Daniel Cresta

The endpoint dilution assay's output, the 50% infectious dose (ID50), is calculated using the Reed-Muench or Spearman-Kärber mathematical approximations, which are biased and often miscalculated. We introduce a replacement for the ID50 that we call Specific INfection (SIN) along with a free and open-source web-application, midSIN (https://midsin.physics.ryerson.ca) to calculate it. midSIN computes a virus sample's SIN concentration using Bayesian inference based on the results of a standard endpoint dilution assay, and requires no changes to current experimental protocols. We analyzed influenza and respiratory syncytial virus samples using midSIN and demonstrated that the SIN/mL reliably corresponds to the number of infections a sample will cause per mL. It can therefore be used directly to achieve a desired multiplicity of infection, similarly to how plaque or focus forming units (PFU, FFU) are used. midSIN's estimates are shown to be more accurate and robust than the Reed-Muench and Spearman-Kärber approximations. The impact of endpoint dilution plate design choices (dilution factor, replicates per dilution) on measurement accuracy is also explored. The simplicity of SIN as a measure and the greater accuracy provided by midSIN make them an easy and superior replacement for the TCID50 and other in vitro culture ID50 measures. We hope to see their universal adoption to measure the infectivity of virus samples.

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1009480.].

A virus infection can be initiated with very few or even a single infectious virion, and as such can become extinct, i.e. stochastically fail to take hold or spread significantly. There are many ways that a fully competent infectious virion, having successfully entered a cell, can fail to cause a productive infection, i.e. one that yields infectious virus progeny. Though many stochastic models (SMs) have been developed and used to estimate a virus infection's establishment probability, these typically neglect infection failure post virus entry. The SM presented herein introduces parameter [Formula: see text] which corresponds to the probability that a virion's entry into a cell will result in a productive cell infection. We derive an expression for the likelihood of infection establishment in this new SM, and find that prophylactic therapy with an antiviral reducing [Formula: see text] is at least as good or better at decreasing the establishment probability, compared to antivirals reducing the rates of virus production or virus entry into cells, irrespective of the SM parameters. We investigate the difference in the fraction of cells consumed by so-called extinct versus established virus infections, and find that this distinction becomes biologically meaningless as the probability of establishment approaches zero. We explain why the release of virions continuously over an infectious cell's lifespan, rather than as a single burst at the end of the cell's lifespan, does not result in an increased risk of infection extinction. We show, instead, that the number of virus released, not the timing of the release, affects infection establishment and associated critical antiviral efficacy.

The infectivity of a virus sample is measured by the infections it causes, via a plaque or focus forming assay (PFU or FFU) or an endpoint dilution (ED) assay (TCID$_{50}$, CCID$_{50}$, EID$_{50}$, etc., hereafter collectively ID$_{50}$). The counting of plaques or foci at a given dilution intuitively and directly provides the concentration of infectious doses in the undiluted sample. However, it has many technical and experimental limitations. For example, it relies on one's judgement in distinguishing between two merged plaques and a larger one, or between small plaques and staining artifacts. In this regard, ED assays are more robust because one need only determine whether infection occurred. The output of the ED assay, the 50% infectious dose (ID$_{50}$), is calculated using either the Spearman-Karber (SK, 1908,1931) or Reed-Muench (RM, 1938) mathematical approximations. However, these are often miscalculated and their ID$_{50}$ approximation is biased. We propose that the PFU and FFU assays be abandoned, and that the measured output of the ED assay, the ID$_{50}$, be replaced by a more useful measure we coined Specific INfections (SIN). We introduce a free, open-source web-application, midSIN, that computes the SIN concentration in a virus sample from a standard ED assay, requiring no changes to current experimental protocols. We demonstrate that the SIN/mL of a sample reliably corresponds to the number of infections the sample will cause per unit volume, and directly relates to the multiplicity of infection. midSIN estimates are shown to be more accurate and robust than those using the RM and SK approximations. The impact of ED plate design choices (dilution factor, replicates per dilution) on measurement accuracy is also explored. The simplicity of SIN as a measure and the greater accuracy of midSIN make them an easy, superior replacement for the PFU, FFU, and ID$_{50}$ measures.

A virus infection can be initiated with very few or even a single infectious virion, and as such can become extinct, i.e. stochastically fail to take hold or spread significantly. There are many ways that a fully competent infectious virion, having successfully entered a cell, can fail to cause a productive infection, i.e. one that yields infectious virus progeny. Though many discrete, stochastic mathematical models (DSMs) have been developed and used to estimate a virus infection's extinction probability, these typically neglect infection failure post viral entry. The DSM presented herein introduces parameter $γ\in(0,1]$ which corresponds to the probability that a virion's entry into a cell will result in a productive cell infection. We derive an expression for the likelihood of infection extinction in this new DSM, and find that prophylactic therapy with an antiviral acting to reduce $γ$ is best at increasing an infection's extinction probability, compared to antivirals acting on the rates of virus production or virus entry into cells. Using the DSM, we investigate the difference in the fraction of cells consumed by so-called extinct versus established virus infections, and find that this distinction becomes biologically meaningless as the probability of extinction approaches 100%. We show that infections wherein virus is release by an infected cell as a single burst, rather than at a constant rate over the cell's infectious lifespan, has the same probability of infection extinction, despite previous claims to this effect [Pearson 2011, doi:10.1371/journal.pcbi.1001058]. Instead, extending previous work by others [Yan 2016, doi:10.1007/s00285-015-0961-5], we show how the assumed distribution for the stochastic virus burst size, affects the extinction probability and associated critical antiviral efficacy.