES: Therapies for post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) endorsed by the Department of Defense and Veterans Administration are relatively lengthy, costly, and yield variable success. We evaluated Accelerated Resolution Therapy (ART) for the treatment of combat-related psychological trauma. METHODS: A randomized controlled trial of ART versus an Attention Control (AC) regimen was conducted among 57 U.S. service members/veterans. After random assignment, those assigned to AC were offered crossover to ART, with 3-month follow-up on all participants. Self-report symptoms of PTSD and comorbidities were analyzed among study completers and by the intention-to-treat principle. RESULTS: Mean age was 41 ± 13 years with 19% female, 54% Army, and 68% with prior PTSD treatment. The ART was delivered in 3.7 ± 1.1 sessions with a 94% completion rate. Mean reductions in symptoms of PTSD, depression, anxiety, and trauma-related guilt were significantly greater (p < 0.001) with ART compared to AC. Favorable results for those treated with ART persisted at 3 months, including reduction in aggression (p < 0.0001). Adverse treatment-related events were rare and not serious. CONCLUSIONS: ART appears to be a safe and effective treatment for symptoms of combat-related PTSD, including refractory PTSD, and is delivered in significantly less time than therapies endorsed by the Department of Defense and Veterans Administration.

Low birth weight (LBW) remains a major public health problem in developing countries, including Nepal. This study was undertaken to examine the association between LBW and maternal factors and antenatal care service utilization, in rural Nepal, using data obtained for a capacity-building and text-messaging intervention, designed to enhance maternal and child health service utilization among pregnant women, in rural Nepal ("MATRI-SUMAN"). The study used a clustered randomized controlled design and was conducted during 2015⁻2016. We investigated maternal and antenatal care service utilization determinants of LBW, using a logistic regression model. Of the four hundred and two singleton babies, included in the present study, seventy-eight (19.4%) had an LBW (mean (SD), 2210.64 (212.47)) grams. It was found that Dalit caste/ethnicity, illiteracy, manual labor, a female baby, and having more than four family members were significantly positively associated with LBW. In addition, mothers who did not visit an antenatal care (ANC) unit, visited an ANC < 4 times, did not take iron and folic acid (IFA), de-worming tablets, and mothers that did not consume additional food, during pregnancy, were more likely to have an LBW baby, than their counterparts. The MATRI-SUMAN intervention and availability of a kitchen garden at home, were found to reduce the risk of LBW. Nepalese child survival policies and programs should pay attention to these maternal and antenatal care service utilization factors, while designating preventive strategies to improve child health outcomes.